$50NL 6-max: Over pair 200bb's deep spot #1 - Beluga'd on Turn by Reg

I've been playing nothing but 200bb deep tables for the past few months and its really been a big adjustment. I think my play with over pairs is pretty crappy, so I figure I'd post two hands & get your reactions. Here's the first one.

A few things to keep in mind:

1) People are getting odds to set-mine even in 3-bet pots.
2) Fish are less likely to ship 200bb's in with top pair hands (that's been my experience).

Hand #1:

This hand is against what looks like a solid reg. Stats as follows:

20/17/37%(3.0) over 479 hands
Fold to c-bet in regular (non 3-bet pots) = 44% (9 flops)
Folded to 3 out of 6 3-bets (50%)
3-bets 6% of the time (10% from the button, 11% from the BB)

BTN: $93.05 (186.1 bb)
SB: $159.05 (318.1 bb)
BB: $38.50 (77 bb)
UTG: $97.40 (194.8 bb)
MP: $99.75 (199.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $104.35 (208.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Q♥ Q♦
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, MP calls $5.25

Flop: ($14.75) 2♦ 9♣ J♣ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $11.05, MP calls $11.05

Turn: ($36.85) 7♥ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $22.25, MP raises to $81.70 and is all-in, Hero?????


So on the turn our hand becomes a bluff catcher. Anyone feel like playing outfield?

i'd say this is generally either a set or a combo draw. since he should have very few combo draws based on his calling the large 3bet preflop OOP, i'd say his range is weighted strongly towards sets. there's a chance at AQc. possibly a really tricky AA? if AJ even calls preflop, it's hard to believe they play it this strong. so even though it's a pretty narrow range he reps, i can't help but think his range of worse hands and bluffs is even more narrow

so yeah, i fold. also i prob check behind turn if he's decent enough to not make a bad preflop defend OOP with AJ. depends how good he is i guess. vs. anyone who's good at all (short of you having a maniac image), there really shouldn't be much value at all in a turn bet 200 bbs deep. i kinda hope you called though, cause i have a feeling that if you did he showed up with something he shouldn't have had, so it might be interesting

Not too fond of the turn bet either.

Villain represents the set perfectly. Probably not a lot of T8 in his range, i guess. A bit strange for a draw to CR on turn and not on flop where he still has more equity in the hand.

I hate it but i probably fold here.

saw the other hand first, this one's an easier fold. i don't see too many hands you beat with the check-call-check-push line. AJ is a loose pf call and he would have donk bet/check raised the flop. The turn push with a flush draw is a possibilty, but most would have been aggressive on the flop with it. I'm thinking he''s pushing now because the 7 scared him with a potential straight on the board

I agree with everyone that you should fold the turn.

Regarding the turn value bet, I'm trying to figure out a hand you get value from. AJ is one of them, but it's a very unlikely preflop call. TT could still be in the hand, but it's almost always folding the turn. Seems to me the turn value bet is only good for AcKc or AcQc. However, by betting the turn against a flush draw, you may also be missing out on picking off river bluffs in position when no A, K, or club gets there. So I think betting the turn might be a -EV spot.