Originally Posted by dsvw56
I don't think he's ever bluffing enough on the river to make up for the equity you lose by not charging hands that will call a turn shove, but not a river shove. And value betting the river get's tricky if he does check it, so I prefer to get it in here.
In a vacuum it's much better to call here given that we fold out a ton of bluffs by shoving, if we do indeed believe his turn donking range is more than just draws + Qx (which it would be, unless he's a nitbox), and if he donks the turn like that, he's donking the river almost 100% of the time, even if his draws missed given the size of the pot. However he is folding all of his bluffs (and a lot of weird 99-type hands) to a turn raise. (We also don't need to raise to protect our equity in this spot.)
In this particular situation, shoving seems standard on the turn.