$50NL FR, 5/9 on K/6/7/8 board

SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

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Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/06/02 - 00:03:04 (ET)
Table 'Ellicott' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: roryheart ($156.30 in chips)
Seat 3: song1234 ($93.30 in chips) VPIP= 15.48, PFR 8.33, AF = infinate, 3bet = 9.3
Seat 4: SvgePenguin ($50.75 in chips)
Seat 5: deltrw36 ($137.10 in chips)
Seat 6: nazareneoh ($33.65 in chips)
Seat 7: NiteProwler ($53.65 in chips)
Seat 8: nevada1929 ($30 in chips)
Seat 9: NainGors ($40.20 in chips)
song1234: posts small blind $0.25
SvgePenguin: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SvgePenguin [5d 9s]
deltrw36: folds
nazareneoh: folds
NiteProwler: folds
nevada1929 has timed out
nevada1929: folds
nevada1929 is sitting out
NainGors: folds
roryheart: calls $0.50
song1234: calls $0.25
nevada1929 has returned
SvgePenguin: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kd 6c 7s]
song1234: checks
SvgePenguin: checks
roryheart: checks
*** TURN *** [Kd 6c 7s] 8♦
song1234: bets $2
SvgePenguin: raises $3 to $5 (Yeah, too weak. I know)
roryheart: calls $5
song1234: raises $15 to $20
SvgePenguin: ?
 
Last edited:
BelgoSuisse

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I'd shove this one. you'll be up against two pairs, a set, a strong draw or a lower straight more often than against T9.
 
F Paulsson

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The only consideration is whether or not you can get roryheart's stack into the middle as well, but I don't think there are too many hands that he calls the $20 raise with that he won't commit against a push.

Shove it.
 
Jagsti

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Puuuuuuuuuush this baby. He probably has 2pr or fl dr in which case as FP says he's prolly calling.
 
F Paulsson

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Actually, come to think of it, I think there's a pretty good case for just calling:

1. Despite what I said earlier, I think there's some extra chance that rory will overcall.
2. song is rarely bluffing, but the few times he is, we gain from not pushing him off his bluff quite yet.
3. If song and/or rory has a real hand, we're getting all our money in anyway.
4. If rory has a real hand that he'll call a push with now, but a scarecard comes off on the river (e.g. a T), the pot ought to be big enough for him to make a crying call anyway. I don't think he'll fold two-pair often.

So what we need to weight is #4 vs. #2. Will he make a big laydown the times the river brings a scarecard? Or is he always committed to a showdown? If he's committed to a showdown, I think we can just as well call here and pick up a few extra chips on average the times he's bluffing.
 
SavagePenguin

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F Paulsson said:
Actually, come to think of it, I think there's a pretty good case for just calling:
Click to expand...

I called. The river is a second King. Now what?

*** TURN *** [Kd 6c 7s] [8d]
song1234: bets $2
SvgePenguin: raises $3 to $5
roryheart: calls $5
song1234: raises $15 to $20
SvgePenguin: calls $15
roryheart: calls $15
*** RIVER *** [Kd 6c 7s 8d] [Ks] ($41.50 pot)
song1234: bets $25 ($66.50 pot)
SvgePenguin: ?
 
BelgoSuisse

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SavagePenguin said:
I called. The river is a second King. Now what?
Click to expand...

Now you're behind the sets that turned into full houses, and 2 paired hands just got counterfeited and probably would not bet another 25 here. Only realistic hands you beat now are idiot end straights, busted draws and trip kings.

These may be enough of villain's range to make a call correct, but i'd hate to be in your shoes
 
Tygran

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Ewww

About the worst card that could come off.

and song is in the blind which makes this even worse since he could fairly easily have had two pair with the K being one K6, K7, K8. The sets all beat you now obviously and the 9T is still possible. About the only things you DO beat are AK/KQ/busted flush draws and 45.

Something like a KT or maybe a K5 could play this way as well though I guess.

Busted flush draw isn't leading out, not sure 45 is either... AK would have raised preflop and I don't see KQ being that aggressive on earlier streets usually if he's just limping it pre. I can see KT possibly thinking they are good.

I dunno..I strongly expect you are beaten here, so the question is simply do the pots odds require you to call this? It's borderline in my book and I'm probably leaning slightly towards a fold but I wouldn't fault a call either. It's feasible you are up against trip kings and a busted flush, but I wouldn't like making that call one bit...
 
F Paulsson

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Worst card in the deck, but we kinda have to call. If we call and lose to 77, we can take some solace in how we saved money by not pushing the turn. If we call and win vs. a horribly misplayed AK, we can wonder whether or not he would have truly called a turn push and probably pat ourselves on the shoulder for being so smart. :)
 
F Paulsson

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Addition: The reason we have to call is not only because of the pot odds, but also because of the weird action in the hand. Notice that the flop got checked through. Then suddenly everyone wakes up on the turn. I see a common theme in some threads to attribute villain with thinking similar to our own ("AK would have raised preflop"), and that's dangerous. Villain could even have AA here, that he slowplayed on two streets because, well, people do that sometimes.

The point is that he has no idea our hand is as strong as it is, and he has no particular reason to suspect it. We slowplayed the turn. He underestimates our hand. He bets a third of the pot on the river. This could be trips or a full house looking for a call (where trips are, if we look purely at combinatorics, more likely) but it could also be a counterfeited 87s praying that everyone will fold.

Anyway: It needs to be a full house more than 73% of the time. Add in the fact that rory might just call a river bet as well with his K-3 and we even get additional pot odds from that. I think this is AA/trips/bluff more than 27% of the time.
 
Tygran

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F Paulsson said:
Addition: The reason we have to call is not only because of the pot odds, but also because of the weird action in the hand. Notice that the flop got checked through. Then suddenly everyone wakes up on the turn. I see a common theme in some threads to attribute villain with thinking similar to our own ("AK would have raised preflop"), and that's dangerous. Villain could even have AA here, that he slowplayed on two streets because, well, people do that sometimes.

The point is that he has no idea our hand is as strong as it is, and he has no particular reason to suspect it. We slowplayed the turn. He underestimates our hand. He bets a third of the pot on the river. This could be trips or a full house looking for a call (where trips are, if we look purely at combinatorics, more likely) but it could also be a counterfeited 87s praying that everyone will fold.

Anyway: It needs to be a full house more than 73% of the time. Add in the fact that rory might just call a river bet as well with his K-3 and we even get additional pot odds from that. I think this is AA/trips/bluff more than 27% of the time.
Click to expand...


Yeah you are right. I'd call, I just wouldn't be happy about it.
 
V

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I'd call it. The pot odds are great. I don't see roryheart ever having a straight beat here, because he passed on two ideal opportunities to raise a two pair/trips hand on the turn. Most importantly I think, song has the betting lead, so it's perfectly normal for him to bet the river no matter what he had on the turn. His small bet on the river could be designed to sucker you in. Or it could be a shallow value bet with AA or trip kings. Or it could be a strange bluff resulting from him putting you both on busted draws. Or he could have a straight, against which you're 50/50 and getting pot odds for a call. There are too many possibilities in this hand to warrant a fold, IMO.
 
SavagePenguin

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I made the crying call, hoping he had a King or was slow playing A/A or something stupid like that.

*** RIVER *** [Kd 6c 7s 8d] [Ks]
song1234: bets $25
SvgePenguin: calls $25
roryheart: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
song1234: shows [9h Th] (a straight, Six to Ten)
SvgePenguin: mucks hand
song1234 collected $108.50 from pot
 
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