[50NL FR] AK buids huge pot preflop when squeeze gets called

I squeeze two villains with AK and get 2 callers, which makes a 50BB pot preflop. Should I check-fold unimproved as a c-bet pot commits me?

full tilt poker Game #7283336773: Table Yellow Sage - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:59:49 ET - 2008/07/19
Seat 1: mrboogins ($23.10)
Seat 2: fando5 ($11)
Seat 3: igaveitashot ($110.20)
Seat 4: BelgoSuisse ($50.20)
Seat 5: El Nino 1 ($50)
Seat 6: htb21 ($47)
Seat 7: Hearts Alive ($40.70)
Seat 8: deuceboss ($53.05)
Seat 9: Dead_Money_Ace ($138.40)
BelgoSuisse posts the small blind of $0.25
El Nino 1 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [Ks Ad]
htb21 folds
Hearts Alive raises to $2
deuceboss folds
Dead_Money_Ace calls $2
mrboogins folds
fando5 folds
igaveitashot folds
BelgoSuisse raises to $8.50
El Nino 1 folds
Hearts Alive calls $6.50
Dead_Money_Ace calls $6.50
*** FLOP *** [Jc 3s 4d]
BelgoSuisse bets $18.50
Hearts Alive calls $18.50
Dead_Money_Ace folds
*** TURN *** [Jc 3s 4d] [Ts]
BelgoSuisse bets $14
Hearts Alive calls $13.70, and is all in

The flop texture seems pretty good for a cbet, but since your out of position against 2 players, your pretty much betting out blindly without any information and costing you a huge chunk of your stack to do so. I would just check fold here and save your ammo.

/me votes for check/fold, and I'm certainly not double-barreling a ten on the turn.

I c-bet way way less in 3-bet pots.

c9h13no3 said:

/me votes for check/fold, and I'm certainly not double-barreling a ten on the turn.

I c-bet way way less in 3-bet pots.

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Why c-bet less 3-way? Often I don't c-bet at all 3-way, but when I do, all other things being equal, I tend to bet more since if the first person calls, the second gets decent pot odds especially if I bet less.

I'm probably not double-barrelling the T on the turn either.

NineLions said:

Why c-bet less 3-way? Often I don't c-bet at all 3-way, but when I do, all other things being equal, I tend to bet more since if the first person calls, the second gets decent pot odds especially if I bet less.

I'm probably not double-barrelling the T on the turn either.

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I meant less as in frequency. Not in amount. And I didn't mean 3-way, I meant pots that had been 3-bet preflop. Your opponents are far more likely to have a hand.

This isn't a terrible flop to c-bet 3-way, since its so dry, and the J will scare off lower pairs. I still probably wouldn't bet it with 3 players in the pot & 3-bet very strongly preflop.

My analysis (feedback is appreciated)

I personally would not have bet out in that situation after the flop because your opponent definitely had something. I would have assumed he was holding something like 88-QQ. If he had AA or KK he would most likely have re-raised you all in preflop. Also, for him to call your raise with 22-77 doesn't make too much sense since he is probably at best a coin flip to win the hand. If you have evidence that he is a donk, he could be playing a lower pocket pair.

Post flop i think theres a decent chance he hit trips with JJ or has an over pocket pair of QQ, and if he did, he is just going to use your aggression against you. If you C-Bet here I think you can only get hurt, and you don't really gain any information. I think you need to check this one, and fold if raised depending on the pot odds, since JJ and QQ are both probably not letting those hands go, and its a decent percentage of his range. I think by betting $18.50 here, you are risking to lose it, but I don't think there would be a situation where he calls, and you win it.

I also think that the re-raise to 8.50 is a little steep, because you can get the same information cheaper in my opinion. I think $6 here is about as much as it would take. If he calls it tells you something (mid high pocket pair to QQ probably), and if he would fold to $8.50, he would probably also fold to $6.00. A raise to $8.50 screams that "I have a good, yet beatable hand" in my opinion.

Feedback on my analysis is greatly appreciated as well. I would like to see how it matches up with a more experienced player's.

Hisx1ncPS said:

I also think that the re-raise to 8.50 is a little steep, because you can get the same information cheaper in my opinion. I think $6 here is about as much as it would take.

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8.50 is just betting pot. And when I raise preflop I expect and want villains to fold. It's highly unusual that both villains call a squeeze.

I put both villains on AK or pocket pairs queens or lower as I would expect KK+ to 4bet preflop, and other hands to fold. I'm behind or tied with 100% of that range, but I think I can fold AK and TT-, which should make cbetting profitable here, provided there's enough such hands in their range to balance the times where I face QQ and JJ who are not going away.

Turn bet is pure spew on the other hand.

BelgoSuisse shows [Ks Ad]
Hearts Alive shows [Js Jh]
Uncalled bet of $0.30 returned to BelgoSuisse
*** RIVER *** [Jc 3s 4d Ts] [Kd]
BelgoSuisse shows a pair of Kings
Hearts Alive shows three of a kind, Jacks
Hearts Alive wins the pot ($87.40) with three of a kind, Jacks

ok first off turn bet is pure spew imo, but seems you already know this. This is a case where I love being able to utilize the HEM pop-up feature where it'll give you what kind of range opponents have calling 3-bets, as I think it's really important here. If you don't have this or there's a small sample size I'd C/F this. There are 2 opponents and their ranges are basically AK/pocket pairs they won't fold, and you beat exactly none of this range. Figure you fold out AK, you're just not giving yourself odds on this bluff. Your equity if called is very small, and with a decent-sized bet you need both opponents to fold a lot more often than they will imo.

yea typically i'd just vomit when i saw both call and c/f unimproved.

and i don't really think this is a great flop to c-bet anyways. villain's probably have pps or ak, and pps aren't likely to fold this seeing as you are exactly showing up here with AJ and they probably would have folded preflop if they really thought a large part of your range included aa/kk, seeing as you get useless odds to set mine when a pot is squeezed.

probably make this 10$ preflop, but honestly, and this might seem a little weak, but i'd probably just flat this preflop and c/f flop unimproved, unless you have some stats saying villains are going to be folding to pf 3bets/have a wide opening range. more and more i'm just tryign to advoid getting into bad spots, even if it means throwing away good hands, because there are simply better spots to play.

sqeezing from the blinds is ok, but if your oppoents aren't going to fold preflop and you know they havce good hands then more times then not you are getting yoruself into a shitty position when you miss the flop and have no clue what to do from oop.

feitr said:

i'd probably just flat this preflop and c/f flop unimproved

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Um, I'm squeezing a HUGE range here, and this is towards the top of it! This has gotta be like the worst line on the planet. AK is gonna hit the flop only ~30% of the time. However, it has HUGE value preflop. I'm 3-betting here EVERY time.

You know you can play pots that aren't from the button in this game...

um that has nothing to do with my post whatsoever. I only said i would consider flatting this preflop vs players who have very tight opening ranges like is obviously teh case in this hand. I have absolutely no problem squeezing with s/cs etc let alone ak. However, if you are squeezing this vs players who have tight raising/cold calling preflop ranges who aren't going to be folding preflop, this line is going to get you into alot of trouble oftentimes (like a JJ+ AQ+ range or something...).

Obviously, this is far easier if you pick it up preflop or maybe get one caller since the pot is much smaller. My point is that this situation is a horrible spot to be in...namely you have a huge pot, you are missing the flop 2/3 of the time while the callers almost always have a made pair and you are completely oop. Nothing you really do from this point on can be +ev unless you can make somebody fold an overpair or get somebody to stack off with an underpair and both are unlikely. I think most ppls thought processes are pretty simplistic in this situation if they are holding a hand like qq/jj and that is that they will stack off if no a or k shows up and fold if one does. But again, there is absolutely nothing wrong with squeezing here. I certainly would squeeze here 99% of the time vs unknowns. But if i was to know before i squeezed that i would get both callers, then i would flat preflop and only play if i improved, and obviously there are stats that can indicate if that might be the case. So what i was saying was results-oriented, and, as such, isn't exactly a line you would take since anybody who opens qq is also opening aq and will fold to the squeeze. Obviously squeezing and getting two callers is completely bizzare.

So yea squeezing works, but squeezing works because ppl fold not because you are actually playing the damn hand after the flop oop vs players who have tight ranges preflop. There is nothing wrong with folding good hands when they are going to put you in terrible spots. I'd rather be playing a crap hand in position vs a fish than a good hand oop vs a good opponent. Far too many ppl are liek "omg ak it is such a pro hand i must go to the felt with it" even tho it might be putting you in a very tough spot.

Basically my point summed up is that squeezing is when you make a large raise because you believe the players who raised/cold called are weak. Your cards don't matter a hell of a lot but your reads of your opponents do. So if your opponents are actually very strong, then obviously squeezing loses alot of its value in such a situation coz you are in a tough spot.

anywyas it is super late and this probably doesn't even make sense to me so gl to anybody that reads it.

feitr said:

However, if you are squeezing this vs players who have tight raising/cold calling preflop ranges who aren't going to be folding preflop, this line is going to get you into alot of trouble oftentimes.

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Just where are you getting this read?

c9h13no3 said:

Just where are you getting this read?

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yea that is my point that it is hardly a thing you would normally do sicne it would be hard to get reads that good. As i said, i'd be squeezing this pretty much always. I guess i've just been thinking alot lately about laying down good hands or playing them "differently" when they are going to get you into a bad position.

Anyways, there are still a billion stats on Poker Tracker etc that can give you a very good idea about how effective a squeeze would be if you have alot of hands on somebody. just basic stuff like pfr%, cold call% and fold to pf3bet% etc. If the villains were both like 7/6/3 players, i don't think i'd want to be squeezing this. If only one was a nit then i would etc. The problem with this hand is the extra 6.5 that comes from the 2nd caller because it makes the pot size quite awkward.

Anywyas the hand is quite simple. Squeeze is fine, but the post flop play is complete spew.

after the big contuation bet the other guy is pot commited especially if you bet enough just to get him in i dont think the c-bet on flop was such a good idea 3 handed

A similar hand

Similar hand from tonight's session. Only one caller this time.

Of course he hits a set again so its an easy call for him, but I am correct to cbet otherwise? I mean, do I get him to fold when he does not hit his set?

Full Tilt poker game #7302279237: Table Salem (deep) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:10:53 ET - 2008/07/20
Seat 1: TheBoris7 ($22.15)
Seat 2: HyperR ($50)
Seat 3: BelgoSuisse ($65.65)
Seat 4: ndsubison_21 ($75.10)
Seat 5: Irwin Fletcher ($91.45)
Seat 6: jonesed007 ($36.85)
Seat 7: Chase2468 ($150.55)
Seat 8: BigB3k ($22.10)
Seat 9: Tromulator ($104.15)
BelgoSuisse posts the small blind of $0.25
ndsubison_21 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [Ks Ah]
Irwin Fletcher folds
jonesed007 calls $0.50
Chase2468 folds
BigB3k folds
Tromulator raises to $2.50
TheBoris7 calls $2.50
HyperR folds
BelgoSuisse raises to $11
ndsubison_21 folds
jonesed007 calls $10.50
Tromulator folds
TheBoris7 has 15 seconds left to act
TheBoris7 folds
*** FLOP *** [Jh 3c 8c]
BelgoSuisse bets $27.50
jonesed007 calls $25.85, and is all in
BelgoSuisse shows [Ks Ah]
jonesed007 shows [8h 8d]
Uncalled bet of $1.65 returned to BelgoSuisse
*** TURN *** [Jh 3c 8c] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [Jh 3c 8c Ac] [6c]
BelgoSuisse shows a pair of Aces
jonesed007 shows three of a kind, Eights
jonesed007 wins the pot ($76.20) with three of a kind, Eights
BelgoSuisse adds $21.20
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $79.20 | Rake $3
Board: [Jh 3c 8c Ac 6c]
Seat 1: TheBoris7 folded before the Flop
Seat 2: HyperR (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: BelgoSuisse (small blind) showed [Ks Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: ndsubison_21 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Irwin Fletcher didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: jonesed007 showed [8h 8d] and won ($76.20) with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 7: Chase2468 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: BigB3k didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Tromulator folded before the Flop

ok first off turn bet is pure spew imo, but seems you already know this. This is a case where I love being able to utilize the HEM pop-up feature where it'll give you what kind of range opponents have calling 3-bets, as I think it's really important here. If you don't have this or there's a small sample size I'd C/F this. There are 2 opponents and their ranges are basically AK/pocket pairs they won't fold, and you beat exactly none of this range. Figure you fold out AK, you're just not giving yourself odds on this bluff. Your equity if called is very small, and with a decent-sized bet you need both opponents to fold a lot more often than they will imo.

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how is the turn bet spew??? The pot is ~65 dollars and villain only has less 14 dollar behind. Are u seriously check/folding here with possibly 10 outs to improve?? I think after u bet flop u are committed and must get the money in on the turn even though u are behind like 90% of the time.

I check/fold this flop and I don't think it's close. Worse hands will never call a c-bet and better hands will very rarely fold, with the possible exception of small pocket pairs and avoiding a chop with another AK. We're opening ourselves up to be bluffed by a worse hand, admittedly, but there aren't that many worse hands that they can have. Sure, some suited connectors and maybe KQ. But they won't always bluff when we check to them. Sometimes we'll see a turn for free and spike an ace or a king (at which point we're likely committed).

I used to protect pots much more aggressively, but it has to be balanced with protecting our stacks, and here I think part of the problem is the psychology of having a monster such as AK and having to give up because the flop didn't do it for us.

I used to c-bet flops like these often. I used to lose a lot of money with AK.

F Paulsson said:

I check/fold this flop and I don't think it's close. Worse hands will never call a c-bet and better hands will very rarely fold, with the possible exception of small pocket pairs and avoiding a chop with another AK. We're opening ourselves up to be bluffed by a worse hand, admittedly, but there aren't that many worse hands that they can have.

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In the second hand, villain has 88. Do you really think he calls my cbet if he does not flop his set?

And if he plays 88, there's a ton of medium pairs and AK in his range that we can fold with a cbet.

Regarding the second hand: Yeah, I think he might. He's getting 2:1 on his money and the flop came without an ace or a king.

But more importantly, there's a 100% difference in number of opponents between hand #1 and hand #2. And I disagree with there being a "ton" of pocket pairs we can fold. Jack-high flop is not a scary board for a medium pocket pair. They fear aces and kings, maybe queens, but not jacks.