50NL FR JJ on rag flop

Stacks:
* SB with $24.20
* BB with $10.50
* UTG with $31.90
* MP1 with $50.00
* MP2 with $9.25
* CO with $70.80
* BTN with $21.35




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to CO:J♥ J♠
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * MP1 raises $1.50 to $2
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$2]
* * 3 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 5
* * Potsize: $4.75
Flop:
* * 5♠ 2♥ 4♦
* * MP1 bets [$4.55]
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero raises $9.45 to $14
* * MP1 raises $34 to $48 [ all-in ]
* * Hero ????


Villain in this hand is 22/21/4 over ~250 hands. Flop AF of 6.5 and Afq of 72. Also goes to showdown 45%. Other stats available on request. Couple hands earlier I watched him raise flop, and then stack turn with 2nd pair in a limped, multiway pot. I really hate JJ in this spot, but I think his range is wide enough to get it in? And yes, I know I should be value 3 betting preflop with this. Just one of those hands that got a little lost in the multitable shuffle.

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I'm OK with flatting JJ in position and I think it's fine if you stack off here based on reads.

I'm never folding TPTK or better against anyone with those stats 100bb's deep.

I still think you need to 3-bet preflop. Since this guy is so aggressive preflop, you should be 3-betting him with a wide value range, and JJ is included in that. So I 3-bet/call shove pre & get it in on the flop.

If you hate JJ I would opt to 3bet pre; you have less decisions to make.

But yeah, with that post flop aggression stats I'd probably go.

Do you think I'm right in thinking he shows up with 99 or AK here more often than QQ+?

baudib1 said:

Do you think I'm right in thinking he shows up with 99 or AK here more often than QQ+?

Click to expand...

I think he shows up with 66-TT more often than QQ-AA only because that's more hands.

AK, A5, 56 are probalby in his range too.