[50nl 6max] AKs with flush draw on flop vs. reg nit

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Villain is a 10/7/3 reg (1300 hands) who does not 3bet light (4%). Should we 4bet pre? Should we raise flop? What should do we do on turn?

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (CO): $97 (194 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)
SB: $49.50 (99 bb)
BB: $97.85 (195.7 bb)
UTG: $50 (100 bb)
MP: $55.55 (111.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K
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A
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2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.25) 4
diamond.gif
J
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6
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(2 players)
BB bets $12.25, Hero calls $12.25

Turn: ($36.75) 3
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(2 players)
BB bets $36.75, Hero ???
 
Lemlywinks

Lemlywinks

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Against this type of player you are getting terrible odds to call that turn. His range has to be JJ+

Thinking this, there is a good chance that even if you pair your A/K, it still won't be good (holding AA/KK is definitely possible). That being said, you have a 20% chance of hitting the flush at the absolute best (If no one else is holding diamonds)

You can call and if you hit your flush that's good, but you can't do this one a regular basis and hope to come out ahead

Even with Implied Odds I don't think I can call that turn
 
Richyl2008

Richyl2008

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I believe I would play this the same way. I dont think it's good to 4bet here since your probably flipping with his range at best. I dont mind calling the flop bet with all the money that is still left behind, although on the turn I would have to fold. pot odds you are getting are bad and I don't think theres enough money behind for a call here to be profitable.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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In general, I'm not of the school that thinks that flushdraws have to be raised on the flop - especially not in position - but here, I think shoving is the way to go.

Your outs are solid. Vs. QQ you're even a favorite to win. Vs. a range of QQ,KK,AA you're 47% to win. Normally, this is a good - but not complete - reason to raise. Here, however, you do have some fold equity as well. Although his turn bet makes it unlikely (but is information we don't have on the flop) his actions up to this point could mean AK. And getting him to fold AK, and I can only assume he would to a shove, isn't half bad. And even if he calls, we're freerolling. If he's tight enough to even consider folding QQ on this flop, then we're in even better shape.

We really want to see all five cards, here. Shoving costs us very little in terms of expectation vs his big range, but lets us see a showdown and does have a little bit of value in fold equity.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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By the way, had our cards been AdQd, a push should probably be automatic. We have slightly worse equity vs QQ-AA, but our fold equity vs. AK all the greater.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I considered raising flop, but i thought i was too deep for that to be +EV. i guess i really need to do the math on this one.
 
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