$50NL: AJs flops TPTK out of position
I've thought about this hand for about an hour now. Here's what happened:
I open to $1.50 UTG (this is a 6-max game) with AhJh. Arguably an aggressive open from that position, but let's not get entangled in that, now.
The CO calls. Everyone else folds. We see a flop with $3.50 in the pot, and the cards are Js8c2d, giving me top pair, top kicker but no backdoor flushdraw. I lead out for $3 and the CO raises to $8. The pot is now $14.
CO is a tight player over the small set of hands we've played together. I'm hesitant to draw too many conclusions about it because of the sample size, but it at least makes it unlikely that he has a very wide range preflop.
Without making too much of an assumption about his preflop range, I can at least say that his range shouldn't be wider than this when he raises the flop:
PPs: 22, 88-JJ
Suited connectors: KJs, QJs, T9s, J8s
The rest: AJo/s
me I'm 58% to win vs. his range.
Question number 1: Is my estimate of his range plausible? It's true that a solid opponent probably doesn't coldcall AJo in the CO, but then again, the same holds true for J8s. Furthermore, am I correct in thinking that 99 and TT might raise this (in their eyes relatively safe) flop the way he did?
Question number 2: Where do I go from here? Folding when I'm 58% to win is out of the question. Pushing, however, seems bad too:
If I push, I expect him to fold the worst part of his range and call with the best part. I think he'd be hard pressed to call a shove with KJ or QJ. So if I push and he calls, PokerStove brings my equity down to 31%. Not good.
So I called.
What's my plan for the rest of the hand?