$50NL 6-max: LAG shoves blankish river 200bb's deep, call /w overpair?

Villain is a 33/29/38%(3.3) LAG over 200 hands. His 3-bet % is 9%. There's been some decent 3-betting history between us, but none while we were 200bb's deep. He prolly views me as tightish, since I've won some pots off of him (KK vs. AK AIPF), but oddly enough we haven't clashed big time other than this hand. Button is a 32/9 fish who folds to a ton of c-bets if it matters.

MP: $30.27 (60.5 bb)
CO: $62.65 (125.3 bb)
BTN: $100.04 (200.1 bb)
Hero: $103.70 (207.4 bb)
BB: $113.20 (226.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with K♠ K♦
2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) 5♦ 4♦ J♥ (3 players)
Hero bets $5, BB calls $5, BTN folds

Turn: ($16) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $12, BB calls $12

River: ($40) 9♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $22, BB raises to $94.20 and is all-in, Hero cries....


This board kinda sucks for me, but given his stats & the fact that he might know this, can this ever be a call? If not, what's our calling range on this river?

ugh would have preferred like 30 on the river. when you bet 22 it becomes so hard to know if he is shoving coz you are betting weak.

Pretty sick spot in any case. Unless you have seen this from him before then w/o history i muck here. Almost nothing missed unless he has exactly Ad5 or Ad4 and he probably won't show up with those as they'd have to be unsuited and he shouldn't be flatting with them. It would be a pretty advanced play to turn a pair here into a big bluff. That said i really like his play coz given the board and your bet sizing you almost always have something fairly thin. Tough spot but i think it is spew to call without some history.

Meh honestly I think it's a tougher decision with a set here. I think this is pretty much a fold. Also to feitr I don't get what you mean about this always being thin from c9. He plays all flushes this way as well as sets which most people don't try to get people to make crazy hero folds.

zachvac said:

Meh honestly I think it's a tougher decision with a set here. I think this is pretty much a fold. Also to feitr I don't get what you mean about this always being thin from c9. He plays all flushes this way as well as sets which most people don't try to get people to make crazy hero folds.

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Bet sizing mainly. Would you really half pot it here with a set or a flush c9 (maybe, not sure)? Betting half pot on this river is rarely done in an attempt to induce and this sort of villain is probably more likely to call a big bet that looks more like a bluff than a 1/2 pot value bet.

Also i think a set = KK here for all intensive purposes. With straight and flush possibilities out there i don't see how villain is ever shoving 2 pair or a small set for value. So KK = set = bluff catcher.

feitr said:

Bet sizing mainly. Would you really half pot it here with a set or a flush c9 (maybe, not sure)? Betting half pot on this river is rarely done in an attempt to induce and this sort of villain is probably more likely to call a big bet that looks more like a bluff than a 1/2 pot value bet.

Also i think a set = KK here for all intensive purposes. With straight and flush possibilities out there i don't see how villain is ever shoving 2 pair or a small set for value. So KK = set = bluff catcher.

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Well generally bet sizing should be based on our range, not on our individual hand, so the bet sizing should be the same whether we have a bluff, thin value, or monster getting value and calling a shove.

zachvac said:

Well generally bet sizing should be based on their calling range & how they'll perceive our bet

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Just my opinion...

Also, Feitr, you fold sets on this board since they're equivalent to KK?

zachvac said:

Well generally bet sizing should be based on our range, not on our individual hand, so the bet sizing should be the same whether we have a bluff, thin value, or monster getting value and calling a shove.

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What something "should" be and what something actually is tends to be completely different in reality. Bet sizing tells are absolutely a valid component of hand reading.

Hero doesn't have a flush here often at all, probably never has a straight, rarely has a set or two pair type hand and so i don't think there is anything wrong with my initial statement that hero will often have a hand that cannot stand much heat on this river. You can say well hero would play a set/flush the same but the simple fact is those hands just don't make up much of his range at all.

Also, Feitr, you fold sets on this board since they're equivalent to KK?

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I think if you fold KK here you should fold sets unless you have some sort of read that villain can value shove very light. And if you call with sets i think you have to call with KK. I don't think sets or 2 pair are part of villains range here ever because he would have put in far far more action in earlier streets and if he rivered a set/2pair with J9 i don't think he'd shove on this board. You can't just say "i have a set, i can't fold so call", you have to think what villain is representing and how your hand fares against that range, and in this case i don't think villain is shoving anything in between KK and top set. w/o some strong reads i think we have to presume villain has a very polarized range on this board, aka big flushes and hands that have been turned into a bluff.

And i also agree with your change to zach's quote - i don't think bet sizing has to be standard by any sense unless in not doing so we are essentially turning our hand face up with bet sizing tells.

Super-easy fold imo.

Btw, I think villain can definitely be shoving 2 pairs or a set here. His value range is J7+ imo.

But he doesn't play any 2 pair or set other than possibly J9 and 99 (which this guy 3Bs) this way. You think an aggro guy flops a set on a super drawy board then calls flop and turn and shoves river? If he rivered a set maybe, but 99 3Bs pre w/ this guy. I just don't think at nl50 200bbs deep you will get that many ppl shoving top 2 for value on this kinda board.