[50NL 6-Max] AK vs AJQ flop

Villain is 37/15/2 and c-bets the flop 37% of the time.
I've checked down hands with him to river a couple times this session.

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SavagePenguin (CO): $56.15 (112.3 bb)
BTN: $177.85 (355.7 bb)
SB: $49.50 (99 bb)
BB: $59.40 (118.8 bb)
UTG: $62 (124 bb)
MP: $20.45 (40.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: SavagePenguin is CO with Ac Ks
UTG raises to $1, MP folds, SavagePenguin raises to $3, 3 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($6.75) As Jd Qh (2 players)
UTG bets $3.50...

Moi?

Just bleh. I'm not raising, I'm calling this flop and re-evaluating on the turn.

I would just call here. That is a really bad flop to raise if you consider his range when he raised utg and called a 3bet. Pretty much wa/wb

I folded. Too nitty?

icemonkey9 said:

Just bleh. I'm not raising, I'm calling this flop and re-evaluating on the turn.

Click to expand...

So what if the turn is a *anything* except a T and he bets again? Just keep calling as long as the bets remain around half pot?

My thought was, since I 3-bet the guy I'm all over the range that the flop hits. I figured he's know that, yet he c-bet anyway.
He c-bets 37% of the time, which means he only does it about 5% of the time that he doesn't connect with the flop. And I'd say that if he hit that flop he likely hit it pretty hard.

I saw he was capable of checking down hands too.

So I just folded and made a "Eeeeeeehhh!" old man noise at the screen.

I'm not so sure I would fold this hand, personally. Considering he C-bets 37% of the time and he has an ag factor of 2, I don't see his C-bet as anything too out of the ordinary. Scary board? Hell yes! He could easily be holding 2 pair here, with a hand like AJ or KQ suited although a middle ace like ace/9 ace/8 is not out of the question. He could also have such holdings as KQ or Ace/10, putting you ahead but still scared. Although I certainly cannot say your fold was a bad play, a call or reraise would be my 2 options on that 3.50 bet. You're getting a little less than 3:1 pot odds, with 3.50 into 10.25 on the call, so if you think you've got better than 25-30% chance here, i'd say at least a call is in order. Who knows, villain could have 1010 here? Again, just speculation but thats my 2 cents.

While this is not a spot you want to build a huge pot with it's not something you can fold either. He's just too loose and aggressive of a player to fold to the flop bet.

You have position, use it. Call the flop bet and try to get to a cheap showdown. I'm generally folding to a turn bet unless it's another tiny 1/2 pot bet again.

I'm 3betting more pf as a general rule too - 3.5x IP, closer to 4x OOP.

Thanks, Chuck.

Besides what Chuck said, I really like having donkbet% as a stat on the HUD. It helps a lot in these spots.

Yeah we can't fold the flop here. Although there are a lot of two pair+ hands in his range that beat us, there are a lot of pair+gutshot combos he could have that we're ahead of, and maybe even the occasional silly bluff, even in spite of the fact that donkbluffing that flop is pretty bizarre.

Call, aim for a cheap showdown unless we hit an especially good or bad card.