$50 NLHE Heads-up: so i wanna call a triple barrel with a pair of 3's...
deep stacked game.
ive been at the table for a while waiting on someone to join, and this avg reg who i have enough history with comes, and ive pushed him around pretty badly in the 40 or so hands we play, then this hand happens
i think stats are pretty irrelevant here, so im not going to include them. what i will say is that i know for sure that this guy is capable of x3 barrel bluffing
, and that his 3b range in regular games is around 8% (obv not sure about HU though)
my thoughts are as follows;
View hand 1971709
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Hero (BTN/SB): $142.52
($0.95) Hero is BTN/SB with 4
Hero raises to $1.70
, BB raises to $5.50
, Hero calls $3.80
so he 3bs big, obv has a strong hand. im honestly pretty sceptical that he does this with a monster, and even if im wrong i have sick implied odds
so i call.
9 (2 players)
BB bets $6.75
, Hero calls $6.75
perfectly invisible gutterball, calling all day. not sure if he realises, but that flop hits my 3b calling range pretty fkn hard. i think he would bet bigger to protect assuming he knows this, although he could just be betting small to keep in in weak when he has a mega huge hand.
($24.70) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $15
, Hero calls $15
i expect him to fire overs, as well as overpairs here obv, but now i have a bunch more hidden outs and stacks are still super deep... call
($54.70) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $32.75
im really sure this is a call, but its just so sick. 9ball repeats OTR and vil still betting? when its top pair and ive called 2 streets and its totally in my range and 100% not in his unless he has quads somehow. is he really good enough to value bet an overpair here thinking ill hero worse? dont think hes seen me do it, so i doubt it. (the incredibly obvious way to exploit me here with a hand is to check, then call any amount as i undoubtedly stick in some ridic bet with all my airballs. i know it, and im sure he knows it)
so ye, imo, it just makes absolutely no sense to bet here for vaule in the first place. then look at the sizing. if he has an overpair and wants me to call light, why so much?
this screams bluff to me. thoughts?