50nl; AJo vs flop overbet

What's our line here vs an unknown shortstack? He's been a little tight since sitting down but otherwise I'm pretty much readless against the guy.

Just stick him in? Smooth call and reevaluate the turn? Do we stick him in on the turn? Fold??? tbh I don't really like any option here...

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed)

MP2 ($71.55)
Hero ($50)
Button ($54.75)
SB ($27.40)
BB ($22.80)
UTG ($49)
MP1 ($26.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J , A .
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25.

Flop: ($3.75) 9 , A , 6 (2 players)
BB bets $4, Hero ...

hmmm we are losing to 3 poss sets, a,q, a,k ,a,9, a,6

I think we can rule out sets since would he really lead out with one who would he induce a cbet, i think the latter. I think 2 pair is the same. I think he would check raise with 2 pair. except maybe a,6. I think we need to push him all in here, put the pressure on him since he can still fold to a massive re raise. Although by doing this you are only going to get called if losing. AHHH too confused about what to do. I think i would make a raise on flop, which will probably end with him pushing and you having to call. And see a,t

This to me looks like a mediocre player "protecting" a hand from a flush draw, especially if you evaluate him as tight, and he's calling preflop OOP. Just from that, I'd say our line should be to figure out if our TPMK is good here. The best way to do that is probably to make our way to a showdown cheaply. Plus the river may give us the opportunity to represent a draw.

I'd call behind, and see what he does on the turn.

There's nothing at all tricky about this. Unless you've been raising alot from LP and or showing down crap, you have to respect his OP call/bet. At best you got him pipped. Maybe your ahead, maybe your behind, but either way your looking at a possibly big investment with a mediocre hand. I wouldn't even call.

Well what do we expect to see here that beats us?

I definitely considered a fold, but doesn't AK/AQ repop preflop? Also, wouldn't you expect to see a set/2 pair probably slowplay or at least ch-r?

There's nothing at all tricky about this. Unless you've been raising alot from LP and or showing down crap, you have to respect his OP call/bet. At best you got him pipped. Maybe your ahead, maybe your behind, but either way your looking at a possibly big investment with a mediocre hand. I wouldn't even call.

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Wait, wait, what ? A lot of hands donk into us, and we have to include a crapload of hands that we beat (weaker Aces, 9's, 6's) so they "know" they're beat when they get raised and get some folds from 6 outers (KQ, etc.). We cannot rule out a flush draw or or straight draw betting this to build up the pot also. If we are folding here, we might as well fold preflop, BB calling can be a lot of stuff since we are readless.

Call, raise any non spade, non T, non 5 river. Fold to crazyness obviously. Raising this flop can also be an option, but we are folding the worse hands and keeping the good hands in. We get more value from 9, 6, underpairs, TT by calling and raising the turn.

AQ prolly wouldn't repop the flop, in many cases. Hell, some people prefer to just see a flop with AK, and trap.

The only plausible hands we're hoping to see here are weaker aces, KX flush draws, 78, or possibly big pairs (TT+). I don't see something like K9 leading out into us for a pot-sized bet. I'm not doing anything more aggressive than just calling his suspicious looking bet and seeing what he does on the turn, because most likely, we're just donating chips away.

c9h13no3 said:

AQ prolly wouldn't repop the flop, in many cases. Hell, some people prefer to just see a flop with AK, and trap.

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Then why's he leading for more than a PSB?

Call, re-assess turn. Simple imo.

ChuckTs said:

Then why's he leading for more than a PSB?

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Because he's a donk who doesn't buy in for the max, and is paranoid of people drawing to flushes...

Or because he likes reading CC hand analysis threads

ChuckTs said:

Well what do we expect to see here that beats us?

I definitely considered a fold, but doesn't AK/AQ repop preflop? Also, wouldn't you expect to see a set/2 pair probably slowplay or at least ch-r?

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That depends on the player. Some people never raise, let alone re-raise. But even so, IMO a flat cold call is not uncommon HU with an unmade hand, even AK. Why risk a 3bet or push from a pocket pair.
As for his pocket pairs. I WOULD expect 99 and probably 66 to RR PF and I WOULD expect them to check raise on the flop.
So what do I expect? A sharp ace, just like you. But I would fold anyway. This has turned into a 50/50 proposition AT BEST.
Save the big pots for big hands.

That depends on the player. Some people never raise, let alone re-raise. But even so, IMO a flat cold call is not uncommon HU with an unmade hand, even AK. Why risk a 3bet or push from a pocket pair.
As for his pocket pairs. I WOULD expect 99 and probably 66 to RR PF and I WOULD expect them to check raise on the flop.
So what do I expect? A sharp ace, just like you. But I would fold anyway. This has turned into a 50/50 proposition AT BEST.
Save the big pots for big hands.

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Since when a tight shorstack doesn't reraise AK but reraises 66 ? This makes absolutely no sense. Your assessment of 50/50 also makes no sense: even if he flats AK and AQ. These are only two holdings, while we could very well be facing a smaller suited ace (or air). We are on the flop here facing a bet from someone defending and from someone who possibly sees our image as bad (steals a lot). If we start folding top pair medium kicker here, we should lay it down preflop.

This is totally standard and if you really play this way, I want to be seated on your left... a lot. You give too much credit to BB.

I gotta agree with jeffred here, dogs. I still think AK reraises pf, especially if 66/99 do. AQ is still a definite possibility, but so is AT and under.

I think a decent reg 3-bets AK and AQ agaisnt a CO raise. It could be a set mine, and now he's hoping that you have the Ace and leads out strong to see if he can catch AK. Then again semi-bluff with the flush draw, A10<, even a terribly played QQ are all in his range.

I call and re-evaluate the turn.

i didn't read every post so don't know if it was already said but i would expect a minimum of two pair here. i don't completely rule out aq or ak but i'm almost certin that you're beat here. even still, i'd call and see what the turn brings. kind of hard to fold an ace with a big kicker on the flop with that board. seeing as he'd go crazy on the trun about 90% of the time here though i'd be ok with giving it up and picking a better spot.

jeffred1111 said:

Since when a tight shorstack doesn't reraise AK but reraises 66 ?

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You don't see the difference between AK AQ and 66 or 99?
Med PP have a VERY short shelf life, basically unless you make a set your done. This is doubly so when out of position. The time to make hay is pre-flop. I might just call IP, OP I'll always raise, RR, or fold (assuming I'm not getting the odds to call). With AK, I'm not afraid to see a flop. 1/3 of the time I'm going to like what I see and will probably make enough to cover the other 2/3's when I don't. Reraising probably won't win the hand outright and there's no need to thin the field as your already HU. All it does is kill your odds.

jeffred1111 said:

This makes absolutely no sense. Your assessment of 50/50 also makes no sense: even if he flats AK and AQ. These are only two holdings, while we could very well be facing a smaller suited ace (or air).

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Chucks only read is that the caller seems tight. Unless I have more information my first instinct is that tight means selective, not stupid or scared to bet. I'm also assuming that caller has no reason to believe that Chuck is merely trying to steal the blinds. So, unless he's got a very strong ace, he cannot neglect the possibility that Chuck also has an ace. His OP bet on that flop suggests that he's not too worried about this. Given what little we do know about BB, I'd be surprised if my 50/50 assesment isn't optimistic.

jeffred1111 said:

We are on the flop here facing a bet from someone defending and from someone who possibly sees our image as bad (steals a lot). If we start folding top pair medium kicker here, we should lay it down preflop.

This is totally standard and if you really play this way, I want to be seated on your left... a lot. You give too much credit to BB.

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Sorry, you're right. I must have missed that part in ChuckTs OP where he told us that his IMAGE was of a featherbrained halfwit who frolics gayly into every hand and raises every pot with kitty litter. This does open up his range quite a bit.

Four Dogs said:

I must have missed that part in ChuckTs OP where he told us that his IMAGE was of a featherbrained halfwit who frolics gayly into every hand and raises every pot with kitty litter.

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Says so right here:

ChuckTs said:

I'm pretty much readless against the guy.

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He's an unknown 50nl shortstack



Of course we know we can't immediately assume he's on a range of any two cards here, but we also can't do the same on the other end of the spectrum and say he's on AK/AQ here.

A set/two pair rarely takes this line, and AK/AQ aren't very likely, but are certainly possible. In my opinion, bluffs, semibluffs and weaker hands (smaller pairs, AT and worse) are the biggest part of his range.

Basically in order to find a fold we have to pin him on AQ+, and that's a little out there if you ask me.

Good discussion though, guys. I'm really liking how much more activity I'm seeing in the HA forums lately

Flop: ($3.75) 9 , A , 6 (2 players)
BB bets $4, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($11.75) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ...

ChuckTs said:

Flop: ($3.75) 9

, A

, 6

(2 players)
BB bets $4, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($11.75) A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero ...

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Juicy.

So villan could have 3 possible hands:

1) A big pocket pair TT+, something like J9, or air. These hands are unlikely to improve against us.
2) A FD, 78, ect. ~16% chance to improve on us.
3) A set that just filled up, or still AQ+. We're very unlikely to improve against these hands.

Either way you slice it, this is probably a WA/WB scenario. I doubt you'll get him to pay that much for the river if he's drawing to a flush or straight since the board is already paired. And since betting is likely to fold the hands in catagory 1, and get raised by hands in catagory 3, I say just check the ace, and try to induce a bluff on the river.

Sure, taking this line we're playing right into the hands of 7s8s, but that's just one hand in his range.

Argh. I change my position, and I say bet the turn.

To me, this is looking like a a draw most likely, and less like a WA/WB scenario since the odds of AQ and AK have decreased. The extra heart on the turn also adds a heart flush draw, and gives hands like 7h8h another set of outs.

By betting, we get value out of the draws now, and hands like J9 may see it as an attempt to steal, since the 2nd Ace hit. Many times, when the 2nd ace comes, a lot of players think "oh, well its less likely he has an ace now".

The only risk in betting is that we pay money to a set, and we risk getting raised all-in by hands like AT, A8. But I don't think a set or those ace hands slows down here. You called an overbet on the flop, why should a set slow down, when you'll likely call a bet on the turn as well? And the second ace will just give more security to those with a weaker ace than you.

I say charge him 8$ to see the river.... that is if I don't change my mind in the next 20 minutes.

go into the tank, call turn, valuetown him when he bluffs river with his crappy hand

c9h13no3 said:

Argh. I change my position, and I say bet the turn.

To me, this is looking like a a draw most likely, and less like a WA/WB scenario since the odds of AQ and AK have decreased. The extra heart on the turn also adds a heart flush draw, and gives hands like 7h8h another set of outs.

By betting, we get value out of the draws now, and hands like J9 may see it as an attempt to steal, since the 2nd Ace hit. Many times, when the 2nd ace comes, a lot of players think "oh, well its less likely he has an ace now".

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Awfully big bet for a draw, especially on an ace high flop vs a PF raiser.

c9h13no3 said:

The only risk in betting is that we pay money to a set, and we risk getting raised all-in by hands like AT, A8. But I don't think a set or those ace hands slows down here. You called an overbet on the flop, why should a set slow down, when you'll likely call a bet on the turn as well? And the second ace will just give more security to those with a weaker ace than you.

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I dunno, could be a CR coming. To Chuck, it looks as though he took his one stab and is backing off. Chuck on the otherhand also showed weakness or at least hesitance by merely calling. If he had a better ace, the flop certainly didn't hurt him and a check here would likely induce a bet from a real drawing hand or a weaker ace.
My line remains the same, check behind.

You don't see the difference between AK AQ and 66 or 99?
Med PP have a VERY short shelf life, basically unless you make a set your done. This is doubly so when out of position. The time to make hay is pre-flop. I might just call IP, OP I'll always raise, RR, or fold (assuming I'm not getting the odds to call). With AK, I'm not afraid to see a flop. 1/3 of the time I'm going to like what I see and will probably make enough to cover the other 2/3's when I don't. Reraising probably won't win the hand outright and there's no need to thin the field as your already HU. All it does is kill your odds.

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The guy is a shortstack and yes, raising might take it down so flatting AK in his position is not optimal. I'd even say that against most raisers, flatting is not optimal since you forfeit any FE you could have against a routine stealer who will probably give up the first time you defend.

And reraising 66 in the blinds is spew unless you're check/folding c-bet folding anything that doesn't it you and that is exploitable: pp pairs are nice things, but they simply suck OOP. Shostacks might go for it though. And any good villain who is tight (and shorstacked) reraises or folds 99 here: he never gets implieds to call.

Saying that villain will reraise his med pp while flatting AK is not likely, especially if you factor in that he is a shorstack. Next point. And if he doesn, more power to him the one time he tarps us in a small pot while he could be playing the near nuts agressively for a bigger pot.

Chucks only read is that the caller seems tight. Unless I have more information my first instinct is that tight means selective, not stupid or scared to bet. I'm also assuming that caller has no reason to believe that Chuck is merely trying to steal the blinds. So, unless he's got a very strong ace, he cannot neglect the possibility that Chuck also has an ace. His OP bet on that flop suggests that he's not too worried about this. Given what little we do know about BB, I'd be surprised if my 50/50 assesment isn't optimistic.

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This would be true if Chuck were UTG, but any hand he wishes to play from CO, he must raise in order to try to pick up the blinds and buy the button. This is 6-max. J9s is good for a raise here always. BB must be deaf and stupid not to realize that this can be a steal a good % of the time. If you never realize this, you either don't defend enough, seeing monsters everywhere, or you don't steal enough yourself and assume everyone does so.

MP2 can be a steal in 6 max (and if you never steal from there, you are exploitable at 6-max). Next point.

His OP bet suggests that he has two cards and wants Chuck to fold or call or shove, we cannot take wild assumptions in such a spot with TPMK. If flop were Js4s5 and we had JT, would we be folding ? No. Why ? Because we have top pair on a drawy flop for BB range and he could bet his draw. Call and reevaluate turn. Surrendering now is ridiculous, might as well fold preflop.

Sorry, you're right. I must have missed that part in ChuckTs OP where he told us that his IMAGE was of a featherbrained halfwit who frolics gayly into every hand and raises every pot with kitty litter. This does open up his range quite a bit.

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Knowing Chuck, he can show up with crap here sometimes if he knows the blinds are tight because he knows blind stealing is a huge part of his hourly. Sure his stats are tight, but I'd take a wild guess and say that it's because he plays very little SB, BB to a raise, UTG, UTG+1 and most of his hands from MP, CO and BTN while raising first in.

Seriously, I'm not trying to pick at you or anything, but I really don't like your line against a readless guy. We are in position on the turn, if he comes out betting again, we can then consider folding (wich I would contemplate). If he doesn't bet, we just check behind, keep the pot small and call his bet with 77, busted spades or J9 on the river. This isn't rocket science. And please read dbitel post on blind stealing if you haven't already, because 6-max is basically about frolicking with suited trash some % of the time, yeah.

Agree to disagree.

fwiw this is actually full-ring, but it's 7-handed because the table's temporarily short.

No point on betting this turn, villain is already committed if he has a draw + one pair and is likely to call with half his chips in the pot and the times he has the nuts, we lose. Check behind, let him shove into you on the river with his likely crap if the spade doesn't hit. This is a small standard pot, we should be more than willing to let it go if a scarecard falls.