[50NL FR] QQ 3bets a short-stack shove and gets flat called

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Preflop action is a bit unusual. Not sure what I should do after the SS open-shoves. Flat-call? Raise more?

treyjunkin flat calls my 20BB raise and the flop comes all unders with a J. He's 13/8/2 over 200 hands. Am I correct to bet this flop?

full tilt poker Game #7283210675: Table Far Hills - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:41:00 ET - 2008/07/19
Seat 1: DKH ($26.40)
Seat 2: SColey ($104.50)
Seat 3: lasro ($75.05)
Seat 4: renzydawg ($28.65), is sitting out
Seat 5: eze2985 ($9.75)
Seat 6: treyjunkin ($54.10)
Seat 7: alizad89 ($4.30)
Seat 8: rs20138 ($50)
Seat 9: BelgoSuisse ($50.20)
eze2985 posts the small blind of $0.25
treyjunkin posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [Qc Qd]
renzydawg has returned
alizad89 raises to $4.30, and is all in
rs20138 folds
BelgoSuisse raises to $10.50
DKH folds
SColey folds
lasro folds
eze2985 folds
treyjunkin has 15 seconds left to act
treyjunkin calls $10
*** FLOP *** [2s Jh 4c]
treyjunkin checks
BelgoSuisse has 15 seconds left to act
BelgoSuisse bets $25
treyjunkin raises to $43.60, and is all in
BelgoSuisse calls $14.70, and is all in
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Eew. Against a TAG, I could almost get away from this hand. I don't think he does this with TT or AK. The nits at microstakes tend to be pretty predictable.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Weird, I have 233 hands on this guy and his line for me is 18/13/6. Seems like a solid enough player too from my memory. I've seen him check boards with over PPs as well as air, but since you bet and he shoves, its no bluff from this guy.

I can't imagine he makes the PF call with AJ. That puts him on JJ or KK since he certainly would have reraised PF with AA and we're assuming that since you have the QQ he does not. He could have something stupid like 99 or TT with the plan that if there is only 1 over he just shoves no matter what.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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The preflop raise was good, and post-flop you're in all likelyhood committed given the sizes of the remaining stacks. And you're clearly not folding to his re-raise. So what should be looked at is the size of the flop bet.
  • Would a smaller bet have gotten more worse hands to call? Unlikely. It's a very dry board and if he flopped any piece of it, he's almost certainly committed.
  • Would a smaller bet have saved us money in the event that we are checkraised all-in and folded? No. With an overpair, we're committed unless it's Tighty McNittypants that never checkraises that just did. And this player doesn't qualify.
  • Should we check the flop? No, I don't think so. Given how dry the flop is, we're more likely than usual to get looked up by 88-TT and AJ/KJs/QJs. Perhaps you think these hands are out of his range, but while unlikely, they're not impossible.
To remove doubt as to whether or not we should call his checkraise:

What beats us: Sets and AA/KK. There are 9 possible sets (all in his range, I suppose, although I think that it's spewing to be calling with 22/44 in his spot). There are 6 AA and 6 KK.

So 21 hands beat us.

If we throw 77-TT into the mix, that's another 24 hands that we do beat. Of course, these can be somewhat discounted because he would be taking a bit of a weird line with them. But even if these hands are a possibility only a fraction of the time we still have to call. If this can be - and I admit that it's unlikely - a very weirdly played AK who panics because he missed the flop and thinks you might be full of air, then we have an extremely easy call.

Making big laydowns with overpairs has its moments, but not in 3-bet pots. If you make the call and he turns over AA, it'll suck, but this is not the place to try to increase your win-rate. :)
 
Last edited:
dsvw56

dsvw56

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there's only 6 combos of each pair, not 12
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Er. Yes. This is right.

I'm clearly not at my best this morning. Editing the first post. Thanks.
 
C

ColdDeckCity

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As Paul said

"Making big laydowns with overpairs has its moments, but not in 3-bet pots. If you make the call and he turns over AA, it'll suck, but this is not the place to try to increase your win-rate."

Agreed, in this case once all that money is in there you have to put the rest in. IF you were in a massive deep stacked game or a tourney with both of you deep then it would be a different matter
 
Tygran

Tygran

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.
  • unless it's Tighty McNittypants....


I'm going to see if I can get that screenname at the next site I sign up for.

On a more serious note. very nice post FP.. pretty much said everything that needs to be said.
 
H

Hisx1ncPS

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I can see him calling PF with 1010/JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK

The QQ is unlikely since you have it
The JJ would be a loose call IMO, but its possible someone would call with this
1010 would be less likely than JJ I think.

I would bet he had trips, but that's after the fact, knowing he re-raised you on the flop bet.
 
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