[50nl FR] 44% CO stealer raises my 3bet (QQ). Shove? Run away?

Villain here seems like a decent enough TAG. 21/13/2 with 44% steal over 150 hands. 3bet range is 3% though. I wanna shove here. What do you think?

***** Game number #20988187529 *****
Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/10/06 21:33:42 ET

Seat 4 (Hero) has the button.
SB posts small blind [$0.25]
BB posts big blind [$0.50]
Seat 1 : MP1 with $38.40.
Seat 2 : MP2 with $65.05.
Seat 3 : CO with $47.65.
Seat 4 : Hero with $49.75.
Seat 6 : SB with $52.85.
Seat 8 : BB with $9.25.
Seat 9 : UTG with $57.45.

** Dealing hole cards **

Dealt to Hero :


UTG: folds
MP1: folds
MP2 raises $1.50 to $2
CO: folds
Hero raises $4 to $6
SB: folds
BB: folds
MP2 raises $7 to $13

Hero ?????

What was your image like at that table? What do you think is his read on you?

Uuuuhhhhh ... I think something like 20/18/6 and my 3bet was like 6%

My first instinct is that ur crushed here.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

The small reraise is sending off warning bells. I dont know this seems like a standard situation to get the money in, but if hes a competent TAG he most likely knows what hes doing.

dsfsgdgdfgdfgsds, see - your odds are good you cant even fold though thats stupid. I dont like reraising with QQ usually unless you fully intend to play for stacks as the only hands that a good TAG will 3bet you (in FR obv) are ones that beat you, for the most part. I dont advise doing this against a good FR tag.

Honestly, as played, I would pop him to like $29 then shove if needed. But in the future its much better to just flat his raise and play the QQ postflop as they play really well on most boards and you crush ALL weaker holdings that arnt kk/aa.

A 44% "stealer" could 4-bet small like that against someone he thinks is playing back at him with a marginal hand AKA "3-betting light" (I think it's called). A small 4-bet doesn't necessarily mean a monster, imo.

Uuuuhhhhh ... I think something like 20/18/6 and my 3bet was like 6%

Click to expand...

Another factor: If I were him, I'd notice the "18/6" part even w/o PT/HEM. He may not want you to see a flop.

Either way, I think you have enough reason to shove your QQ. According to PokerStove, you have 70% PF equity versus someone on a 21% range.

You consider a 21/13/2 a decent TAG???

You're not folding here, so it comes down to shoving or calling (he's giving you good odds to call). I think I like calling and playing postflop with position. You're still losing a stack to AA/KK but you can fold to an ugly flop for your ladies.

I don't think shoving is a huge mistake though as you have about 40% equity against a range of KK+/AK.

WVHillbilly said:

You consider a 21/13/2 a decent TAG???

You're not folding here, so it comes down to shoving or calling (he's giving you good odds to call). I think I like calling and playing postflop with position. You're still losing a stack to AA/KK but you can fold to an ugly flop for your ladies.

I don't think shoving is a huge mistake though as you have about 40% equity against a range of KK+/AK.

Click to expand...

By calling, wouldn't you be afraid that AK would have a chance to hit the flop? That's a pretty big pot. Wouldn't it be worth trying to win it with a shove?

In this spot shoving is pretty much the best you can do, I think calling here is a mistake given the amount in the pot already. Even though ur in position I dont think its too great.

although in this spot I think hes got you mannnnnn, hehe. im going with my inital thought.

MrSticker said:

By calling, wouldn't you be afraid that AK would have a chance to hit the flop? That's a pretty big pot. Wouldn't it be worth trying to win it with a shove?

Click to expand...

AK's calling if we shove anyway, he's put too many chips in to fold AK now. So if he hits the flop we save $$. Of course if he misses we win less (assuming he doesn't get crazy with an UI AK postflop). The other issue we could have is if he bluff bets with a worse hand on a ugly flop. Like I said I don't think shoving is bad but I still think I call to see a flop.

I doubt a player who 3bets 3% is ever 4bet bluffing here.

BTW, 3% is strictly JJ+, AK, a range against which you coinflip. Shoving is ok if you think he calls with the jacks and/or folds AK. Otherwise it's a -EV option, imo, and flatting, then stacking with no overcards would be better.