50nl; AA vs paired turn

Any way we can find a fold here?

edit: sorry, villain is a 70/3/1.5 fish

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

MP1 ($60.70)
MP2 ($22.70)
MP3 ($20.45)
Hero ($56.20)
Button ($32.05)
SB ($18)
BB ($18.60)
UTG ($99.90)
UTG+1 ($51.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A , A .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, BB calls $2.25, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls $2.25.

Flop: ($9) 5 , 4 , T (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $5.75, BB calls $5.75, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($20.50) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($20.50) Q (2 players)
BB bets $10.1 (All-In), Hero ...

tough, i think id call since i think he has a busted straight draw, something like 6,7. Do you have any reads? since i cant see why this player would check with top pair tens on flop, and then just flat call a raise. Surely if he was checking expecting a c bet, he would have re raised it. If you have no reads i think i would call anyway just because it is a cheap way of getting some information on how he plays draws or top pair etc

Do you win 1 time in 4? I think so. Although he has a T or a set > 50% of the time imo.

Easy call Chuck, agree with BJ though, expect to lose here lots. 4:1 against a 70/3/1.5 yea i call here all day.

Don't think I can fold this without a good read.

Let's see, you need to be ahead roughly 1 in 3 times to make this a profitable call.

There are a couple things that make sense with the villain's bets and stats:

A raggedy 10, like say J10 (or even Q10). He checks the turn to see if you have a better 10, then considers your check the "all-clear" signal.

A decent pocket pair, like 77+.

A hand he liked pre-flop and just can't let go of, like AK or AQ

A crummy two pair like 54 suited.

A set.

I think you are ahead enough here that you have to call.

So am I the only one that could actually be afraid this guy hit a backdoor flush? He could easily have AK suited that he just couldn't let go of on the flop. I might just be paranoid though

I'm still calling this though.

SeanyJ said:

So am I the only one that could actually be afraid this guy hit a backdoor flush? He could easily have AK suited that he just couldn't let go of on the flop. I might just be paranoid though

I'm still calling this though.

Click to expand...

I always fear the backdoor flush. I just don't let that fear enter into my decisions

Bet more on this flop, you are pretty much always getting called by any and with a T or a draw (even backdoor) agaisnt such an opponent. Take half his stack while you are madly in front.

You've under-represented your hand, plus all the reasons everyone else has listed. I wouldn't be able to fold.

I snapcalled, he showed QTo, I lose.

Not really sure why I even made this thread; someone as bad as him could easily even have something as weak as KQ here.