$50NL 6-max: Beluga Bluff on the turn 200bb's deep 3 way pot

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I like raising. Its way more fun than folding. So I raised the turn, cuz I think its a good card to bluff, and this guy is a silly weak TAG who plays silly TAG poker.

To be specific, CO is a 22/20/35%(2.7) with a c-bet % of 80% over 218 hands. His steal is 31%.

BB is a 35/10/21%(2.5) over 237. His fold to c-bet is 68%, so he's by no means a station.

BB: $96.50 (193 bb)

UTG: $45.10 (90.2 bb)
MP: $74.70 (149.4 bb)
CO: $99.55 (199.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): $93.10 (186.2 bb)
SB: $90.71 (181.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K J
2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) 4 8 3 (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, BB calls $4.50

Turn: ($19) 2 (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $14.50, Hero raises to $45

All in favor, say aye.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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eh i'm not usually gonna try to make people fold overpairs at 50NL 6max when you're basically repping sets (and like 56s). and you're just exposing yourself to unnecessary risk with BB still being in the hand because if he himself has 33/44/88/56/A5 you done screwed yourself. i realize it looks super strong and you basically HAVE to have it, but i don't make $ by depending on people to have a clue, i make most of my $ by them not having a clue. it's creative and it will work decently often, just requires kind of a specific read to say if it can be +EV. also depends on your table image obv, and i'd imagine they've seen you be very loose and aggro, which hurts your cause

vs. allen cunningham and phil ivey i love it
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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K, specific read you want, I'll see if I can give you one. This guy is a reg that I played with back when UB & AP weren't merged. He's just kinda weak, as seen in this hand. This particular hand happened after the one in question, but I think it gives you a decent idea of how he kinda plays scared.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 4s, 2s, Qc ]
Villain bets [$3.50 USD]
Hero calls [$3.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
Villain bets [$8.50 USD]
Hero calls [$8.50 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
Villain checks
CEENINE bets [$19.25 USD]
Villain calls [$19.25 USD]
Hero shows [4c, 5c ]
Villain shows [2d, 2h ]
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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what about your own table image though? i think that's super important here
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I don't hate it, but I don't think it'll work often enough, specifically because it's 3-handed. Heads-up, I think it would have been OK a lot more often and versus most of his calling range you have 3-6 outs to save you on the river, too.

I really don't like preflop, though. 3-bet or get out of there; there's no innate value to be had from playing KJo, even in position, versus a guy with a relatively solid game. As opposed to a guy playing 50/40 or something fun like that, where I'm calling every time.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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3-bet or get out of there
This guy floats/4-bets a lot of my 3-bets. KJ is flipping with his stealing range, and he plays fairly poorly postflop IMO, though his preflop game is sollid. Shouldn't I be more inclined to call with position than 3-bet & essentially turn my hand into a bluff? Plus I already 3-bet too much as is :p.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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This guy floats/4-bets a lot of my 3-bets. KJ is flipping with his stealing range, and he plays fairly poorly postflop IMO, though his preflop game is sollid. Shouldn't I be more inclined to call with position than 3-bet & essentially turn my hand into a bluff? Plus I already 3-bet too much as is :p.

The problem with a hand like KJ is the reverse implied odds. There are very few flops that you connect with that he'd like to play a big pot in with KTo, for instance. Originally I was going to say that you have domination issues, but that's not entirely correct because the problem is rather that you may well be dominating HIM, but you're not going to get paid off when you do.

So since you can't expect to win a big pot postflop, and since you can't fold every time you miss the flop, you will have to bluff a fair share to make up for the speculative preflop call. If he's a big nit postflop, then I like it. If he's showdown bound at all (>20%, really) then I don't think seeing a flop is +EV.

Don't get me wrong though, it's close. With KQo, I would have thought it's OK. But there are twice as many hands that dominate KJ, and I think that makes the difference here.
 
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