Originally Posted by Bombjack
... bets because he would always c-bet this flop with any 2. If CO floats, I prolly check-raise the turn.
C/R the turn means you're ready to play a huge pot. If he floats the flop and bets the turn after getting checked into, it could be a plain steal attempt, but if he has a hand better then ours he can really hurt us because check/raising is going to make this pot real big, close to the point where we're committed. As it stands its already $13, and if we c-bet $7.50 and he calls it's $28 and we have $66 behind.
Hero started this hand with ~160 BB's and villain has more than that. I agree that we're crushing his range but going for stacks with only top pair is dangerous, and check/raising the turn means taking that avenue. If he calls the flop c-bet I'd just check the turn even if there is a flush draw on the board, then reevaluate based on his action. I doubt I'd fold any non outrageous turn bet against this player, but if he fires big on the river I'd have to seriously consider it unless we improve, and our chances for that aren't too good.
The possible downside of playing the hand this way is that he might interpret our whole line as a big PP (JJ+) and thinks we're scared of the A. This might incourage him to bluff with a huge bet, close to a pot size one, if he has a medium PP or something like 98s, which is in his range. A $24 bet on the turn would put us in tough spot since we'd have another $42 left behind. The upside is that, for the same reason, if he has a weaker A (AJ, AT) he'll likely value bet us ($8-$10) on the turn and maybe even on the river when checked into and he'll give us a decent pot.
There is the option of betting the turn, maybe somewhere like $10, but if he raises it we have
to fold at that point. Although it could still be a bluff, most times it's going to mean we really are behind. The biggest problem arises if he flat calls. Pot would now be $48, we'd have $56 behind and absolutely no clue of where we're at.
Continuing this hand superaggressively with big check/raises is usually a bad idea, because if he gives you that kind of action it means you're beat and it's going to cost you a lot, possibly your whole stack. I wouldn't do it. The alternative might take us to folding the best hand, but sometimes that's what you get for 3betting AQo OOP .