$50 NLHE Heads-up: 3-handed: 88 facing 3-bet pre and action on all streets

ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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Ongame Network, the HH function isn't working so from memory:

HUD isn't working but villain is a semi-competent but spewy reg who i've played a lot with 3-handed and 6-handed, plays about 32/28 and 3-bets about 20% of his raising range from memory, calculated to be roughly 66+, A4s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+ and 9Ts+. 3-handed, it could be even wider as these stats are for both 3- and 6-max. Flop c-bets around 75%, can't remember other c-bet stats for turn and river.
3-handed cash game, 50NL.
I am BTN ($50)
Villain is SB ($50)
BB is irrelevant ($50)
Blinds post.

Hero (BTN) [8h] [8d] raises to $1.25

Villain (SB) 3-bets to $3

BB folds

I call. (Estimated 51.19% vs. his 3-bet range)


***FLOP*** (Pot = $6.50)
[9d] [7d] [3s]

Villain donks for $4, I call. (Here we have ~60% vs his whole range)

***TURN*** ($14.50)
[2h]

Villain leads for $7, I call. (If I'm good on the flop I certainly am now: ~65% vs whole range)

***RIVER*** ($28.50)
[Ks]

Villain bets $16, I ??????


This is tricky for a few reasons. Our equity vs his whole perceived range is now only 53%. We easily have the odds to call if he's 3-barrelling his entire 3-betting range. AK in particular is a hand that probably fires 3-barrels at this board in order to get me to fold the type of hand I have. I can probably guess his 3-barrell range contains AA-77, AK-A9, KQ, K9, QJ, QT, TJ, 9T and not much else. Vs. this range we have 54%. Is this an insta-call? Maybe a fold somewhere? I was in check/call mode as I know he is capable of firing 3-barrels with a semi-bluff with 2 overs and a gutshot or something similar.
 
Stu_Ungar

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I call. (Estimated 51.19% vs. his 3-bet range)

Thats where you went wrong.

You have a 1% edge against his total range assuming you play every street flawlessly. As soon as you post "hero???" you dont have the skill edge required to play a 1% edge over 3 streets.. few people do.. Phil Ivey could.. maybe

You know he is going to keep betting and so you know you will likely face a decision on each street.

With such a small edge, the aggressive player is going to win more often than the passive player. The problem with calling with a hand like 88 against an agressive player is even when you are making good decisions, he will still outdraw you very often.. meaning your decisions have to be flawless.

4bet or fold preflop.

From memory I saw a video a while ago that said you needed a 65-70% preflop edge to really use a call down stratagy.. the idea being that you had a hand strong enough that yiou never really needed to raise to fold out dead equity and so you could just let a player keep barrelling into you over multiple streets. (they made a few assumptions and then showed this mathematically)
 
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Stu_Ungar

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This is tricky for a few reasons. Our equity vs his whole perceived range is now only 53%. We easily have the odds to call if he's 3-barrelling his entire 3-betting range. AK in particular is a hand that probably fires 3-barrels at this board in order to get me to fold the type of hand I have. I can probably guess his 3-barrell range contains AA-77, AK-A9, KQ, K9, QJ, QT, TJ, 9T and not much else. Vs. this range we have 54%. Is this an insta-call? Maybe a fold somewhere? I was in check/call mode as I know he is capable of firing 3-barrels with a semi-bluff with 2 overs and a gutshot or something similar.

If he bets 100% of his range on every street then its a call.

Have you ever seen him check? if so he dosent bet 100%

TBH I dont think you could have enough hands on someone at 50NL to say he bets 100% on every street because peoples calling ranges on flop and turn in 3bet pots are so strong that he would likely be broke by now.
 
ben_rhyno

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If he bets 100% of his range on every street then its a call.

Have you ever seen him check? if so he dosent bet 100%

TBH I dont think you could have enough hands on someone at 50NL to say he bets 100% on every street because peoples calling ranges on flop and turn in 3bet pots are so strong that he would likely be broke by now.
Some really good points in these 2 posts so thanks a lot. So 4-betting pre is the optimal line? As played is the river a call to you?
 
c9h13no3

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4-bet pre, call it off. Fistpump.
 
ben_rhyno

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Cheers C9, this is the consensus on 2p2 aswell.
 
ben_rhyno

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The only thing that bothers me is stacking off pre for 100bb with 88. He 3-bets to 12bb but I don't think he's calling 88 more bb's with less than 88
 
Stu_Ungar

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The only thing that bothers me is stacking off pre for 100bb with 88. He 3-bets to 12bb but I don't think he's calling 88 more bb's with less than 88

Great, he will have to stop 3betting you 20% if he has to keep folding to your 4bets.
 
c9h13no3

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The only thing that bothers me is stacking off pre for 100bb with 88. He 3-bets to 12bb but I don't think he's calling 88 more bb's with less than 88
Like Stu implied, the many many many many many times he folds and donates you 12bb's will more than make up for the times that you get a stack in bad.

I keep posting a 4-bet chart, and I'm at work so I'm not gonna repost it now. But if you do a quick search, you should be able to find one I've posted in the past.
 
ben_rhyno

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Thanks guys, c9, is it in the thread: Moving beyond the hand chart: 3-betting and 4-betting?
 
c9h13no3

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Opponent's 3-bet Percentage Required to 4-bet/call off preflop for 100bb's.
* KK+: Good against any range
* QQ: vs 3% or higher
* JJ: vs 6.5% or higher
* TT: vs 8.5% or higher
* 99: vs 10.5% or higher
* 88: vs 12.5% or higher
* 77: vs 14% or higher
* AKs: vs 3% or higher
* AQs: vs 8% or higher
* AJs: vs 13% or higher
* AKo: vs 5% or higher
* AQo: vs 9% or higher
 
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