[50NL FR] Top 2 vs massive river shove

B

bw07507

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Villain is 16/12/1.67 over 25 hands
I have been TAG

pokerstars Game #18637192112: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/07/06 - 22:09:28 (ET)
Table 'Gormeisa IV' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: bw07507 ($56.90 in chips)
Seat 2: cjrudy ($93.20 in chips)
Seat 3: JediCouncil ($11.95 in chips)
Seat 4: albertcheng1 ($52.05 in chips)
Seat 5: GoldenIce ($56.80 in chips)
Seat 6: shane2886 ($49.10 in chips)
Seat 7: jameric2 ($15.90 in chips)
Seat 8: Polorium ($9 in chips)
JediCouncil: posts small blind $0.25
albertcheng1: posts big blind $0.50
phidelt799: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [8h Ks]
GoldenIce: folds
shane2886: folds
jameric2: folds
Polorium: folds
bw07507: raises $1.50 to $2
cjrudy: folds
JediCouncil: folds
Polorium is sitting out
albertcheng1: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [4s 5s Kd]
albertcheng1: checks
bw07507: bets $3
albertcheng1: calls $3
*** TURN *** [4s 5s Kd] [8d]
albertcheng1: checks
bw07507: bets $7
albertcheng1: calls $7
*** RIVER *** [4s 5s Kd 8d] [3c]
albertcheng1: bets $40.05 and is all-in
bw07507: ?
 
daxter70

daxter70

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444??
i wouldnt put him on 67...thats just me...i have been wrong:cool:
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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$40 to win $65, yes?

The hand we're hoping to beat is either a very weirdly played AK (or AA?) or something like 5-3 or 4-3 that were peeling and then decided to shove their rivered two pair. And in my experience, these hands are only rarely doing something so crazy as to open shove with a massive overbet.

He could also be bluffing. But again, bluffs don't have to be so huge to be effective, and most players know this. So bluffs, too, are rare. Not even the cumulative probability of these two rare events are enough getting an effective price of 1.6:1, as far as I'm concerned.

I make hero calls all over the place, but I'm trying to limit them to situations where the bet gives me somewhat decent pot odds. That isn't the case here, and I believe a fold is in order.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Fold preflop.

As played, i would tend to fold. You may be against a missed flush draw turned into a bluff, but I think you see sets, 67 and A2 sooted too often here to make a hero call profitable.
 
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bw07507

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I think a set or turned straight raises like 95% of the time on the turn with 2 flush draws out there and 3 connected cards, especially against someone like me who will steal very wide and its possible I have a 6 or 7 in my hand.
 
Jagsti

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I fold this pf, as played I/m folding the river. Interestingly FP, at what stage or odds would we require here to make this an +ev call.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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The pot is ~$25. I call any donkbet up to about pot size, since I think we're ahead more than a third of the time when he does it.

On a related note, I've noticed that small bluff bets are pretty common at $50NL and $100NL and I'm wondering if they're common because they're profitable. Do multitablers not consider pot odds before laying down weak hands to river bets?

I.e.: $100NL. TT in the cutoff, open to $4, small blind calls. K-7-5r flop, SB checks, we bet $6. SB calls. Turn is a Q. SB checks, but floats often so we bet again, this time $12, planning to check behind on the river.

River is a second K, and SB bets out $10. Do people seriously fold to that bet? What if he bets $20?
 
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