$50NL 6-max: BOOM BOOM BOOM, 3 Barrels into TAG 200bb's deep

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Villain is a 26/16/28%(1.0) over 85 hands.
C-bet % = 60%
Fold to C-bet = 67%

How much strength do you think he's showing after he calls 2 streets on this board? What is his likely hand range?

Also, would you bet the river on the following cards: T, 8, K, A, Q, J


Ultimate Bet, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $51.15 (102.3 bb)
MP: $33.25 (66.5 bb)
CO: $73.70 (147.4 bb)
BTN: $33.35 (66.7 bb)
SB: $101.75 (203.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $141.61 (283.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 5♠ A♠
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) 9♠ J 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.15, CO folds, SB calls $5.15

Turn: ($16.30) 9♠ J 7Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12.75, SB calls $12.75

River: ($41.80) 9♠ J 7 Q 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $32.75
 
Richyl2008

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I would assume he's leading out here with all his overpairs and sets most of the time on this board. TBH the only hand that really makes a lot of sense here to me is 1010. I'm sure his range is wider than that though, but I cant really put him on much else the way he played it, unless he had something he planned to ch/raise the turn with and the board didnt cooperate. I think the only card I would be willing to barrel on the river that you mentioned would be a queen or maybe an ace. His range also depends on if he's squeezing lite out of the sb, if hes only squeezing for value, I think 10's make make the most sense IMO

Now that I think about it KQs might also be in his range, in which case I'm not too sure about barreling the queen, but I definately wouldnt be happy with 8,10,k on the river
 
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blankoblanco

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i like it. i think he shows up with TT/JT/T9/88 here a lot and calls turn because of the pair and straight draw. you might get looked up by like QT (or KQ if he c/c's flop with it?), even though he still only beats a bluff, just because people are dumb and don't understand ranges. hard to imagine he plays a set or two pair this way

i'd barrel an A for sure, probably a T if he's not stupid. i wouldn't barrel an 8 or K. Q or J are iffy and depend on more specific facets of how i view him, i guess. i'd barrel pretty much everything else
 
F Paulsson

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What are you representing?

What's his WTSD?

And 26/16/1 is not my idea of either tight or aggressive.
 
Jagsti

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Yeah I don't think he's TAG with those stats. However I don't mind your triple barrell here your repping sets, 2pr and made str8's on the turn. He's calling down probably with a weak pair on that board and looks like he'll fold to a decent river bet.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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What are you representing?
Who cares, what is he repping? TT, 88? I'm having a hard time thinking of other stuff that really makes sense. He's not thinking about what I'm holding, so why does that even matter? How about QJs? Or A5s that knows this guy can't be that strong, unless he's slowplaying a monster in some unlikely way.

What's his WTSD?
29% over the small sample, so yeah, kinda high.

And 26/16/1 is not my idea of either tight or aggressive.
Well yeah, he's not really a TAG. More just a guy who's not a complete fish. He knows he's supposed to play tight, he knows raising is better than just limping preflop, he probably has some clue about hand values.
 
F Paulsson

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Who cares, what is he repping? TT, 88? I'm having a hard time thinking of other stuff that really makes sense. He's not thinking about what I'm holding, so why does that even matter? How about QJs? Or A5s that knows this guy can't be that strong, unless he's slowplaying a monster in some unlikely way.
The reason I'm asking is because when I see a guy with his stats check a flop like this and then call, he seems to be calling three barrels a lot with a hand like KJ or A9; a bluff catcher. Do you have any history with him, have you bluffed him unsuccessfully or successfully a lot earlier in the session..?

If this were me, AJ and KJ are decidely in my range, and I'd quite possibly call off three barrels if I had any reason to believe the BB was spewy. I decidedly wouldn't bet the flop.

Why do you suppose he didn't bet the flop?
 
JimmyBrizzy

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But never in his. No one who plays like this ever checks top pair for pot control on the flop.

Just wondering the reasoning behind the statement...he does seem passive so while he's not checking for pot control neccessarily I can see him checking.

Maybe he has some understanding of wa/wb, or is that giving him too much credit?

Also wanted to know what made you take this line against a player that leans on the side of a calling station.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Just wondering the reasoning behind the statement...he does seem passive so while he's not checking for pot control neccessarily I can see him checking.

Maybe he has some understanding of wa/wb, or is that giving him too much credit?

Also wanted to know what made you take this line against a player that leans on the side of a calling station.
Well this guy c-bets 60% of the time, and he's too passive & generally bad to know what BA/WB is. Guys like this see top pair, and bet. If he was a 20/18/3.5 TAG that 3-bet more often, I'd be more inclined to give him credit for such a play. Plus, this board isn't all that happy for top pair type hands, so I may get him to fold a jack (JT/KJ) anyways (if he was a decent tag).

And against passive/peely players, you can't just bluff them away with 1 barrel. You really need to be prepared to fire 2-3, and it takes a certain feel for how weak their range is. I'm almost certain this guy had at least a gutshot, and I figure TT, 88, AT are his most likely holdings. A guy this passive isn't betting his draws. So I certainly wasn't checking the river when all the draws missed, when draws (that have pairs) make up a good portion of his range imo.

So what made me take this line is that he didn't c-bet (so that excludes a lot of top pair+ hands), and the board was fairly scary, and there were a lot of hands that I could have that would go for 3 streets on a board of this texture. I barreled the turn since the Q is an overcard to the jack, and it hits a range that bets this flop fairly well. And I think the river was a pretty easy bet even with ace high for showdown value since most of his draws have pairs of some sort that he can fold.

It also helps that the CO in this hand is a super nit. If he had called, and an ace hit on the turn, I was still check/folding.

I also never said my 3-barrel worked ;)
 
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bolda3

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I would guess he has A high beat, especially from his past playing. I'm not a high stakes player, so I'm laying it down without pairing my A or hitting a good drawing flop.
 
WVHillbilly

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I would guess he has A high beat, especially from his past playing. I'm not a high stakes player, so I'm laying it down without pairing my A or hitting a good drawing flop.

You see that's the beauty of poker, he doesn't get to know that C9 has Ace high. The real question is if he has enough of a hand (or he's just that bad) to call the 3/4 pot size bet on the river.

Speaking of that if you think you're going to fire the river, why not size your bet down a couple of bucks of the turn so your river bet is pot sized or a little greater (make it say $10.25 instead of $12.75)? It saves you a couple $$ if he crai on the turn and makes your river bet seem scarier.
 
JimmyBrizzy

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Well this guy c-bets 60% of the time, and he's too passive & generally bad to know what BA/WB is. Guys like this see top pair, and bet.

So what made me take this line is that he didn't c-bet (so that excludes a lot of top pair+ hands), and the board was fairly scary, and there were a lot of hands that I could have that would go for 3 streets on a board of this texture. I barreled the turn since the Q is an overcard to the jack, and it hits a range that bets this flop fairly well. And I think the river was a pretty easy bet even with ace high for showdown value since most of his draws have pairs of some sort that he can fold.

Aahh, makes sense, thanks!
 
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