50NL FR (150BB deep): Bottom set - call or raise on river?

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Villain is 28/17/2 over a 45 hand sample.

Do we beat anything that calls if we raise the river?

Should we be betting the turn?

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP1: $80.50 (161 bb)
MP2: $10 (20 bb)
Hero (MP3): $77.20 (154.4 bb)
CO: $25.45 (50.9 bb)
BTN: $33.70 (67.4 bb)
SB: $54.80 (109.6 bb)
BB: $54.75 (109.5 bb)
UTG+1: $30.50 (61 bb)
UTG+2: $23.95 (47.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with 2
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2
diamond.gif

UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 raises to $2.50, MP2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, 5 folds

Flop: ($6.25) 8
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2
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6
spade.gif
(2 players)
MP1 bets $3, Hero raises to $9.75, MP1 calls $6.75

Turn: ($25.75) Q
spade.gif
(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($25.75) 9
diamond.gif
(2 players)
MP1 bets $18, Hero ????
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I call. Raising river here is a bit spewy. Plus you get to see a showdown an that's worth a look with a not too good player two places to your right.

I'm betting the turn and don't mind getting it in there as we have outs against a made flush and a lot of flush draws could come along. Both reasons disappeared on the river.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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It's borderline criminal to check behind this turn. On the river... Meh. I think there could be value in a tiny raise if you trust him enough to fold to a shove. The reason it might work is because I'm not certain he'd even reraise a bigger set, because your line can look like a strangely slowplayed flush, and people get paranoid when the river gets raised.

Or differently put, if you think his river betting range is virtually never a bluff (and in this case, I think that's not a far-fetched assumption) then you can extract a little extra value from 98/TT/JJ/AQ and maybe even A8, and - and this is what's important - if he doesn't bet the river with air, he has no particular reason to shove with anything that you beat, since his only reason to shove is if he's either entirely convinced he has you beat (which would require a hand pretty close to the nuts on this board) or if he has air and hopes you can laydown a weak hand.

But it's a risky play versus someone with a limited sample on.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I forgot to add AA and KK to the range of hands that you beat.

Furthermore, there's not that many flushdraws in his range, depending on how wildly he opens in this position. AK+AJ+AT+A9+KJ+JT+J9+T9 = 8. AA+KK = 12.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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It's borderline criminal to check behind this turn. On the river... Meh. I think there could be value in a tiny raise if you trust him enough to fold to a shove.

Meh too. ;)

But the main point is that checking turn is a big leak in your game, while whether or not we should call or value minraise/fold river is probably a very marginal decision which does not deserve to be worked upon until the big leaks are fixed.
 
pedroman7

pedroman7

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You just got to bet the turn, way too much of a draw heavy board.
As played I think you got call the river but I can't see raising.
I am guessing they either had AsKs or 99. Maybe?
 
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baudib1

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I call.

I also don't mind checking the turn. If we bet and get called we're close to being committed to calling a river shove.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I call.

I also don't mind checking the turn. If we bet and get called we're close to being committed to calling a river shove.

Expand on why that's a problem.
 
B

baudib1

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I don't think there are many hands we beat that shove the river after calling the turn?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I don't think there are many hands we beat that shove the river after calling the turn?

if that's the case, then it's an easy fold and it costs you the same as check calling river here after checking turn. Although i could see missed flush draws shoving (AsX)

On the other hand, by betting we arelikely playing for stacks on the turn against AQ and flush draws, which is hugely +EV.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Concerning checking the turn: I really thought about betting it but I just figured that he either thought I made the flush and would fold or he'd made the flush (couldn't really think of many hands he would call the flop raise with outside of a FD or bigger set but this was likely my mistake). I knew that by checking the turn there was a fairly decent chance a 4th spade would hit and I'd lose out (unless or course it made my boat). I also made the choice a little bit for pot control (not something I do often with a set) because I just couldn't see him putting it all in the middle without a hand that beats me.

I'll let the debate go a bit longer before I reveal the result.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Is it just me or are we light years ahead of his range here. I think any TT-AA hand accounts for his actions and just one of them (QQ) beats us. I mean he MIGHT have hit a set, very doubtful he hit the flush. I guess I'd be calling and not raising here. If you were to min raise this river for example, would hands you have beat like AA, KK, JJ, TT, AQ call? Maaaaaybe, who knows with a guy like this.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Thanks for the advice guys. I posted this hand because I felt I played it too tentatively and you guys have pretty much confirmed that. I just called the river and he mucked [Ah] [Qh].
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I don't think there are many hands we beat that shove the river after calling the turn?

If you make a list of all the hands that will call a bet on the turn, and then all the hands (out of those) that will shove the river, and then look at how much money a bet on the turn makes you, and how much calling a bet on the river will lose you the times he shoves, I'm confident you'll find that if you bet the turn, you can call every river, and you'll still be profitable.
 
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