$50 NLHE Full Ring: Villian River shove with straight

$50 NL HE Full Ring: Villian River shove with straight

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/12/1.7

Line Checks please do I fire on the turn?
Also what is our line here facing this raise.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+1: $63.30 (126.6 bb)
MP1: $77.50 (155 bb)
MP2: $50 (100 bb)
MP3: $51.25 (102.5 bb)
CO: $64.50 (129 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $50 (100 bb)
BB: $50.50 (101 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 9:club: J:club:
6 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3) Q:club: Q:heart: T:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7) K:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

River: ($16) 7:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $9, BB raises to $42.50 and is all-in, Hero ??
[/spoil]

holy muth of sick spots

how large is villains sample size firstly?

thought I put it on there, shite, its only 27 hands sorry guys.

Yeah I was like ffs another sick spot!!!!

sigh im having a tough time thinking of a range to put him on because i really don't know how often some of his hands get it in on the river instead of the turn.

We all know he has at least a queen here, and there aren't that many queens you beat. I think i fold just purely because i think a,q/q,j/q,9 get it in on the turn instead of the river. But it's pretty icky, and i can see arguements for a call since its bvb. I think he has you on the turn however when he is flat calling instead of getting random queens in on a scary board

This should never be less than AJ. That, and i can't see any sane person slowplaying a naked Q, then all of a sudden thinking it is the stone cold nuts on the river. Qx should raise flop or turn and shouldn't shove river. And you'd have to be super retarded to try and bluff this board.

If villain is a total spaz then you can call but otherwise this is a pretty easy fold.

remember this is bvb though feitr, where people will slowplay till the river so as the 'don't lose their customer'. You can honestly see villain shoving Aces here if he is bad. Remember its an unknown aswell so we have no idea if hes spewy or a solid player

Guys who are bad enough to slowplay this to the river will probably do something like min raise the river instead of shoving. And 27 hands is enough to get some idea of how good/bad villain is. Call is fine vs a bad villain but anybody remotely competent/not really aggro should never do this with Qx or anything we beat.

I agree with feitr here. This is AJ or better too often to make the call profitable against all but the worst villians, even bvb.

Would villians not re raise preflop with AJ or better though which was my thinking on the river?

Ye im not saying we should call, but there are arguements for calling, and if you run it throuigh pokerstove against q9+,TT,KK,AJ. It actually comes out at like 40% equity for us, making it so we should call, thats why its a lot closer than we think. But i still vote for fold.

I know of very few people who 3bet a,j bvb at 50nl through my experiences.