50NL FR, light 3 bet turns into pair + draw

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phatjose

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Villain in this hand is 15/12/2.8 with 35% ATS over ~450 hands. We also got involved in a hand where I 3 bet him with AK, he calls OOP, flop came out paired and raggy, he checks, I cbet, he raises, I shove over the top figuring I'm folding out most small pairs that pull this. FWIW I'm pretty sure he doesn't understand Yeti thereom, which is why I pulled that move. Anyway he managed to flop his full house (he had 33), so he obv stacked.

I play about 14/11 or 15/12 depending on how the table is set up and my 3 bet % is only like 4% so if he's running a HUD, he should be seeing that I'm not normally 3 betting light.


Stacks:
* UTG with $4.60
* UTG+1 with $45.00
* MP1 with $10.20
* MP2 with $56.60
* AlexB182s with $81.00
* BTN with $14.80
* SB with $20.80
* BB with $56.95

hand.pl


hand.pl

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to BB:5♦ 8♦
* * Sklansky group 8
Preflop:
* * 4 players fold.
* * alexb182s raises $1 to $1.50
* * 2 players fold.
Hero raises $3.50 to $5
* * alexb182s calls [$3.50]
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: $10.25
Flop: 9♦ 5♠ 3♥ Hero bets [$6]
* * alexb182s calls [$6]
* * Potsize: $22.25
Turn: Q♦

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

What's our move for the turn?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Bet the turn for like 12, since if he bets close to pot I don't think we'll have much fold equity shoving all in. Btw, why 3-bet light against a TAG-nit who obviously doesn't like folding with this hand?
 
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phatjose

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Because his ATS is so huge compared to his normal raising range that I'm really playing the situation, not my cards.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Well you need to consider your hand, since he probably hates folding to 3-bets. Additionally, is 35% steal even that large? I play 6-max, and I run about 50%... He's going to call you a lot it seems. So you're going to be OOP, with a hand that's behind his range. Not something I'd be all that happy about to be honest.

You're re-stealing preflop with this hand, but if he never folds to 3-bets, then how can we re-steal? Your mainly 3-betting for fold equity, but you have none preflop.
 
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phatjose

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FR plays quite a bit different than 6 max with regards to 3 bets. 35% ATS is a pretty healthy stealing % and if a person is running with around that number, I'm def looking for spots to light 3 bet them. Also, there's not a ton of light 3 betting at 50 NL FR. Certainly your better regs will do it, but there's just so many people that play first level thinking, it just doesn't come up that often. Trust me when I say that I have huge respect for your game C9, but I think this is one of those glaring differences between 6 max and FR with regards to the preflop decision.
 
eagle jim

eagle jim

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I agree with you on the three bet thing with 50 nl fr, even more evident at 25nl fr. Three bets pre flop are just not much a part of the game. Usually get a pre flop raise and a cold caller or two but not much 3 betting.
Would it not be best here to check/call the turn......small hand/small pot kinda thing. If we lead out again are we willing to call a shove with a pair of 5's and a flush draw.
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Would it not be best here to check/call the turn......small hand/small pot kinda thing.
The pot is already big, and we're out of position. Villain can easily get us all in if he likes, so pot control is totally a moot at this point in the hand.

The Q is a good scare card, and a second barrel may force hands like TT, JJ, T9, J9 to fold. Additionally, we pick up some more equity so this bluff has to work less often. And since he knows we're at least aggressive enough to c-bet, he may be floating us here with something like AK, 77, ect.

Lastly, are we calling a shove? Well that's just pot odds, but if we bet 12, he shoves, it costs us 33.95 to win roughly $80. So we're getting 2.35:1. If we assume our draw to two pair is good, then we have a 2.57:1 draw. So no, we can't call a shove profitably.

And who do you agree with on the 3-bet thing, me or jose?
 
eagle jim

eagle jim

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Jose on the 3 bet thing......3 bets are just not much a part of the Full Ring 50nl and lower game in my experience. However having said that and re-reading your post....I do see the advantage in leading out on the turn (betting the queen). Gets back to betting what they don't have, not necessarily what we have. Crap...the more I learn the more I don't know......liked it better when I was dumb and broke. Now, I'm even dumber and just not so broke.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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i don't really like it preflop. 35% ats is not that high, and most of it probably comes from steals from BTN and SB, so he may not be opening up that much from CO (do you have his CO ATS?).

As played, i like a second barrel very much.
 
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