50NL FR TPTK in 3 bet pot w/wet board

Stacks:
* BB with $10.80
* UTG with $45.50
* UTG+1 with $14.40
* MP1 with $46.75
* MP2 with $44.85
* MP3 with $28.00
* CO with $94.20
* BTN with $55.50
* SB with $50.25




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to BTN:K♦ A♠
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP1 raises $1.50 to $2
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero raises $4.50 to $6.50
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP1 calls [$4.50]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: $13.75
Flop:
* * Q♣ 8♠ K♣
* * MP1: checks
* * Hero: checks
* * Potsize: $13.75
Turn:
* * 7♠
* * MP1: checks
* * Hero bets [$7.50]
* * MP1 calls [$7.50]
* * Potsize: $28.75
River:
* * J♥
* * MP1: checks

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

Villain is 17/10/1.2 over 200 hands. Folds to 3 bet 60% albeit over only 5 hands. I check back the flop figuring that I'm probably folding out the majority of hands I actually beat. Turn figures to be a blank so I bet that, probably could have bet more I suppose. Don't really like the river J as JJ just got there. Is a vbet on the river a bit too thin?

yeah i just check behind the river as i doubt anything will call you

i mean i guess if this guy is terrible (his stats dont imply that) maybe he'll look you up with AQ but thats about it

i mean JJ is there, QQ got there as did aces and kings and even though all those are unlikely to be held by villian i also think hes unlikely holding anything he can call you with on the river

like to say i like checking back the flop and the turn bet seems fine but could probably be $9 or so

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: Pokerstars
* * Dealt to BTN:K♦ A♠
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP1 raises $1.50 to $2
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero raises $4.50 to $6.50 <---PF is good.
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP1 calls [$4.50]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: $13.75
Flop:
* * Q♣ 8♠ K♣
* * MP1: checks
* * Hero: checks <---I don't understand a check here..with the FD and possible broadway draws on board, a free card is pretty terrible.
* * Potsize: $13.75
Turn:
* * 7♠
* * MP1: checks
* * Hero bets [$7.50] <--- ~1/2 pot bet isn't bad, I'd like more of a $9 or so, but, still not awful.
* * MP1 calls [$7.50]
* * Potsize: $28.75
River:
* * J♥
* * MP1: checks
As played, what type of hand do you put him on? With your check on the flop, he may think an AQ is good here, so a value bet may get called. Do you think he's going to check three jacks if made on the river? Without stack sizes, it's hard to really know how much, if anything, to bet on the end for value.

Click to expand...

above.

Shrog, Stack sizes in OP. As for flop play, what calls our bet that we beat? There really are not any draws out there. I know you said the FD and possible broadway, but tbh you don't see a lot of people playing those types of drawing hands OOP in a 3 bet pot. Not that I can completely discount them, just that they make up such a small portion of villain's range that it is almost not worth worrying about.

If we assign him a range of 10s+, AQ, AK, that leaves us about 58% on the river.

Board: Kc Qc 8s 7s Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.065% 48.39% 09.68% 15 3.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 41.935% 32.26% 09.68% 10 3.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Is this a decent range to put him on? Like I said in another post, 3 bet pots are probably one of my biggest leaks. Problem is, if we use this range, 1010 is not calling a river bet, leaving just JJ+, AQ/AK, which is roughly a coinflip with me.

As for flop play, what calls our bet that we beat?

Click to expand...

You're right, not many hands are ahead of you on the flop. HOWEVER, if this is the case, why not 1. C/bet and try to end the hand here, or 2. Make it expensive if the opponent wants to draw? Are you saying you check the flop because the only hands that are going to call are AA/QQ/88/KQ?

Phatjose,

Your base theory puts you in a lose/lose situation. You are saying if you hit TPTK and bet it is guaranteed they will fold lesser hands, i.e. you lose. However, if they call they must have a better hand, i.e. you lose.

I think the hand is pretty straight forward. It is a case of each player worried the other has a monster (unless villain of course truly does have a monster).

Follow villains thought process. Your stiff reraise instantly narrows your hand range to JJ+ or AK. His call puts him roughly in the same hand range ball park. Flop comes so as the villain I check to the raiser regardless of what I hit.

When you check behind villain rules out you holding AA or AK. Villain is not going to consider that you are having some weird poker epiphany going on in your head that is placing you in a lose lose scenario. If I'm villain your check makes me pretty confident you hold JJ and the two overs on the flop scared you or you hit a monster flop.

So on the turn if I'm villain and you showed weakness postflop why don't I lead out? I know you don't have AA or AK so whatever I hold that was good enough to call a stiff reraise must be good. But I still don't lead out. I'm either scared you are slowplaying a set or I'm the one with the set. You bet $7.50 and I call. As villain I now consider including AQ and KQ in your stiff reraise range. So I have you on AQ,KQ,KK,QQ,JJ. So as villain what do I have? Possibly I hold AQ, KQ, KK, QQ, or playing AA scared. When I hold AK I usually rule out my opponent holding AA or KK (not that it can't or hasn't happened), so lets say villains range is AQ,KQ,QQ.

J hits on the river. Based on the raise pflop and your check post flop this is a card I didn't want to see. I think there is a strong chance you hold JJ and I am still highly confident you don't hold AK. I thought my AQ or KQ was good here, but with a J hitting I may have just lost the hand. So I check...this kinda of rules out villain holding QQ unless he plays really that scared.

So what should you do on the river? Check, because at this point there is really only one hand you can realistically get value from, AQ. Going with your lose/lose philosophy if villain holds AQ and you bet they will most likely think long and hard and then think you must have being slowplaying a monster or you hit your set on the river and they fold, so you get no value. And if villain has KQ or was slowplaying even a bigger hand you lose either way.

The reason we three-bet preflop is to get value from underpairs who won't pay us if we hit, to weed out drawing hands and to play big pots with single pair holdings. I like a check if the board is K 7 2 rainbow, but not here. Bet 2/3 pot and if you get called, reevaluate. Villain is showing real weakness on the river so a value bet is definitely in order.