[50nl 6max] Nut FD vs overbet push from fish

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $53.60
Hero (MP): $49.25
CO: $34.25
BTN: $91.95
SB: $50.25
BB: $49.25

Pre-Flop: 4 A dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 9 T 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises to $32.50 and is All-In, Hero ...

Villain is very loose and fairly aggressive over a very small sample (<15 hands). I've been pretty aggressive myself at like 30/30 or something.

What type of range are we looking at?

Personally I think range is irrelevant here. We have to assume that at best we have 9 flush outs plus the 3 A outs, so 12 which is just under 45%. When there's a lot of money in the pot this is favorable because of odds, but with the odds we get we need to be 43% or better. So calling is at best break even with the rake. Obviously we could be up against JQc or something, but I think overpairs and 2-pair or sets are way more common here. With the 2-pair/set hands we only have the 9 outs and with sets even when we hit these he has a redraw to a boat. So aside from flat out bluffs we're getting barely the odds to call and with rake it's probably a bad call. Add the fact that he could be doing this with some other hands like 2 pairs and sets and I think it's a standard fold.

Seeing as though youve been super aggro, if villian is smart and noticed this then his range is massive. he could be slow playing KK/AA or be on hands like sc's.

IMO his most likely range here is combo draw/set/2p/Overpair.

Even with top pair, as zach said, we are at best 45%.

The more i look at it the more i like folding.

Also on a side note. With draws you usually bet them for fold equity, you now have zero fold equity so you are only playing your outs which may not all be live.

I usually call this, but I have just put some ranges into stove and I think were crushed against his range, see what you think about my range here.

99-jj, 77, A9-AT, J8, 68, 7t, 79, t9 plus some other random flush stuff. It comes out at something like we have 35% equity, put in some mega donkey stuff like shoving middle pair etc might give us a bit more.. Given this, in hindsight, INSTAFOLD.

If you had a read on villain ie he shoves draws then INSTACALL .

I prefer the fold for the reasons zach stated but i would have played the hand differently.

I would have prefered to see you check the flop because it serves you 2 purposes. Firstly you may get to peel off a free card to catch your flush. If not, you have the opportunity to check/raise, which i would prefer to see here. That way we build the pot up and have fold equity to take hte pot down after our re raise.

Yeah I think this is a fold. As you guys said we really can't count anything more than our flush outs and we're obviously not getting odds to draw. I did call anyways and he showed K8h which hit.