[50nl FR] 4bet PF with AK vs Squeeze from Reg?

icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Situation: Been fairly tight at the table but have a ton of hands versus the villain.

Hero+1 is a 13/4 (24 hands)
MP1 is a 52/4 (24 hands)

CO is a reg I have 700+ hands on (17/13). This guy's 3bet % is 4%, and I don't know his squeeze % (its not in my stats).

What do you think the recommended action should be?

***** Game number #21809043894 *****
Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/11/06 14:12:26 ET
Table 'Jiangxi III' 9-max
Seat 7 (BTN) has the button.
SB posts small blind [$0.25]
BB posts big blind [$0.50]
corruptgovt: sits out
Seat 2 : Hero with $50.00.
Seat 3 : Hero+1 with $23.00.
Seat 4 : MP1 with $23.25.
Seat 5 : MP2 with $26.45.
Seat 6 : CO with $60.20.
Seat 7 : BTN with $50.00.
Seat 8 : SB with $56.60.
Seat 9 : BB with $81.75.

hand.pl

** Dealing hole cards **
Dealt to Hero :
:kd4: :ac4:
Sklansky group: 2
Hero raises $1.50 to $2
Hero+1 calls [$2]
MP1 calls [$2]
MP2: folds
CO raises $9 to $11
BTN: folds
SB: folds
BB: folds
Hero ????https://www.cardschat.com
 
zachvac

zachvac

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hmm, with the action from extreme EP, I'm assuming this has to be a hand. I'd probably fold here but I'm a pussy.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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hehe, i like how the player after you was changed to hero+1 by the converter. he's like icemonkey but even cooler! sorry man, i gotta root for hero+1 on this one

but seriously, i'd fold while feeling slightly like a nit because i just don't see how we're going to be able to show a profit calling vs. a good player (reverse implied odds, basically), and 4betting is going to get us into a mess where we might be lucky enough to fold out QQ, but are gonna be in terrible shape when we get the money in
 
J

Jake

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hehe, i like how the player after you was changed to hero+1 by the converter. he's like icemonkey but even cooler! sorry man, i gotta root for hero+1 on this one

but seriously, i'd fold while feeling slightly like a nit because i just don't see how we're going to be able to show a profit calling vs. a good player (reverse implied odds, basically), and 4betting is going to get us into a mess where we might be lucky enough to fold out QQ, but are gonna be in terrible shape when we get the money in

I agree. (But I really like villian's move).
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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OK RESULT:

I raised to $32 thinking he was squeezing light, and he tanked for about 15 seconds, and folded.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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imo you probably folded him off of JJ/QQ, which would of course be a very good result for you. i definitely prefer your play to flatcalling, because there's just no way to play the hand such that it will be even close to profitable when you flat; if your hand hits, he's not going to be putting money in unless he hits better (only exception being if flop comes QJT and he hits a set). when it doesn't hit, it's going to be almost impossible for you to win the hand

even with the card removal effect that makes AA/KK statistically less likely for him, i'm still prone to think that 4betting here is -EV unless he's squeezing more often than i think he is (i think it's rarely), but it's entirely possible that i misunderestimated him :)
 
B

beefcake413

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Don't have a problem with a raise, worst case he had KK or AA (but I doubt it), otherwise max you were looking at a race going into the flop, which is a decent place to be with the raise giving you a little bit of strength on the flop.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I like your play, even though I would not mind a fold. The only terrible play here would be to flat call.
 
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