50nl FR QQ vs. check-shove on ragged flop

pokerstars GAME #16203637982: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/03/23 - 22:17:51 (ET)
Table 'Ninina II' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: zachvac ($51.45 in chips)
Seat 2: jclib ($47.65 in chips)
Seat 3: ChainChucker ($91.05 in chips)
Seat 4: TOPX ($58.05 in chips)
Seat 5: spadtz ($9.65 in chips)
Seat 6: transl8r ($30.10 in chips)
Seat 7: Zenzor ($59.60 in chips)
Seat 9: ms_prissjone ($40.25 in chips)
jclib: posts small blind $0.25
ChainChucker: posts big blind $0.50
AliG147: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zachvac [Qh Qs]
TOPX: raises $1.50 to $2
spadtz: folds
transl8r: folds
transl8r leaves the table
Zenzor: folds
ms_prissjone: folds
zachvac: raises $3 to $5
jclib: folds
ChainChucker: folds
TOPX: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [5s 7h 4s]
TOPX: checks
seadragon68 joins the table at seat #6
zachvac: bets $4
TOPX: raises $49.05 to $53.05 and is all-in
zachvac: ????

villain is 14/3/0.75 over ~70 hands

I think this is a fold, especially considering villains nitty stats. That is a terribly coordinated flop.

What's with the small betting?

How does he see you?

I think the question is whether or not he's doing this with JJ/TT. Most players aren't tricky enough to smooth call KK/AA and then ch-r the flop (I've only run into like 3 people who do it regularly at 100nl), and so I think his range is mostly weighted to JJ/TT/AKs.

I'm not sure players who are this tight raise the smaller pairs utg so we can be pretty sure we're not setted here. I'm not sure exactly how long it takes AF to normalize, so I'm not sure how accurate his is, but if it is accurate it definitely adds to the argument of folding.

Nasty spot, but I think we can define his range a lot better by betting 'normally' and putting out $6 pf and $9 on the flop.

I think we can define his range a lot better by betting 'normally' and putting out $6 pf and $9 on the flop.

Click to expand...

Agreed. I see AK/JJ/TT as more likely the AA/KK, but I would have liked to see bigger bets from you both pre and post flop. The only caveat being that perhaps he is so passive that he'd not 4bet KK preflop fearing an A high flop.

Equities vary greatly depending on what pairs we include in his range, but we're a favourite regardless. I think I get it in here.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.175% 47.91% 03.27% 12331 841.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 48.825% 45.56% 03.27% 11726 841.50 { TT+, AsKs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.650% 79.88% 04.77% 11071 661.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 15.350% 10.58% 04.77% 1466 661.50 { QQ-TT, AsKs }

i really hate your flop bet size

marginal spot. i actually probably fold because this guy may be too passive to even shove AKs here, as well as possibly too passive to raise TT UTG. and hell, if he did he likely wouldn't be doing this with TT on the flop... not too hot with JJ either, but more conceivable i guess

but then i never make incredibly weak bets like this, so i don't know if maybe people tend to react to them differently.. bet normal!!

ok I have no idea why I only bet $4 postflop there, but in terms of preflop 3-betting, what is considered standard? After a lot of comments here saying my 3-bets were too small, I've started popping $2 bets to $6 and $1.50 to $5.50. Anyway, this hand here I thought for a bit, decided that he's rarely doing this with AA, and he's doing this enough with TT/JJ/AKs/other crazy hands like top pair and other flush draws. So I call, he flips over KK, he wins.

I hate to change my reply after the results have been posted, but I think this is much closer to a fold than a call. I think, like combu mentioned, that a) he doesn't do this with <JJ/AKs frequently enough and b) does it with KK frequently enough that we should be folding.

Again, easy to say after the results have been posted, but I think I maintain a pretty objective point of view and I do think it's a fold. I mean taking a step back and looking at his stats, he almost never does this with TT and not very often with JJ.