$50NL 6-max: Over pair 200bb's deep spot #2 - Overbet Jam'd on flop by fish

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I've been playing nothing but 200bb deep tables for the past few months and its really been a big adjustment. I think my play with over pairs is pretty crappy, so I figure I'd post two hands & get your reactions. Here's the second one.

A few things to keep in mind:

1) People are getting odds to set-mine even in 3-bet pots.
2) Fish are less likely to ship 200bb's in with top pair hands (that's been my experience).

Hand #2:

Villain is a 29/11/40%(2.5) over 119 hands
3-bet % = 0%
Fold to 3-bet = 20%

BB: $100 (200 bb)
UTG: $29.57 (59.1 bb)
MP: $116.23 (232.5 bb)
CO: $90.44 (180.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $140.05 (280.1 bb)
SB: $15.25 (30.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K K
2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, CO calls $6.25

Flop: ($16.75) 6 Q J (2 players)
CO bets $82.44 and is all-in, Hero?????

Villain is obviously bad, so what do we expect to see here? We beat AK, AQ, but that's about it unless he can do this with worse. Is this shove a big hand or a weak one?
 
vanquish

vanquish

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snapcall he's never doing this with a set, so you only have QJ to be afraid of
 
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bw07507

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I snap this every time. I agree with vanq that he is never doing this with a set and the only hand that has u beat that might do this is QJ which u have outs to improve against. Mostly I think you are way ahead here though.
 
zachvac

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Yeah I expect to see 9T/99/TT WAY more than JQ and I wouldn't be surprised to see AK/AQ/KQ here a lot. Basically I'm never folding this against an unknown like this. That's right fish. You all get one over-bet shove for value against me and I'll look you up light.

But yeah just call imo. If he has a set/AA then write a note and don't call his overshoves without a monster in the future.
 
jaymfc

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66 , JJ , QQ , QJ . I'd run like the scurred lil bitch that I am :)
donkey he is but does he have the nads to push all in with AQ ? I guess many do but tough call . way overbet does smell fishy .
 
NineLions

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Yeah I expect to see 9T/99/TT WAY more than JQ and I wouldn't be surprised to see AK/AQ/KQ here a lot.

^^^ rather than type it out I'll just quote zach
 
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baudib1

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I don't think you can fold this. I think it is AK/AQ or TT a lot more than a hand that beats you.
 
vanquish

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fwiw vanquish theorem #4: relatively bad players will snapjam on flops with hands that take up around the 25-50% strongest part of their range (usually pairs smaller than the biggest overcard on the board) because they get scared
 
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baudib1

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Yeah I think it's TT/AK A LOT.

TT = OMG, they have teh AK, I'm shoving any flop without an A or K.
AK = OMG, gutshot gives me 10 outs and they can't call!
 
drewbabez

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What an idiot bet on the flop...no matter what he has it is just a horrible bet, some people almost seem like they WANT to go broke. They have to expect to get called here by a hand that has them crushed. Obviously you should beat this moron into the pot. I'm go out on a limp and say he called your huge re-raise with the 10 9, and he's praying to god he'll luck out lol
 
BelgoSuisse

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I used to hate when a fish donked into me. Now I've decided to assume that anytime a fish does that, he has second pair, and act accordingly. I think it's working out quite fine. Since we beat second pair here, i snap call, with fist pump.
 
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toybits

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hmm, the only hands that beat me are set 6s, Js, and QJ (I would think QQ would 4bet or even push). The 2.5 is AF right? could be a good chance he's doing it with AQ or AK. Plus the fact that it's a very big overbet which looks he's trying to push you out...call and hope he's bluffing :)
 
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toybits

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by the way did you call? if you did, what was his hand?
 
FereZ

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K K, is still strong hand on flop 6 J Q, If he just try to steal or rob the pot, he have very strong hand or very bad hand.. If hes on tilt, he can just push all in with straight draw lol. Did you win him?!
 
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feitr

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I snap call this. I completely agree with vanquish...IMO this tends to be ppl having a "decent" hand, but one that they are just too scared to bet and get raised all in and have to call it off, so they end up making a retarded thin value bluff.

Kinda the same reason that some players would jam the turn with a weaker hand facing a double barrel, when villain either has them crushed or is bluffing, and will often fire the 3rd barrel. They are just too scared to suck it up, and call off their stack, because they don't want to see another scare card which makes a call really hard - even tho calling off your stack vs somebody who has a polarized range is clearly the best option, because you are getting it in vs the widest range, and such a line is the only way you can get that final bet in with your hand being best a % of the time. So being scared makes you try to "scare away the bluff", even though that clearly makes no sense.
 
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viking999

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Are we basing his fishiness just on the insanity of his flop bet? I don't play a ton of 6-max or deep stack, but I imagine both of those would lend themselves to higher VPIP, so 29% isn't that crazy. So his stats seem pretty normal.

I think a call is best, but I'd expect the occasional crafty player shoving into you with a set to get paid off, putting you on AA, KK, or AK. Also, some players will go on TAG-tilt, which means they monster bet all of their monster hands because they're sick of getting sucked out on. That's very rare, though, so call it. You may execute up to a 64% fist pump, if desired.
 
widowmaker89

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29/11 is terrible because he is calling/flatting 18% of the time which is not good. 29 is a bit high as well but the fish evidence is more the spread here.

This is a snapcall as everyone else mentioned. Im guessing you lost this one but you are good here a majority of the time.
 
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viking999

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29/11 is terrible because he is calling/flatting 18% of the time which is not good. 29 is a bit high as well but the fish evidence is more the spread here.

Yeah, the spread is bad. However, I don't think it's an indication that he's going to be shoving weak. If anything, it seems to indicate the opposite, because he's passive. I would say the stats only help us understand his possible hand range, not narrow down what part of that range he's overshoving with.
 
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