re: Poker & [50NL FR] TPTK River Value Bet?
Chuck, why so sure he's stacking light? We only have 20 hands on him. Even so, the stats indicate that while he's been loose calling, he's not very aggressive.
I would bet the turn. If he had more chips, I'd fold to a shove, but I don't think you can get away from it having raised the flop (not criticizing the raise; in fact I'd have raised more). If there weren't many draws, I think checking the turn could be good for pot control, but there are quite a few draws. The turn is the perfect spot to price out the draws.
If called, I'd shove the river for value. If anything he's a calling station, so I'm betting for value the whole way.
As played I'm value betting big (full pot, maybe larger) on the river. This is a great spot to rep a busted draw, having raised the flop and taken the free card on the turn.