Originally Posted by zachvac
Well generally bet sizing should be based on our range, not on our individual hand, so the bet sizing should be the same whether we have a bluff, thin value, or monster getting value and calling a shove.
What something "should" be and what something actually is tends to be completely different in reality. Bet sizing tells
are absolutely a valid component of hand reading.
Hero doesn't have a flush here often at all, probably never has a straight, rarely has a set or two pair type hand and so i don't think there is anything wrong with my initial statement that hero will often have a hand that cannot stand much heat on this river. You can say well hero would play a set/flush the same but the simple fact is those hands just don't make up much of his range at all.
Also, Feitr, you fold sets on this board since they're equivalent to KK?
I think if you fold KK here you should fold sets unless you have some sort of read that villain can value shove very light. And if you call with sets i think you have to call with KK. I don't think sets or 2 pair are part of villains range here ever because he would have put in far far more action in earlier streets and if he rivered a set/2pair with J9 i don't think he'd shove on this board. You can't just say "i have a set, i can't fold so call", you have to think what villain is representing and how your hand fares against that range, and in this case i don't think villain is shoving anything in between KK and top set. w/o some strong reads i think we have to presume villain has a very polarized range on this board, aka big flushes and hands that have been turned into a bluff.
And i also agree with your change to zach's quote - i don't think bet sizing has to be standard by any sense unless in not doing so we are essentially turning our hand face up with bet sizing tells.