50NL FR: Value bet this river?

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
--------------------
HAND #1
--------------------

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $16.25 (32.5 bb)
CO: $7.75 (15.5 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)
SB: $61.55 (123.1 bb)
BB: $10.15 (20.3 bb)
UTG+1: $49.05 (98.1 bb)
UTG+2: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
MP1: $98.45 (196.9 bb)
Hero (MP2): $101 (202 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with Q
club.gif
Q
diamond.gif

UTG+1 raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.75, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.75

Flop: ($8.25) 2
spade.gif
Q
heart.gif
9
spade.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5.75, UTG+1 calls $5.75

Turn: ($19.75) 5
diamond.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $12.75, UTG+1 calls $12.75

River: ($45.25) A
spade.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ???

Villain is 26/6/2 over 100 hands (all previous to this session). WTSD 28%. W$SD 48%. Can we get a value bet in on the end here?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
I prolly bet, cuz I can't not bet sets, and he's got fishy stats. But as far as putting him on a range, who knows. You'd think flush draws would make up a big part of it, but its harder for him to have FD's in a 3-bet pot...

Yeah, I'd prolly go ahead & shove the river, but I have no justification for it :D.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
Yeah I go ahead and VB here. He is fishy, but god I hate it when they check/call, chk/shove with the nuts :(
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
I took all my time thinking about betting but then I wussed out and checked behind. He showed TT and I took the pot. I was torn between betting because so much of his range made 2 pair on the river and the rest either made a flush or was folding to any bet. The part of me that was scared of the flush won out in the end.
 
Top