$50 NLO Full Ring: Awkward turn spot. Keep betting?

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $60.38 (120.8 bb)
BB: $59.77 (119.5 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (50 bb)
MP1: $25.37 (50.7 bb)
MP2: $120.30 (240.6 bb)
MP3: $20 (40 bb)
CO: $52.63 (105.3 bb)VPIP: 28, PFR: 21, 3B: 14, AF: 1.9, Hands: 68
Hero (BTN): $57.15 (114.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q
spade4.gif
Q
club4.gif

UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, CO calls $4

Flop: ($13.25) T
heart4.gif
Q
diamond4.gif
J
heart4.gif
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8.12, CO calls $8.12

Turn: ($29.49) 2
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero?
The preflop action suggests AK might be out there but there are other pair combo draws so is it bet or check it back.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Keep betting. Too many hands to get value from that aren't AK.

http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Qd+Jc+Ts+2d&g=he&h1=AQ%2C+KQ%2C+JJ%2C+TT%2C+KK%2C+AK&h2=QQ&s=generic
 
thatguy6793

thatguy6793

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A good strong bet should anyone on a draw fold (gives them bad pot odds) but you shouldn't fear the monsters under the bed so to speak. I really doubt someone with a A-10 straight wouldn't make the bet there, I mean you know whatever happens you likely won if you have that hand, but I think you're safe betting on the off chance they do have the AK or even a flush or low end straight. A lot of times these hands have a lot more bluffs in them because they know people will fold against the risk of a very strong hand and it seems like he isn't playing that tight. Would be interested to know the actual outcome of this hand though.
 
froggeedogs

froggeedogs

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keep betting for sure, make them pay if they are chasing and you have a few outs even then if the board pairs.
 
M

MrGreen13

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Keep betting the board is so charged of draws so we have to bet for values as protection.

Regards!
 
John A

John A

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Bet the flop larger so you can shove the turn easy. Avoid these awkward spots by planning your bet sizing a little better. :)

If it wasn't this texture, we'd like smaller flop and turn bets right?
 
B

braveslice

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Any hints how to define flop bet size so that turn is shove?

I made a quite long try and found only too complicated equations to be usable on the table.
 
C

clayvision

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I dont see how you think this is an awkward spot, pretty much any Pair + Flush/OESD type hand is definitely going to continue and you are ahead of everything except K9s (if he even has that) and AK I would call any shove by your opponent as well considering its likely he could be overvaluing a hand or simply shoving worse
 
Kurtimus

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Well, he could have ace king, though I think some people will 4 bet that. Lets say he flats a 3 bet with AK, so thats 16 combos.

He could also have TT (3 combos), JJ (3 combos), AQ (4 combos), maybe QJ (3 combos), and possibly some other stuff that I think we get value from. Plus draws but I can't see suits on my App with this formatting for some reason.

I think we definitely keep betting here for value, we have to think we're generally ahead of his range here.
 
B

braveslice

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In general we are ahead obviously, but if he shoves when we bet? If he calls, what we do on the river. This might be those whatever spots.
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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hand result

Sorry for the late reply I was ill for nearly the whole of last month

Turn was checked through he bet $14 on the river and I called.

He would have called pretty much any reasonable turn bet with that holding, so I don't think the outcome of the hand would of changed however I played the turn.
In hindsight a turn bet looks to have been better to extract value on most occasions.
My problem was I had played a hand similar just prior where I had AK and the flop was QJT. Monsters under the bed syndrome.

John. Thinking about trying to set up a turn shove it would have to be full pot cbet to set up a near full pot turn shove and I very rarely do this with my value sizing as its going to fold out everything other than sets or made straights.
I'm never trying to set this up for a turn shove even if I had the nuts.
 

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