[50NL 6max] QQ Value Shove River?

Can I shove this for value or should I be checking behind here??
Ive played with villain before, he is 23/18/4 over ~100 hands
This is only the 4th hand at the table, so I have no image, but this guy seems decent so if he has stats on me, Im around a 20/16/2.5

Tried to get him to commit on the turn, but he didnt bite, making me think he might have a set here, but then he checks the river and the board is double paired making a set less likely.


pokerstars GAME #16651233369: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/04/11 - 14:02:33 (ET)
Table 'Nausikaa III' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: kaoz12345678 ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 2: bw07507 ($54.70 in chips)
Seat 3: Pat Poker 01 ($9.70 in chips)
Seat 4: Haens28 ($49 in chips)
Seat 5: p4see ($24.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Moolhuizinov ($79.55 in chips)
Haens28: posts small blind $0.25
p4see: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Qd Qc]
Moolhuizinov: folds
kaoz12345678: folds
bw07507: raises $1.50 to $2
Pat Poker 01: folds
Haens28: calls $1.75
p4see: folds
*** FLOP *** [6d 2c 4s]
Haens28: checks
bw07507: bets $3
Haens28: raises $7 to $10
bw07507: calls $7
*** TURN *** [6d 2c 4s] [4d]
Haens28: checks
bw07507: bets $12
Haens28: calls $12
*** RIVER *** [6d 2c 4s 4d] [2h]
Haens28: checks
bw07507: ?

This looks like an overpair smaller than yours. The only hand you're realistically afraid of him having is 66. I bet this to valuetown 77-JJ. Not sure if shoving is the right bet size though. I'd keep it to about 12-16ish, and offer hands like JJ & TT better pot odds. It'll be really hard for them to call your strong betting on all streets, and then a shove on the river.

If you get raised, obviously we vomit & call and expect to see quads or a boat. Maybe A4 or something silly.

Villain's range is looking like 22-TT. So he's either holding a monster, or a random pair. And I doubt a monster checks the river to you.

ya I think this is a weak overpair most of the time too. I think occasionally it will be a busted draw as well, but this is definitely a value shove to me. 66 is a definite concern and I wouldn't doubt he would play it this way, but by pure probability a worse overpair is just more likely.

On a side note, monsters RARELY check on the river. Check-raising for value on the river is a very rare thing to see and when you're checked to you can often valuetown a lot of hands. QQ definitely falls in that category imo.

This is dedfinately value bet city here. Shove or donk bet here?.... we want a call for sure, I think we need to have him call, so I would put in a little sweatener bet as per c9h $12 ish. Shoving may get him to fold 77-99.

bet a bit more on the turn. and yeah, value bet now whatever you think he'll call with like 77

I think a shove is bad. You don't want to scare him off.

I'd bet $16.70, or whatever would leave you with an even $10 left in your stack. He was willing to call $12 last time, so a little more into a bigger pot should be callable.

Plus, leaving yourself with an even $10 looks suspicious, like you're trying to leave yourself something in case you lose.

sry but...

u need to shove with the set on the river... gl!