[50NL FR] 3bet pot good spot to bluff?

I have been typical TAG ~15/11/2
Yeboah is a nitty 12/4/2
Utchi is 18/8/1.5

I think if Utchi had an overpair he definately leads at this flop and I am putting Yeboah squarely on JJ-QQ. This flop hits my range pretty damn hard here so I think I can probably force out an overpair, and even if I'm called I have 10 outs.

pokerstars Game #19835579633: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/08/23 - 12:10:25 (ET)
Table 'Sita V' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: essex236 ($48.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Utchi ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 3: HJR123 ($42.25 in chips)
Seat 4: mgpl431 ($11.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Yeboah69 ($55.20 in chips)
Seat 6: mirek12 ($17.95 in chips)
Seat 7: bw07507 ($52.20 in chips)
Seat 8: kevind8635 ($34.55 in chips)
Seat 9: FlagellumD ($47.15 in chips)
Utchi: posts small blind $0.25
HJR123: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [9s 9d]
mgpl431: folds
Yeboah69: raises $1.50 to $2
mirek12: folds
bw07507: calls $2
kevind8635: folds
FlagellumD: folds
essex236: folds
Utchi: raises $4.50 to $6.50
HJR123: folds
Yeboah69: calls $4.50
bw07507: calls $4.50
*** FLOP *** [8h 6h 7d]
Utchi: checks
Yeboah69: bets $12.50
bw07507: raises $33.20 to $45.70 and is all-in

I kind of like it given the lines so far (utchi giving up w/AK, yeboah betting his marginal overpair), but your push will so much like what it is (semibluff) that he may look you up. Guys like that don't like to fold overpairs. He'll also have big flush draws in his range too...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.148% 20.66% 02.48% 7430631 893072.00 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 76.852% 74.37% 02.48% 26741609 893072.00 { QQ-99, AhKh, AhQh }

Of course you still have fold equity, but I'm not sure it's enough to make pushing good here.

Hard to tell...I don't see you folding out an overpair here in a 3 bet pot here after one of them leads out. You reads may very well be right, but i doubt you are calling 2 bets pf with a s/c (at least not many 15/11s are...since cold calling w/ a s/c in a 3 bet pot isn't very sound seeing as you don't tend to have good fold equity (nor good odds) so your big flop draws aren't worth as much) so your range is pretty polarized to 66/77/88. i like a bluff here much more after one call pf, because you are right this absolutely hits your range and you are showing up with alot of straights/draws/2 pair/sets etc on this board w/ one cold call pf.

People just don't like folding overpairs in 3 bet pots, and given the odds that villain is getting to look you up, i'd be suprised if you have much fold equity (because once utchi folds jj/qq doesn't have to worry about overpairs)

and as chuck said...your line looks more like a semi bluff than a set, because if you really wanted to get the villain's stack in with a set there are more sure fire ways than this.

I had almost the exact same hand as this yesterday in nl100. 99 on a flop of 78T, but i had cold called only once pf and so i was able to c/r flop and lead turn and was able to fold out an overpair (guy was pretty good tho...obviously have little fold equity even with this line vs a fish that can't lay down an overpair no matter how hard the flop hits your range).

I just don't think you have much fold equity here either. I would expect a call, and you will be behind to most calls. Kind of in a tough spot with that action.I hope it worked for you, but that play would rarely work for me. I would have probably folded on the flop even with a straight draw. Just not enough odds of hitting for my taste.