C9's rules of bluffing teh pplz (which may or may not be any good):
1) Is his range wide?
2) Are stack-off hands in his range?
3) Is the board "one of those boards" where people will call down super light?
4) Does their poker client come equipt with a fold button?
I think these are the main points to consider when bluffing these 1st level "What's my hand" type thinkers who aren't good enough to put you on a range. Also notice that "does my line make sense" is not one of those considerations. People suck at hand reading, and it is SOOOO RARE for someone to go "oh, he played the hand like X, I'm going to call with 2nd pair". They just don't do it unless you've been SOOO AGGRESSIVE and abusing the jesus out of them. This guy just won't realize that JJ is the same exact thing as AQ in this spot. But this is the first hand I'd even messed with this guy.
1) Obviously, yes, his range is hella wide. He 3-bets 11%, and I pretty much induced this turn bet by checking back the flop.
2) I also think once he checks back the flop the amount of stack off hands in his range decrease dramatically. You guys keep saying "Oh, he's going to slowplay you cuz you're aggressive." No, this is 50$NL, regs do not adjust. They play their game. They *might* adjust preflop if you start 4-betting their 3-bets & shit, but mostly they have rules in their head about how to play poker and they follow them. Thus, I think AQ+, KK+ becomes 95% not in his range after he checks the flop, leaving AJ, random suited aces as the only hands in his range that can get through a turn raise. I think his range is heavily weighted towards pocket pairs lower than a K, and KQ. Plus some A2s, AJs hands thrown in.
So yeah Zach, "He knows you're calling super-light there". You make statements like this ALL THE TIME in my hand analysis threads, and I think you project a level of skill on most villains that they just don't have, especially at this level.
3) No. This board is not 22QQ5.
4) Yes, he's a TAG, he knows how to fold.
Add in the fact that if he reads hands at all, he'd probably expect me to bet the flop if I had air, and he can easily rationalize "okay, he just trapped me with AK/AA/KK/AQ on the turn." Thus, I expected to get a lot of laydowns here. Plus, my line gets another bet from him, whereas betting the flop doesn't :P.