$50 NLHE Full Ring: Unknown villian Donks pot when I hit TPTK

Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
full tilt poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

CO: $89.55
BTN: $65.80
SB: $53.90
BB: $50.00
UTG: $18.70
UTG+1: $49.50
UTG+2: $52.30
MP1: $58.40
Hero (MP2): $82.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with K
heart.gif
A
diamond.gif

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 4
diamond.gif
T
spade.gif
6
heart.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 calls $3

Turn: ($11.75) K
diamond.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11.75, Hero

No reads, this is his second hand.

I assume he is loose passive as he limp calls preflop.

Is his range wide enough to be value betting weaker kings?

My feeling is that he either hit KT or had a set on the flop.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Well if this is true:
My feeling is that he either hit KT or had a set on the flop.
Fold!

I doubt you're going to be good here very often considering his limp/call pre, call cbet, pot turn line. I thank him for saving me money (in my head only) and fold.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
Meh. I hate folding. Also, passive preflop and passive postflop are often completely different things.

My default play vs an unknown would be to turn into a calling station so that villain is not an unknown anymore and i can make a note.
 
F

fx20736

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Total posts
2,728
Chips
0
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

CO: $89.55
BTN: $65.80
SB: $53.90
BB: $50.00
UTG: $18.70
UTG+1: $49.50
UTG+2: $52.30
MP1: $58.40
Hero (MP2): $82.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with K
heart.gif
A
diamond.gif

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 4
diamond.gif
T
spade.gif
6
heart.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 calls $3

Turn: ($11.75) K
diamond.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11.75, Hero

No reads, this is his second hand.

I assume he is loose passive as he limp calls preflop.

Is his range wide enough to be value betting weaker kings?

My feeling is that he either hit KT or had a set on the flop.

IMO, which may be stupid a pot sized bet usually means hand protection rather than a strict value bet. So IF he didn't want to see any more diamonds I think his range here might be:

AA
KK
AK
TT
66
44
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Well if this is true:

Fold!

I doubt you're going to be good here very often considering his limp/call pre, call cbet, pot turn line. I thank him for saving me money (in my head only) and fold.

MY feeling is that he dosent bet many draws here.

There is a bet sizing tell.

Also XC flop and then Bet turn is a very rare line for him to take. When he does this his most likely river action is to bet so I cant call here looking to re-evaluate the river, I know now that he will bet at least 50% of rivers so I risk calling here to fold the best hand on the river (if it is the best hand). i.e. if he does decide to bet KJ on the river, I fold anyway.

So its a case of get it in now or fold.. but I just dont see what I beat.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Meh. I hate folding. Also, passive preflop and passive postflop are often completely different things.

My default play vs an unknown would be to turn into a calling station so that villain is not an unknown anymore and i can make a note.

Thats it, if I call here I cant fold .. but do I call?
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
IMO, which may be stupid a pot sized bet usually means hand protection rather than a strict value bet. So IF he didn't want to see any more diamonds I think his range here might be:

AA
KK
AK
TT
66
44

I really wouldnt put him on AA or KK and Ak is possible but I dont want to play a big pot for a chop.

I do think he is likely protecting against the diamonds.
 
F

fx20736

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Total posts
2,728
Chips
0
I really wouldnt put him on AA or KK and Ak is possible but I dont want to play a big pot for a chop.

I do think he is likely protecting against the diamonds.

I wouldn't think AA & KK were likely but had to consider them as some players do like trap with these. If he is protecting against diamonds and you discount AA & KK then that leaves

AK
TT
66
44

I'm at work so I don't have access to Pokerstove but what is your equity against that range?
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
I wouldn't think AA & KK were likely but had to consider them as some players do like trap with these. If he is protecting against diamonds and you discount AA & KK then that leaves

AK
TT
66
44

I'm at work so I don't have access to Pokerstove but what is your equity against that range?

Zero.

It dosent matter that he could have AK. Im basically risking my entire stack just to get back half of whats in the pot now... that never compensates the times he has sets.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
I'm at work so I don't have access to Pokerstove but what is your equity against that range?

Terrible.

The only reason to call is if we think he can have air, worse K and/or draws in his range. The truth is, we don't have any f..ing clue, but if we call twice, we'll know what for he uses this strange line, while if we fold we'll never know. So I call. Also, I'm a fish.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
And FWIW, I do expect to see quite a lot of air here.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Total posts
3,904
Chips
0
I wouldn't think AA & KK were likely but had to consider them as some players do like trap with these. If he is protecting against diamonds and you discount AA & KK then that leaves

AK
TT
66
44

I'm at work so I don't have access to Pokerstove but what is your equity against that range?

May wanna check out this link for equity calculations: www.propokertools.com
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Terrible.

The only reason to call is if we think he can have air, worse K and/or draws in his range. The truth is, we don't have any f..ing clue, but if we call twice, we'll know what for he uses this strange line, while if we fold we'll never know. So I call. Also, I'm a fish.

I love being a station but I really don't think we need to call to know that we're beat here way too often to make calling good. I will call occasionally in -EV spots for a little info but here I think the cost of that info is going to be extremely high.

Also lol at a range that's only sets/AK. He'll certainly have a couple hands that we're ahead of in his range just not enough to make calling correct imo.
 
F

fx20736

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Total posts
2,728
Chips
0
Zero.

It dosent matter that he could have AK. Im basically risking my entire stack just to get back half of whats in the pot now... that never compensates the times he has sets.

Yeah, I agree with that. Folding is clearly the best option. I suppose in theory he could be drawing here but how many reasonable drawing hands does he have here?

QdJd
QdTd
Qd9d
JdTd
8d7d
7d5d

If you add these to Stove what does that do for your equity?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
I would estimate our equity somewhere around 35-40% (I added 8 combos to the sets AK range even though I don't really think AK should be in there considering the preflop action which hurts or equity).

If he were all in on the turn it's a definite call but I just think the $$ left behind leave us in a really bad spot on the river where we think we're getting odds to call again but generally if he bets again we're crushed.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Where hole cards are known

25 02 2011 0002

Where hole cards are unknown

25 02 2011 0000

OK well we can eliminate calling to re-evaluate!
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
The problem is its such a rare line for him to take.

Out of over 1million hands this only shows up about 150 times and only about 1/3 of those get to SD.

The game changer is hitting TP on the turn because if TP was hot on the flop, this is a much easier range to estimate.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
@ Belgio

Why do you say he shows up with air a lot?

Out of 1 milion hands I can only find 150 instances of a player with a vpip between 20 and 40 and a PRF of under 10 taking this line.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Maybe you do but you never find out because you fold so much? :D

Na.. they are usually weak-tight or calling stations. Its quite rare to find players who bluff often enough to make bluff catching profitable.

There are a few but they are very rare.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
Na.. they are usually weak-tight or calling stations. Its quite rare to find players who bluff often enough to make bluff catching profitable.

There are a few but they are very rare.

Move up, imo. Maniacs prefer 100 or 200nl to your 50nl nitfest.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Move up, imo. Maniacs prefer 100 or 200nl to your 50nl nitfest.

I actually think thats true.

I think after 50NL people try and exploit FE a lot more than they do below 50NL.

Which I suppose ties in with me saying that the tables are full of nits and calling stations. No point in trying to exploit FE when people dont like to pust the fold button.
 
vanquish

vanquish

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 26, 2007
Total posts
12,000
Chips
0
folding the turn seems ridiculous to me but most of my reasoning has pretty much been stated by belgo
 
Top