But seriously, guys, consider his range here. We have no 4bet stats for this guy, but given this guy's stats peg him as a ridiculous scared nit it's somewhat reasonable to assume it's no greater than 10% and probably more like 4-5%, which means it's literally just TT+/AKs -- a range that clearly has us behind, and that he's 4betting only because he's comfortable getting it in with. Like, even when we hold blockers AA/KK is still a good 1/4 of that range and we're flipping vs else, and if he found a hand he can 4bet he's not gonna fold it.
Given all this, are you guys honestly gonna tell me with a straight face that it's a good move to jam $46 into a $14 pot? Honestly I'd not just flat -- I'd be slightly tempted to fold flop if I don't spike an Ace. I'd actually be scared of a King since it makes him more likely to hold AA.
Regarding HUD comment: VPIP/PFR is an average of so many different situations with so many different dynamics it's only useful as a way to get a quick and dirty, stereotyped view of somebody's style of play and not really as a way to get specific reads. It has basically no use HU because IP and OOP dynamics are so far apart that the average of the two tels you jack shit -- you need to actually know Villain's IP steal/OOP defend stats separately (for instance, as a standard I tend to defend about 60% of
hands vs minraise and 25% vs 3x, but I open about 80% of buttons -- my general HU VPIP/PFR can't tell you that though, because it just says my VPIP/PFR is 70/63).
Besides, why are we even
considering risking our stack in a spot that's slightly over breakeven at the best of times when we're playing a goldmine? With somebody who defends that tight it's immediately profitable to just minraise every button and fold to any aggression.
, A
