50nl; 67s combo draw vs bet-raise deep

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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utg+1 is a 37/15/1.4 lag, and mp3 is 26/15/1.5.

Our line?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

UTG+1 ($102)
Hero ($55.15)
MP2 ($49.25)
MP3 ($30.20)
CO ($49.05)
Button ($53.10)
SB ($58.95)
BB ($49.50)
UTG ($29.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7
diamond.gif
, 6
diamond.gif
.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, MP3 calls $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.25) 9
diamond.gif
, 4
heart.gif
, 5
diamond.gif
(4 players)
BB bets $2, UTG+1 raises to $6, Hero ...
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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I'm calling here all day. You potentially risk the BB re-raising, but I think you have too strong of a draw to worry about that at this point. You have position which is key. Besides, doesn't the small bet strike you as blocking in nature and it seems unlikely he will re-raise. The question then becomes that if you hit your flush, will it be good?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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if you think they're bad enough to pay you off when an incredibly obvious diamond hits, you can call. otherwise only 6 of your outs have good implied odds. against most relatively competent players i'm raising to like ~$22 and calling a shove
 
B

bw07507

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I agree with combu here, flat calling behind here just screams draw, meaning no decent player will pay you off if your card comes, I like raising here and if it gets all in, this is fine as you are more than likely better than 50% to win here.
 
zachvac

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Raise. You're most likely a favorite to win here, and you could possibly have 3-way action. Now obviously if one has like AK or AQ of diamonds you're kinda screwed, but most of the time you have 15 outs here, making you a favorite to win. At this point I'm not worried about the BB, I'm worried about the guy who raised PF and then re-raised postflop. This could easily be an over pair trying to push out a flush draw or it could be AJ-AK of diamonds, figuring just as you are that they probably have the best hand right now and want to build the pot. Only problem is they'd be right. But I think the play here is a raise because the majority of the time you are more than 50% to win. I'd make it around $20 here and obviously call a shove.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Never finished this one. I raise to $21, both villains fold, UTG+1 claims he folded JJ.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Now obviously if one has like AK or AQ of diamonds you're kinda screwed
You still have 10 outs against AK of diamonds, and the odds of him hitting his (bigger) flush are reduced since you hold 2 diamonds. Thus, you're still 39% to win against AdKd or even Ad4d in this situation. 41% against top set, and 52% against an overpair (at worst).

Raise, get da monies in! And if they folded (which they did) even better. We don't have to coinflip for a large number of $$.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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You still have 10 outs against AK of diamonds, and the odds of him hitting his (bigger) flush are reduced since you hold 2 diamonds.

Well that's kind of silly thinking since he's leading already :)

I'm a little surprised we're actually still on that much equity vs AKd and A4d there; gives even more reason to get the money in.

Basically my reasoning in the hand was similar to what's been stated. If we cold call, we give up almost all FE, and we also make sure we get minimal action when/if we actually hit. By raising we push out all types of better hands and still have plenty of equity to fall back on.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'm a little surprised we're actually still on that much equity vs AKd and A4d there; gives even more reason to get the money in.
Yeah, this flop might've been a little more different with the 9 being the non-diamond. [Ad9d] on a [4d5d9s] flop has us looking at a 31% shot to win, and hands like [8d9d] have us crushed @ 25% on that flop.

But since the 4 is the non-suit card, fire away. We have outs to a flush, OESD, or a pair. The key is to have at least 2 out of three of those sets of outs live, and with the 4 being the non-suited card on the flop, we'll always have at least ~40% equity in this pot.
 
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