$50NL FR, 2nd pair & oesd vs shove on turn

Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/06/03 - 22:55:32 (ET)
Table 'Armida II' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: bartmr2 ($37.85 in chips) 76/26/3 over 42 hands (Yum yum!)
Seat 2: Nob_C ($56.30 in chips)
Seat 3: RockSolid991 ($78.60 in chips)
Seat 4: SvgePenguin ($65.75 in chips)
Seat 5: ratana718 ($55.80 in chips)
Seat 6: ScarFox ($9.25 in chips)
Seat 7: Lrgetrout ($58.80 in chips)
Seat 9: Keep Honking ($53.85 in chips)
Nob_C: posts small blind $0.25
RockSolid991: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SvgePenguin [Jh Jd]
SvgePenguin: raises $1.50 to $2
ratana718: folds
jamal p leaves the table
ScarFox: folds
Lrgetrout: calls $2
Keep Honking: folds
bartmr2: calls $2
Nob_C: calls $1.75
RockSolid991: folds
*** FLOP *** [Th Qc 9c]
Fred4BadBeat joins the table at seat #8
Nob_C: checks
SvgePenguin: bets $5
Lrgetrout: folds
bartmr2: calls $5
Nob_C: folds
*** TURN *** [Th Qc 9c] [4h]
SvgePenguin: bets $10
bartmr2: raises $20.85 to $30.85 and is all-in
SvgePenguin: ?

Did you see him bluff all in on the turn before? Because unless you put him on less than top pair, you don't have the outs to make this call. Against a Q, you have 10 outs to a straight or a set. And if he has KQ, 2 of those outs are dirty.

He may be a total fish ready to go broke with top pair crappy kicker and yet you wouldn't have the outs to call this.
So You have to fold, unless you have a monster read that he is pushing with air.

^^^^^^ says it all.

Let's be a bit more accurate in our analysis. If you call, you pay 20.85 for a total pot of 80.2, so you need to win 26% of the time.

When he doesn't bluff, he has made straight, a set, two pairs or a Q. Against that range, you are 22% favorite.

When he bluffs, he doesn't do it with complete air, so he has either a club flush draw or a T or a 9, and you're about 85% favorite.

if B is his bluffing frequency, then you need 85 B + 22 (1-B) > 26, so if he bluffs more than 6.3% of the time, then this becomes a profitable call.

Maybe that's not unrealistic and a call is correct.

How are you getting 20.85 to win 80.2? I am seeing a pot of 18.5 going into the turn so it will be 20.85 to win 38.5. So you will have to win 35.1% of the time.

With that said this guy looks like a maniac so if he has done this at all I would say a call may not be too bad. If he hasnt shown any all in bluffs or gone all in at all then I may let it go.

widowmaker89 said:

How are you getting 20.85 to win 80.2? I am seeing a pot of 18.5 going into the turn so it will be 20.85 to win 38.5. So you will have to win 35.1% of the time.

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After the flop, the pot is 18.5. Then WE BET 10 and villain raises to 30.85, which which makes the pot 80.2 if we call his 20.85 raise.

BTW, why do we bet the turn? and why do we bet $10? It's about the worst bet size for us to decide whether to call a shoving raise.

On the turn, I'd prefer a check hoping for a free card and calling a bet depending on the offered implied odds. If not a check, then a $5 blocking bet folding to any significant raise. If not a blocking bet, then pot size bet that at least has a chance to get villain to fold a badly kicked queen and makes calling a shove trivial based on the odds. $10 is really asking for trouble.

Well we are both wrong. You cant include the 20.85 in the pot we win because we also "win" if we fold. However I should have included his 20.85 so its 20.85 to win 59.35 for pot odds of 2.85:1. So you must win 26% of the time. After further review I think this is what you were getting at.

This is a call as he could easily be bluffing here.

My guess would be that the turn bet is an assumption that the loose player will go to showdown with a weaker hand, or, that he's drawing with a J or 87.

And his reraise might mean a semibluff with draws. But my concern would be, unless he has a high SD percentage, that with 76 VP$IP he's very likely to play KJ/QJ, even Q4s, all of which make sense given his stats and are ahead of us here. Basically that JJ on this board isn't good enough given the wide range of hands that he might hold that have us beat and possibly drawing dead.

smash334 said:

Why did you bet turn. You had only o second pair and a not so strong draw

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I'm basically continuing my story. I play like that if I have a set or a straight or an over-pair, so I also play that way when I have less than optimal hands. That way people can't put me on a specific hand. It's something I brought with me from 6-max, which is all I played until a short while ago.
You can probably guess what *I* do to people who like to check or min-raise when they don't hit their hands? I don't want to be one of those people. (It helps keep my W$WSD positive)

The raise also defines his hand. There's a lot of draws he'd call with on the flop. On the turn, I'm not letting him see the flop for free, and I'm not making a weak bet.

And I think my draw is pretty significant. I'm open ended, and have have the Jacks locked up, so if he's drawing to a guy shot (and it's entirely possible with those stats) I have him by the short hairs.

----------------------------
Back to the hand...

Now with his shove, I put him on A/K. I mean, why shove the turn when that meaningless 4h hit?

Given his stats, ok it's a small sample, but we can take some info from them. We have a fair amount of equity here + this type bluffs a lot, I think calling here can be +ev against this type imo. He could have KJ, but given we have 2 of the J's it's prolly unlikely.

I think you need a very good read on a guy here not to call. With the pot odds and the drawy board its an easy call. As belgo pointed out we only need 6% bluffs for EV+ and that number is much greater I beleive.

The bet is a better discussion although I dont mind it, it is a draw board and you dont want to give a free card. I also dont think it puts you in as bad shape as others, while we wanted to just take down the pot now there are worse situations. If we check and he pushes we would have 30.85 to win 49.35 so we would have to win just about 40% of the time. So that is the same as if we knew he would push if we check. While I would fold that situation, if we take into account the fold equity we have by betting its not a bad place to be. I dont feel im explaining my arguement well here so I apologize if it is confusing.

is it just me or do these two hands not match up?

maybe im dumb and can't read?

^^^I posted the result for a different hand, and deleted it ASAP. You were too fast.

Well, he did not have the A/K I put him on.

pokerstars Game #17901201532
...
*** TURN *** [Th Qc 9c] 4♥
SvgePenguin: bets $10
bartmr2: raises $20.85 to $30.85 and is all-in
SvgePenguin: calls $20.85
*** RIVER *** [Th Qc 9c 4h] 6♦
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SvgePenguin: shows [Jh Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
bartmr2: mucks [8s 9d]
SvgePenguin collected $77.20 from pot

Guess his stats were anything but misleading this time.

SavagePenguin said:

I'm basically continuing my story. I play like that if I have a set or a straight or an over-pair, so I also play that way when I have less than optimal hands. That way people can't put me on a specific hand. It's something I brought with me from 6-max, which is all I played until a short while ago.
You can probably guess what *I* do to people who like to check or min-raise when they don't hit their hands? I don't want to be one of those people. (It helps keep my W$WSD positive)

The raise also defines his hand. There's a lot of draws he'd call with on the flop. On the turn, I'm not letting him see the flop for free, and I'm not making a weak bet.

And I think my draw is pretty significant. I'm open ended, and have have the Jacks locked up, so if he's drawing to a guy shot (and it's entirely possible with those stats) I have him by the short hairs.

Click to expand...

What does the range you're representing matter in a pot with a 70+ vpip player? Your main issue on the turn is with the initial bet - whether or not you want to commit your stack to the hand. Not balancing your play. Your opponent's not paying attention; balance doesn't matter.

But ya, the turn bet is the big issue here, not the question of whether or not to call. If you're betting the turn with the intention to fold to a shove against a guy this loose and aggressive, you're doing something very wrong.

I'm betting the turn bigger and calling a shove all day against this guy. Plenty of FDs, Tx, Jx, and apparently 9x hands to make this more than profitable.

ChuckTs said:

But ya, the turn bet is the big issue here, not the question of whether or not to call. If you're betting the turn with the intention to fold to a shove against a guy this loose and aggressive, you're doing something very wrong.

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Well, I did call the shove against him. I was mostly talking about generically being in that position, rather than with this particular player.

You helped me in a similar (J/J I pre-flop at $25 NL) hand, and I saw you make a call with T/T once. So whenever I see one of these in my head I think of it as "making a ChuckTs call."

I specifically thought "here comes my ChuckTs call" after he shoved. I think I do that because, deep down, I can blame you if it doesn't pan out. But I'm almost aways ahead, so you're still on my good side.