[50nl 6max] Call this river shove ?

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
I'm at a FT deep stack table but didn't realise it when I bought in and only got 100bb. Villain turns out to be 36/20/3 over 100 hands, but this was like hand number 10 I had on him.

I know my line is a bit passive here.

Still, should I call the river shove here or does villain always have a higher flush or a boat ?

UTG: $138.35 (276.7 bb)
MP: $136.35 (272.7 bb)
CO: $102.35 (204.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $54.80 (109.6 bb)
SB: $136.65 (273.3 bb)
BB: $118.60 (237.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 9
diamond.gif
J
diamond.gif

UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($8.75) 4
diamond.gif
6
spade.gif
3
diamond.gif
(5 players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, MP folds, CO folds, Hero calls $6, SB folds

Turn: ($20.75) 6
diamond.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $11, Hero calls $11

River: ($42.75) 9
club.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $42.75
 
Lemlywinks

Lemlywinks

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 27, 2008
Total posts
1,240
Chips
0
hmmm, very interesting. I feel like he would have bet a smaller amount if he had wanted a "value bet call." It's almost like he is betting pot to scare you away from calling a bet with his overpair. However, You have really almost no reads as to the strength of his hand because you have just been calling the whole time.

That being said, I would still make this call. I put him on an overpair or a set at best
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
Against an unknown at 50NL, I think you can do this simply as an exercise of combinatorics and look at hands that he might think are strong enough to do this with:

75s (closing the action, this is hardly too far-fetched a hand to consider)
A6, 76, 86, 65, 33, 44, 66, 99, 64, 96, and then a bunch of flushes.

There are of course more hands he could be playing, but a good starting point is the strongest part of his range to see if we can beat even that 33% of the time (which is all we need given his pot sized river bet). So PokerStove tells us that versus a range of...

99,66,44-33,AdKd,AdQd,AdTd,Ad8d,Ad7d,A6s,KdQd,KdTd,Kd8d,Kd7d,QdTd,Qd9d,Qd8d,Qd7d,Td8d,Td7d,96s,86s,75s+,A6o,96o

... you're 40% to win and have an easy call.

And that's the STRONG part of his range. If you put in some overpairs and even some bluffs, you're way over the top.
 
pimpinalovabkln

pimpinalovabkln

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Total posts
99
Chips
0
IMO if he had a great hand, he wouldnt make that big of a raise.. , i believe he has the triip but you have him beat but can u please post the result of this hand.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
BelgoSuisse calls $36.05, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $6.70 returned to Jesu
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Jesu shows [3s 3h] a full house, Threes full of Sixes
BelgoSuisse mucks
Jesu wins the pot ($111.85) with a full house, Threes full of Sixes
 
vincemcnabb

vincemcnabb

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 7, 2007
Total posts
94
Chips
0
Oh man, that's a tough beat, I always feel like even when i hit my flush when the board pairs at the same time, there's a little uncertainty whether I have the best hand or not.
 
Top