re: Poker & $50 PL O 6-max: PLO newb, top set/nut fd against likely turned straight
Originally Posted by roundcat
Just call the check-raise on the turn. Your equity at that point is about 40%, more than enough to call the raise, but why get more money in as a dog?
If this were NLHE and I had 40%+ equity in the pot, there are a couple of reasons I'd be thinking about getting it in:
1. I'd be less certain villain has a straight here in NLHE, so I wouldn't be convinced I'm a dog .
2. A paired board or an obvious flush could kill the river action, so I might not get paid off. Calling and hitting one of my outs would get me half of villain's stack, but not necessarily the whole stack. Shoving and hitting one of my outs will get villain's entire stack (assuming villain never folds here). Of course, shoving and missing will lose my entire stack...
3. There's dead money in the pot. Dead money can be factored into my overall equity in the pot, and offsets (to a certain extent) the times that I miss my outs and lose.
So, as cAPS says, if we have the equity correct, I guess it's a matter of figuring out whether there's enough dead money to offset the fact I'm a dog.
I went to propokertools, put in my hand and the board, and gave villain KdJd6c5c (trying to keep all my outs live ). It gave Hero 43% equity.
So, question, I only see 16 outs w 44 cards left (I listed the outs I see in op), which is only 36%? Why is the simulation giving me 43%? You guys are also seeing 40%+, what am I missing?
I've got about $41 behind at this point, the pot is $38 already - that's quite a bit of dead money, more than enough to offset 40%+ equity I think but I'm not sure if it's enough to offset 36% equity - so part of the question is how much of the $38 is considered dead money, which I don't know the answer to?
As I've said in other posts, I suck at math and go w my gut alot in these situations (as you may have guessed already, I shoved, but I'm not sure that was the correct play).