Originally Posted by switch0723
I dont mean to be disrespectful c9h... but i dont think you do have an idea of how split games work.
Disclaimer: I have no idea how to play split pot games.
However, even if I'm wrong, it'll be educational arguing for the wrong end of the argument.
But in this particular instance, I think my line of leading out smaller will have more merit (as opposed to the other O8 thread).
I may just be bad at putting players on hands in split pot games, but I can't see this guy calling a raise with *only* a draw to the low. I figure the range of the villain is as follows (assuming he's not a donkey/bad O8 player).
1) [3XXX] with or without a low hand.
2) [25XX] with a flush draw, or an ace.
3) [24XX] with a flush draw, or an ace.
Hands in category 2 are less likely IMO, since their draws to the high hand are rather weak, and they're drawing to the non-nut low. And even if we pound them, they're probably not folding away since they hit one of their draws, and they've proved they're willing to call with marginal hands.
IMO this could very possibly be a [3XXX] hand. This is the hand we stand to make the most money from, and its also the hand that we can fold away easiest with a strong bet, especially if he doesn't have a low hand.
Sure, we may lose half the pot sometimes by not jamming this for the max on the turn & riv. However, we stand to earn a substantial amount more by keeping hands we have beat around. And there's always the chance we can counterfeit their low (albeit small).
So what's easier to do? Fold out a 2nd nut low hand by making 2 pot sized bets? Or leading on a more fragile high hand for a big scoop with a half pot bet?
Given the behavior of the villain, I think it's gonna be pretty hard to fold out a 2nd nut low now, so why play it like he has a weaker high hand? Is it really that easy to get 2nd nut lows to fold? I don't really know.
Or I could totally be smokin' crack, and be really really wrong.