$50 NLHE Heads-up: Overbet shove turn /w OESD 200bb's deep in 4-bet pot

$50 NL HE Heads-up: Overbet shove turn /w OESD 200bb's deep in 4-bet pot

Sorry, no exact HH since I'm away from my computer.

Villain is a standard ABC TAG. His preflop game is so-so with a little bit of 3-betting. He folds too many buttons, and plays too many pots OOP. Postflop, he check/calls 2nd pair type hands, v-bets top pair hands. Fairly standard stuff. I haven't 4-bet yet this session, and I think we're about 20-30 hands in.

How'd I do?

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Hero - $125
Villain - $115
Hero has the button.

Hero is dealt

Preflop
Hero raises to $1.50
Villain 3-bets to $4.50
Hero 4-bets to $12.00
Villain calls $6.50

Potsize = $24

Flop


Villain checks
Hero bets $18
Villain calls $18

Potsize = $60

Turn


Villain checks
Hero goes all in for $95

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Not sure I am a fan of the new posting format, but I guess if it gets newbies to post info in the title, its good.

Can you explain your rationale for overbetshoving the turn? What range do you put him on for flatting a 4bet OOP and then check/calling a K-Q-6 rainbow flop? How much of that range is calling $50 but folding to $95?

F Paulsson said:

Can you explain your rationale for overbetshoving the turn? What range do you put him on for flatting a 4bet OOP and then check/calling a K-Q-6 rainbow flop? How much of that range is calling $50 but folding to $95?

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I just figure most ABC tags will assume that people will bluff if it doesn't cost them their stack, but when you ship the whole thing in, you mean business. And in my experience, overbets get a lot of respect.

I fully expect him to peel me off with middle pair/weak kings/JJ/maybe AJ type hands, and I think I can fold out most of his range. I think some of those kings would certainly call for a normal 2/3 pot sized bet, and then convince themselves they're committed on the river.

4-bet flatting range: AT+, 88+, KJ+. Like I said, he calls a lot out position, and so I figure he'll keep doing that even when the pot has been 4-bet.

I think a mistake you make when you analyze hands FP is that you assume people play logically the way you play, but they don't. In fact, often if we're table selecting right, most of them don't play that way at all.

c9h13no3 said:

I just figure most ABC tags will assume that people will bluff if it doesn't cost them their stack, but when you ship the whole thing in, you mean business. And in my experience, overbets get a lot of respect.

I fully expect him to peel me off with middle pair/weak kings/JJ/maybe AJ type hands, and I think I can fold out most of his range. I think some of those kings would certainly call for a normal 2/3 pot sized bet, and then convince themselves they're committed on the river.

4-bet flatting range: AT+, 88+, KJ+. Like I said, he calls a lot out position, and so I figure he'll keep doing that even when the pot has been 4-bet.

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I think your flatting range makes sense. I'll believe you if you say he'll also peel one off with many of those hands when you bet the flop. Let's divide his range into the following categories:

1. Hands he's never folding
2. Hands he's folding to a $50 bet on the turn
3. Hands he's only folding to a turn shove

... and generally speaking, to justify your overbet you need the third category to be almost twice as big as the second one. Combinatorically.

Looking at the range you gave me, I have a really hard time achieving that. What it boils down to, basically, is that he'd have to loose enough to call a $50 bet with AJo on the turn, but at the same time tight enough to lay down AK to a $95 bet.

Can you show me ranges for category 2 and 3, as you see them?

I think a mistake you make wen you analyze hands FP is that you assume people play logically the way you play, but they don't. In fact, often if we're table selecting right, most of them don't play that way at all.

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I wasn't aware that I had analyzed anything at all in this hand, yet. Which makes this statement amusingly ironic on the one hand, and a bit worryingly confrontational on the other hand. I have to wonder why you're attacking the logical flaws of an analysis I hadn't even made yet, or why you felt the need to pre-empt whatever I was going to say.

F Paulsson said:

Looking at the range you gave me, I have a really hard time achieving that. What it boils down to, basically, is that he'd have to loose enough to call a $50 bet with AJo on the turn, but at the same time tight enough to lay down AK to a $95 bet.

Can you show me ranges for category 2 and 3, as you see them?

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I haven't done the math, but if he has to fold AK to make a $95 bet more profitable than a $50 one, then it pretty much can't be profitable (since no one is folding AK in a 4-bet pot HU obviously). So in that sense we should reserve overbets for when we want to fold out a wide range of "good hands" (like shoving a paired, straighty/flushy board with air).

At the time, my thought process didn't really include why my betsizing was good. I was just like "well, I think there's still KT, KJ, AQ in his range, and I better use all the mustard I've got to push him off of those. Plus I've got some equity if called."

I wasn't aware that I had analyzed anything at all in this hand, yet. Which makes this statement amusingly ironic on the one hand, and a bit worryingly confrontational on the other hand. I have to wonder why you're attacking the logical flaws of an analysis I hadn't even made yet, or why you felt the need to pre-empt whatever I was going to say.

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Sorry, just read too much into your response.

c9h13no3 said:

Sorry, just read too much into your response.

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Don't worry about it.

Meh, shoving turn looks so much like a draw semi-bluffing that i don't see villain ever making a mistake here. Do you ever shove made hands here?

BelgoSuisse said:

Meh, shoving turn looks so much like a draw semi-bluffing that i don't see villain ever making a mistake here.

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What I do normally doesn't matter, since I've never played this villain before and am unlikely to again. Balance is meaningless. But just so you know, I do mix up shoving made hands for value. Only other option is betting like $30, and even then I'm not a fan of having so little money behind with no fold equity on the river with such a huge amount already in the pot.

What does matter is how an ABC tag that plays too much OOP is likely to view a shove (and the math behind how often a shove has to work, but we've been over that). In my experience players treat shoves with way more respect. They think, "okay, this lag is going to 3-bet me light, and bluff raise flops for small portions of his stack, but when all the money goes in he usually has something". Now, you might be thinking on a different level, but that's just not what I think most players do in the heat of the moment.

c9h13no3 said:

In my experience players treat shoves with way more respect.

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I don't know about that...

For instance, overbet shoves look weaker than pot-sized 4bets preflop, imo. An overbet shove preflop tends to look a lot like AK, actually, so some regs will call down with pocket pairs much smaller than you'd expect. Which is why we sometimes do it with AA too, btw.