$50 NLHE Full Ring: What's he thinking?

NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
$50 NL HE Full Ring: What's he thinking?

For those of you that don't know, sometimes I like to edit the hand history to look at a hand from my opponent's view, usually because I'm confused by the way my opponent played.

So I'm the villain, on the button, in this hand.

UTG is pretty tight but I haven't been at this table long. I flat on the button. By end of the turn I'm no longer sure what he has, but I'm calling most river bets.


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($52.80)
CO ($39.95)
Button ($45.50)
SB ($20.20)
BB ($9.30)
Hero (UTG) ($50.75)
MP1 ($74.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q
spade.gif
, A
spade.gif

Hero bets $2, 3 folds, Button calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 5
heart.gif
, J
club.gif
, A
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10.75) 6
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($22.75) K
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, Button calls $7.50

Total pot: $37.75 | Rake: $1.80
 
PattyR

PattyR

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 6, 2009
Total posts
7,111
Chips
0
maybe he thought he was holding the Q of hearts??? lol misread maybe
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
'cept his Q is black. The only thing I understand is the blocking bet on the river, but that's not enough to stop even a single weak heart, let alone say AJ on the flop. The check/call with top pair on a two tone flop doesn't make much sense unless he reads me as hyperaggressive postflop, which I can be, but I don't have many hands on him so he wouldn't have many on me.

The only thing he beats at the river is something like AT with no hearts.

Just someone who can't give up on a paired Ace, I guess.
 
S93

S93

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Total posts
6,154
Chips
0
Sigh, wrote along post thinking he had triple barelled.


Only thing i can think of is that he is hoping your folding some sets,AT+ and some 2 pairs along with some tiny hearts(not that there are many low hearts in your range) but his bet size is pretty ridic if thats is his plan since he only needs to have a small bluff range here so u can call profitably with most of your range.

But honestly this hand plays out so strange every street that he is probably just spazing, c/c flop and turn on this board with out alot of reads/stats/dynamic between the two of you just doesnt make much sense to me.

if he thinks he can get you to fold to a alot of river bets here i think he has to make it like 14$ min since anything less then that and we can hero call with a tone of hands imo.
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
Just looked at his aggression factor, 1.0 with a frequency of 29. Small sample, but not totally passive either.

Best I can figure is he just made a mistake on the flop, and then couldn't give up. But better to bet the turn when the 3 flush fills, bluffing the flush, or as you say, bet bigger on the river representing AQ with Q of hearts, or maybe a pair of Qs with the Q of hearts that had played wa/wb even though the flop is drawy.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Villain isn't thinking. That's the problem. But if he bet like $14, it woulda been okay.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
He played this soooooooo bad!

C/C TP OOP lol , The river donk is awful as it isnt going to fold out a weaker heart and it doesnt look like a value bet size. Probs just a spaz out "I have AQ and dont want to lose this hand but dont want to bet a proper bluff amount so I will bet small"
 
Sysvr4

Sysvr4

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 17, 2009
Total posts
277
Chips
0
This villain exemplifies something I've been saying for a while about most of online villains: He played every street wrong except pre-flop.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
I've seen this before. It's some kind of a "ooh, top pair, I'm trapping! ... uh oh, a third heart... Well, no point in betting now, is there? Traparooo! CRAP a fourth heart, er.. uh...dammiiiiiiiiiiit... BET BET BET!"
 
beechleaf

beechleaf

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 29, 2007
Total posts
130
Chips
0
looks like a semi bluff with top pair in hopes you will lay it down less you have a big heart mabey thinking he wants you too think he flushed with the ace
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
I've seen this before. It's some kind of a "ooh, top pair, I'm trapping! ... uh oh, a third heart... Well, no point in betting now, is there? Traparooo! CRAP a fourth heart, er.. uh...dammiiiiiiiiiiit... BET BET BET!"

Seen it, from personal experience, Fredrik? :)

I've probably done it to myself as well.



I guess the other part of the question would be, what range of hands makes sense for me?

The most likely looks like a set of 5s (JJ I probably 3 bet preflop here most of the time to not have to worry about overcards on the flop) or AJs of another suit, though there's only two of those remaining. Then there's suited heart connectors.

AQs or an AK are possible too as I might flat those in position. Air is a possibility up until the river call, but unlikely against someone that I don't have much of a read on and at full ring. AT almost always fold preflop here.


Any comments/critiques of this range? Too tight, too loose preflop? Or postflop?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
Seen it, from personal experience, Fredrik? :)
Heh, no actually, I don't think I've ever done this. But I played a huge chunk of poker before diving into NL, so I never had the chance to be that guy - I got that particular suckiness out of the way at the limit hold'em tables. :)


I guess the other part of the question would be, what range of hands makes sense for me?
I can tell you my range:

KhJh, QhTh, 8h7h+, 55, 66, JJ, AJ, AQ.

There are no bluffs in my range after the turn, because I don't think this turn card is a good second barrel card for almost any of my bluff range once I get check/called on the flop. If I could have KQo and one of them was a heart, I might fire again, but KQo is not a hand I'm crazy about playing versus an EP raise. And even KQo with a heart in it just got there, so no, no bluffs left.

The most likely looks like a set of 5s (JJ I probably 3 bet preflop here most of the time to not have to worry about overcards on the flop) or AJs of another suit, though there's only two of those remaining. Then there's suited heart connectors.
I was talking about this in some other thread, but JJ isn't a likely 3-bet for me in position against most players - only against people against whom I'm happy to get it in if I get re-raised. This could be a function of the stakes I play though; if you have no qualms about folding JJ to a 4bet because they don't 4b-bluff often (or at all), and/or you expect to get your 3bet to get called out of position by worse often, then 3-betting is probably a good play. So take my line there with a grain of salt.

AQs or an AK are possible too as I might flat those in position. Air is a possibility up until the river call, but unlikely against someone that I don't have much of a read on and at full ring. AT almost always fold preflop here.

Any comments/critiques of this range? Too tight, too loose preflop? Or postflop?

Like I said, I don't think there should be much - if any - air in your range by the river. In a way that kinda sucks because game theoretically you always want to have balanced ranges, but I just don't see what air you profitably bet the flop and turn with that didn't suddenly become a real hand by the river. I guess C9 might bet/bet/shove 2s2c here. :D
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
I can tell you my range:

KhJh, QhTh, 8h7h+, 55, 66, JJ, AJ, AQ.

I'm curious about the hearts part of your range here. I tend to throw away KJs/QTs preflop because of the combination of gap plus potential domination, but I know a some players don't worry too much about being one gapped, feeling that they play almost as well as non-gapped. What's your take on that?

I was also going to ask about 7h6h/6h5h but then I realized that might indicate a fixed deck in this hand. :p
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
I'm curious about the hearts part of your range here. I tend to throw away KJs/QTs preflop because of the combination of gap plus potential domination, but I know a some players don't worry too much about being one gapped, feeling that they play almost as well as non-gapped. What's your take on that?

I was also going to ask about 7h6h/6h5h but then I realized that might indicate a fixed deck in this hand. :p

KJs and QTs are OK to play on the button, I think. The typical concerns are, as you say, domination and the lesser value of one-gappers, but let's start with domination:

Domination really is not a huge concern. Its importance is bloated by the fact that a lot of people who comment on domination do so in a tournament setting - where domination really is a problem. It's really unfortunate to get it in with AJ preflop against AK. But to see a flop with a dominated hand isn't that bad - the risk of you flopping a king with KJs when your opponent has AK is the same as for flopping a set: One time out of 12. And unless you're exceptionally bad at pot control and hand reading postflop, you really shouldn't lose your stack very often when that happens. I'm not saying it's not a problem, I'm just saying that the threat of domination in a full-stacked cash game is nowhere near as bad as some might make it sound.

And about the one-gappedness: I'm not a fan of playing 86s on the button versus most opponents. The value that you have in QTs is the fact that they're high cards in combination with being suited (semi)connectors. You can beat a lot of your opponent's range by just flopping a pair, something that is harder for a hand like 53s to do.

Also, broadway suited connectors are good for another reason: Bluff value and implied odds. They typically outdo their smaller brothers in this area because your equity versus your opponent's range on really good flops for you to bluff is much higher. I mean, a good flop to bluff is a flop with some high card on it, right, and preferably two high cards? Well, if there are two high cards on the flop, you have QTs, there's no way you don't have at least a gutshot straight draw. That extra 20% (or whatever it comes out to) of equity is most certainly nothing to sneeze at.

That said, we can't choose our cards, so if you can find an argument for 75s being profitable OTB, then play it, along with QTs. I don't, though.

About the small suited connectors: I don't typically play those either unless I expect to have pretty good implied odds on average. The problem with small suited connectors is that it's a little bit difficult to get paid off with them; when you flop a straight with 65s, it's not trivial to get a typical opponent to stack off, even at the smaller stakes. Even if he pays you off with QQ+, he's not going to have that a majority of the time, and people tend to get very, very careful about aggression on rag flops, because they know that everyone plays every pair in position so they start thinking "set!" as soon as someone raises them on a flop like 7-4-3. That's not to say that they're not going to pay you off with aces, but think twice if you expect them to play for stacks with 88.

Similarly, and perhaps counter-intuitively, it's also harder to pull off successful semibluffs with hands like 65s. If you flop 7-4-2, your opponent is going to be scared of a set, but that doesn't mean he'll snap-fold. Small suited connectors can be in that unprofitable DMZ between "high implied odds" and "easy to bluff with."
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
Thanks Fredrik. I fee like I'm taking a class and asked the grad student that's teaching the lab portion a question.

One of the things that I think I overlook too is the overcard value of hands like KJ/QT on a low flop, tainted though they may be, but they're useful if you happen to be up against 99. Or they can give you showdown value when you float the flop and pair the turn, better than if you float with 87s and pair the 7 on the turn.

And in position you get a much better opportunity to control the pot size so domination may not be as difficult to manage.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Total posts
5,799
Awards
1
Chips
1
Thanks Fredrik. I fee like I'm taking a class and asked the grad student that's teaching the lab portion a question.

One of the things that I think I overlook too is the overcard value of hands like KJ/QT on a low flop, tainted though they may be, but they're useful if you happen to be up against 99. Or they can give you showdown value when you float the flop and pair the turn, better than if you float with 87s and pair the 7 on the turn.

Yeah, overcard equity is not great, but every little bit helps. Since virtually all of the hands in NLHE hover around 0EV (only a very small percentage of hands are dramatically +EV, and that's JJ+), the difference between "profitable" and "not profitable" can hinge on something as seemingly trivial as overcard equity versus half of your opponent's range.

And in position you get a much better opportunity to control the pot size so domination may not be as difficult to manage.

If I was grading this lab, I would just have passed you. :)
 
B

brett987

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 18, 2008
Total posts
71
Chips
0
just a dumb bet by an amateur trying to win the pot..he thought he could bet you off of it and he was wrong..dont try to do that..70% of the time they arent bluffing
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
just a dumb bet by an amateur trying to win the pot..he thought he could bet you off of it and he was wrong..dont try to do that..70% of the time they arent bluffing

wat?

with the bet sizing, hero only needs to fold 20% of better hands to make his bet profitable. so 30% of folds would make his play very good.
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2009
Total posts
917
Chips
0
And about the one-gappedness: I'm not a fan of playing 86s on the button versus most opponents. The value that you have in QTs is the fact that they're high cards in combination with being suited (semi)connectors. You can beat a lot of your opponent's range by just flopping a pair, something that is harder for a hand like 53s to do.

I agree with you that you're better off with two high cards in a situation where you're going to be playing for a small pot, flopping a pair of queens is a lot more useful than a pair of fives but if you are expecting a big pot, or just taking the excuse to play more hands from the button then it's worth knowing that suited gappers are only about 2% less likely than suited connectors to flop a big hand (two pair or better, including straights, flushes and big draws) which is way ahead of most other hands, plus their implied odds are better.
 
Top