[50NL 6max] big draw on turn

I got 15 outs on the turn. Should I fold to villain's bet, call or CRAI ?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $48.65 (97.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $49.75 (99.5 bb)
BTN: $96.20 (192.4 bb)
SB: $58.20 (116.4 bb)
BB: $69.80 (139.6 bb)
UTG: $9 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 9:heart: J:heart:
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, 3 folds, MP calls $2

Flop: ($8.75) 6:heart: A:heart: 7:spade: (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.50, BTN calls $5.50, MP calls $5.50

Turn: ($25.25) 8:diamond: (3 players)
MP checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $15, MP folds

well definitely don't fold, because calling is immediately profitable. you're about 2:1 to hit, and you're getting near 2.75:1 direct odds. that's enough to account for the rare time he has a better heart draw or something like A9/T9 to turn a lot of your wins into chops. that's not even including implied odds

whether a c/r can be more profitable is really player dependent and you didn't tell us anything about BTN. the better he is (at folding, mostly), the more viable a c/r becomes, because a) he may be able to fold an A and b) your implied odds will be less by just calling since he might make some good folds when you hit. the worse he is the better calling is for the obvious reverse reasons

when i know one route is +EV and am uncertain about the other, i generally go with the one i know is a money-maker

Very few reads on villain at this time. Only just sat at the table.

As Combu said, folding isn't really an option. If this is a somewhat solid player, shoving is likely your best bet. But you need him to be able to either float the flop with something less than a pair of aces OR be able to lay down top pair to a turn checkraise.

Well, I usually like to CRAI on these types of flops, but you lead out there so as played its close for a call or CRAI. As said folding is certainly not an option. There's certainly cases for both, I think for aggro image and metagame then CRAI might be +EV for future hands as well.

Jagsti said:

Well, I usually like to CRAI on these types of flops, but you lead out there so as played its close for a call or CRAI. As said folding is certainly not an option. There's certainly cases for both, I think for aggro image and metagame then CRAI might be +EV for future hands as well.

Click to expand...

About the flop: I'm the preflop raiser and got cold and there's an A on the flop. That usually gives a ton of fold equity when I cbet this flop.

On the turn, I did CRAI and got called by 66 who flopped a set. Obviously didn't have fold equity against a set, and I felt stupid at showdown, but in retrospect, i think it was probably fine against his whole range.

BTW, this was just after the CC hands-up 25nl 6max game with an avg. pot of $15, so the adrenaline hadn't washed out of my blood yet...

BelgoSuisse said:

About the flop: I'm the preflop raiser and got cold and there's an A on the flop. That usually gives a ton of fold equity when I cbet this flop.

Click to expand...

Also, on the flop I don't have such a great draw. Only have the flush and runner runner straight. I'm less than 40% favorite against TP. And the pot is still quite small which make a shove a big overbet. Is it such a great spot to CRAI?

BelgoSuisse said:

Also, on the flop I don't have such a great draw. Only have the flush and runner runner straight. I'm less than 40% favorite against TP. And the pot is still quite small which make a shove a big overbet. Is it such a great spot to CRAI?

Click to expand...

Well, I like to play my draws aggro, so it depends a lot on individuals, but I think CR is fine, CRAI may be a tad spewy .