$50 PL O 6-max: PLO newb, top set/nut fd against likely turned straight

I'm a PLO noob, this was my first session above penny ante, and this was one of the first hands I was dealt last night. Chalk up the flop and turn betsizes to noobness/stupidity/tech difficulties.

Villain is multitabling, and another multitabling player just called her an idiot after winning a stack from her w a flush > straight, but beyond that I know nothing about her.

1. Pot preflop (please ease up on the ldo comments, I'm a noob)? If I do and am 3bet, do I call or 4bet/get it in against an unknown opponent?

2. I'm assuming the raise has to be a straight. I'm counting 8 flush outs, 1 A, 1 Q, 3 4's, and 3 T's for 16 total outs, and I'm assuming the straight is unlikely to have a better redraw than any of my outs. Flatting here means I won't get paid off on the river if I hit one of my outs. Is my reasoning ok?

3. Assuming my reasoning is ok, shove?

pokerstars Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($10.95)
SB ($47.05)
BB ($50.75)
Hero (UTG) ($50)
MP ($49.25)
CO ($53.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , , ,
Hero calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($2.25) , , (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.15, 2 folds, BB calls $2.15

Turn: ($6.55) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.25, BB raises to $25, HERO ???

Please take my analysis with the disclaimer that I'm not a PLO expert.

Yes, pot preflop and it would not be incorrect to 4bet/get it in if raised. You have at least 60% equity against most hands preflop (based on simulations at propokertools.com). If the chance of flopping badly and losing your buyin would hurt you enough that it would affect your game (or bankroll, if you're not playing within advisable limits), I don't believe just calling a reraise would be a terrible mistake either. You'd be sacrificing long-term equity for short-term safety.

Just call the check-raise on the turn. Your equity at that point is about 40%, more than enough to call the raise, but why get more money in as a dog?

I don't play PLO either so... does the check raise on the river mean anything significant?

I'd say you likely have ~45% equity in this pot. I think you are right he has the straight. What does that mean you should do?

roundcat said:

Just call the check-raise on the turn. Your equity at that point is about 40%, more than enough to call the raise, but why get more money in as a dog?

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If this were NLHE and I had 40%+ equity in the pot, there are a couple of reasons I'd be thinking about getting it in:

1. I'd be less certain villain has a straight here in NLHE, so I wouldn't be convinced I'm a dog .

2. A paired board or an obvious flush could kill the river action, so I might not get paid off. Calling and hitting one of my outs would get me half of villain's stack, but not necessarily the whole stack. Shoving and hitting one of my outs will get villain's entire stack (assuming villain never folds here). Of course, shoving and missing will lose my entire stack...

3. There's dead money in the pot. Dead money can be factored into my overall equity in the pot, and offsets (to a certain extent) the times that I miss my outs and lose.

So, as cAPS says, if we have the equity correct, I guess it's a matter of figuring out whether there's enough dead money to offset the fact I'm a dog.

I went to propokertools, put in my hand and the board, and gave villain KdJd6c5c (trying to keep all my outs live ). It gave Hero 43% equity.

So, question, I only see 16 outs w 44 cards left (I listed the outs I see in op), which is only 36%? Why is the simulation giving me 43%? You guys are also seeing 40%+, what am I missing?

I've got about $41 behind at this point, the pot is $38 already - that's quite a bit of dead money, more than enough to offset 40%+ equity I think but I'm not sure if it's enough to offset 36% equity - so part of the question is how much of the $38 is considered dead money, which I don't know the answer to?

As I've said in other posts, I suck at math and go w my gut alot in these situations (as you may have guessed already, I shoved, but I'm not sure that was the correct play).

Mamushi said:

I don't play PLO either so... does the check raise on the river mean anything significant?

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Ch/r on the turn has to mean a monster of some sort - it can't be top set (I've got it), the flush hasn't materialized yet and he can't be drawing to the nut flush (I've got it), there's no obvious combo draw, so presumably it's the nut straight, maybe w a flush or fh redraw (which could remove two of my outs)...

EDIT: I went back and re-ran the simulation w a fh redraw (KJTT, no hearts) and it dropped my equity to 35% fwiw.

The methods you would usualy use to make quick equity calculations in your head become more inacurate when you have 12+ outs.
That could acount for the difrence.

As for the hands i cant really comment much since i almost never play PLO and have litle clue how to play.
But this is def a prf raise and yeah you should be getting it in if 3bet imo.

Raise preflop please. Bet the turn a bit smaller so you have more left behind on the river if he raises.

What everyone is missing about the preflop raise is the effect it has on the pot size. This allows you to get all in (or close to it) on the river with a bet/bet/shove line. If you don't raise preflop, you have to get raised (or check/raise) somewhere in the hand in order to get all the money in. And since you have a hand with 3 solid ways of making the nuts (AQ, AA, AXs), and you will 4-bet if you're re-raised, a preflop raise is absolutely standard.

As played, shoving the turn is horrible, because you're almost never ahead, and he's never folding the river when there's ~$60 in the pot and he has $25 behind. Call, jam anything that makes your hand the nuts.

c9h13no3 said:

Raise preflop please.

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Would you also 4bet if reraised?

roundcat said:

Would you also 4bet if reraised?

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c9h13no3 said:

and you will 4-bet if you're re-raised, a preflop raise is absolutely standard.

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Uh, ya?

I dont play plo that much either so im also a bit noobish but if your asking what to do on the turn, I think its a pretty easy call.

c9h13no3 said:

Uh, ya?

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Heh, gotta work on my reading comprehension skills.

Maybe my math is off but I count 21 outs. And with 24 cards left I'm definitely shoving the turn. Correct me if I'm wrong. (And I know C9 you will )

Why are people sooo concerned that they have the straight? Do they really peel flop with a bare kj? Surely they bet/raise their wrap draws in a limped pot?

The other problem is that nothing else plays this way except kj so just call and jam if you nut river. People need to remember that with omaha you aren't just looking at the cards used in made hands, such as kj here but you have to think what they call flop with along with the kj. Most likely kjt that didnt raise or akj here

bubbasbestbabe said:

Maybe my math is off but I count 21 outs. And with 24 cards left I'm definitely shoving the turn. Correct me if I'm wrong. (And I know C9 you will )

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Like switch says, nothing plays this way except for KJ. We have ~40% equity against KJ, and villain is never folding after putting half his stack in. Thus, when we shove, we just put all the money in as a 40% dog.

If we call, we can put the money in on the river when we make the nuts, and villain pretty much can't fold. If we miss, we can fold pretty safely knowing that when villain jams, its never a bluff (because he has no fold equity) and we'll save $25.

The only time this becomes an incorrect decision is if villain is spaztarded enough to do this with AT/AQ/air.

Or, if you prefer numbers...

When we shove, it costs us $41.6 to win $100 when we hit. So the shove is basically break even. [($100*0.4) - $41.6] = -$1.6

When we call, we lose $18.75 60% of the time (when we miss), and we win $100 40% of the time when we hit. Or [(0.6*-18.75) + (0.4*$100)] = $28.75.

c9h13no3 said:

Like switch says, nothing plays this way except for KJ. We have ~40% equity against KJ, and villain is never folding after putting half his stack in. Thus, when we shove, we just put all the money in as a 40% dog.

If we call, we can put the money in on the river when we make the nuts, and villain pretty much can't fold. If we miss, we can fold pretty safely knowing that when villain jams, its never a bluff (because he has no fold equity) and we'll save $25.

The only time this becomes an incorrect decision is if villain is spaztarded enough to do this with AT/AQ/air.

Or, if you prefer numbers...

When we shove, it costs us $41.6 to win $100 when we hit. So the shove is basically break even. [($100*0.4) - $41.6] = -$1.6

When we call, we lose $18.75 60% of the time (when we miss), and we win $100 40% of the time when we hit. Or [(0.6*-18.75) + (0.4*$100)] = $28.75.

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Sweet, tks!

Very interesting hand.. Helping me with my PLO game out of interest what line did you take?

Aaronftw said:

Very interesting hand.. Helping me with my PLO game out of interest what line did you take?

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I shoved the turn, which is the incorrect move (I suspected as much, which is why I tried to make the strongest argument I could above for shoving). Fortunately, I hit the river (I love quads ), but that doesn't change it being incorrect.

bubbasbestbabe said:

Maybe my math is off but I count 21 outs. And with 24 cards left I'm definitely shoving the turn. Correct me if I'm wrong. (And I know C9 you will )

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I listed the outs I see in op (incorrectly, now that I re-read it) - could you show what I'm missing?

8 flush outs (Qh makes a fh)
1 A
2 Q's
3 4's
3 T's

Total - 17 outs?

I am not the PLO expert, but I'm sure, players like durrr or Patrick will never fold here, so do I

Easy call, you have way too many outs to fold and there is no point is shoving into the nuts. Hope that player is bad and will pay you if you improve on the river