$50 NLHE Full Ring: TT low rainbow flop how many barrels?

BLieve

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$50 NL HE Full Ring: TT low rainbow flop how many barrels?

I am in MP with TT, a 16/4 thru 138 hands call a pot bet of $1.75. My thinking is outlined in brown.

Stage #1844421669: Holdem No Limit $0.50 - 2010-01-09 18:36:20 (ET)
Table: CHARLOTTE (real money) Seat #9 is the dealer
Seat 9 - BTTHYWRSUITED ($9.48 in chips)
Seat 1 - ISILDURT111 ($50.27 in chips)
Seat 2 - URS IS MINE ($8.75 in chips)
Seat 3 - FERGIE72 ($24 in chips)
Seat 4 - RAIDERP ($10.25 in chips)
Seat 5 - BLIEVE ($56 in chips)
Seat 6 - RWXIANG ($11.35 in chips)
Seat 7 - CXLW ($24.40 in chips)
Seat 8 - SKETCHPADPOET ($7.70 in chips)
ISILDURT111 - Posts small blind $0.25
URS IS MINE - Posts big blind $0.50
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to BLIEVE [10s 10d]
FERGIE72 - Folds
RAIDERP - Folds
BLIEVE - Raises $1.75 to $1.75
RWXIANG - Folds
CXLW - Calls $1.75
16/4 could be any pair and any suited broadway +
SKETCHPADPOET - Folds
BTTHYWRSUITED - Folds
ISILDURT111 - Folds
URS IS MINE - Folds
*** FLOP *** [8s 6c 2d]
Rainbow flop my best chance is to take it down here.
BLIEVE - Bets $3
CXLW - Calls $3
Oh boy...slowplay or floating with overcards?
*** TURN *** [8s 6c 2d] [6d]
This next bet should take care of him. (Agree or disagree with this 2nd barrel?)
BLIEVE - Bets $7.50
CXLW - Calls $7.50
Oh I am so screwed...
*** RIVER *** [8s 6c 2d 6d] [Kc]
BLIEVE - If I check the pot is his, I am either betting or folding. Is there enough equity here to bet?
 
Double-A

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I have zero experience at $50 NLHE so I'm interested in what others have to say.

I think we can check that turn. I have some muddled thinking as to why but mostly small hand/small pot. We've got a pair, great. But, I can't see many draws that villain would be on and can't think of many hands that we beat that would call a bet.

As played, I think our options on the river are more than bet or check/fold. Mainly because he only has $12 or so left and the pots around $25. I'd be willing to check/call hoping to induce a bluff. This might also get 99, 77, or 55 to bet. He might check QQ or JJ behind now that a king showed up.
 
trewtrew

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on each street (besides the river) u are betting for value. Just because an overcard hits the river it doesnt mean u are beat. From the way this hand was played i think u have two options on the river. Make a small blocking/value bet on the river or check to induce a bluff from him. Don't see how u are beat unless ur up against a jerk who would call u down with KQ or KJ in this spot.
 
BLieve

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on each street (besides the river) u are betting for value. Just because an overcard hits the river it doesnt mean u are beat. From the way this hand was played i think u have two options on the river. Make a small blocking/value bet on the river or check to induce a bluff from him. Don't see how u are beat unless ur up against a jerk who would call u down with KQ or KJ in this spot.

There was about $25 in the pot and he only had $10-12 left if I remember correctly so any bet would have put him all in. In position I would have easily check checked it but if I check he is sure to bet (90%) and I if I even think about calling I was much better making the bet myself since I lose fold equity by calling his bet.
 
BLieve

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I have zero experience at $50 NLHE so I'm interested in what others have to say.

I think we can check that turn. I have some muddled thinking as to why but mostly small hand/small pot. We've got a pair, great. But, I can't see many draws that villain would be on and can't think of many hands that we beat that would call a bet.

As played, I think our options on the river are more than bet or check/fold. Mainly because he only has $12 or so left and the pots around $25. I'd be willing to check/call hoping to induce a bluff. This might also get 99, 77, or 55 to bet. He might check QQ or JJ behind now that a king showed up.

After the flop call I put villain on either a set, a medium pair lower than my TT or floating with AK maybe KQ or AJ. After the turn I think the float is less likely unless his overcards are both diamonds. I really had no clue what he could be on at this point and this is my biggest concern. In situations like these, do I bet or not?
 
H

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I would go with the block/value bet... You have fold equity and you can just as easily end the betting if he doesn't have you beat too bad.
 
Double-A

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I really had no clue what he could be on at this point and this is my biggest concern. In situations like these, do I bet or not?

In this specific hand I would check call the river. Mostly because villains stack is so small... I'd have to have a really good reason to fold getting 3-1.

In general, when I get "lost" in a hand I tend to check/fold. But, I only have experience up through $25 NL online. At those limits, aggression tends to be from players who have something and not good/tricky players "making a move". When I get confused, I want out of the pot.
 
F Paulsson

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In situations like these, do I bet or not?

Allow me to rephrase your conundrum for you:

On the turn, you're feeling pretty certain that your hand is in one of three categories: Crushed (by a set or somewhat unlikely JJ+), crushing (versus a smaller pair) or in decent shape versus overcards. You're out of position. Is there a reason to bet?

Yes there is: For value. You can bet/fold the turn if you think villain is very unlikely to raise with worse than what you have. Combinatorically, your opponent's range is of course heavily weighted towards hands that you beat, and unless you have reason to believe he's floating the flop with the intention of bluffing the turn if checked to, betting makes the most sense - but only if you beat his calling range.

How do we accomplish this? By betting small. You'll induce loose calls from small pocket pairs that feel they're getting a good price, and you'll induce folds from overcards that probably shouldn't fold if they knew what you had. It doesn't take much for him to fold ~15% equity with a hand like QJ and out of position that's not a bad proposition for you. So bet less than the $7.50; probably more like halfpot or even just $4. If you get raised, you lose a smaller amount than with your bet size, and you should get called more often by weaker hands than with your larger bet size.

So, in my mind, this is not a question of whether or not to bet, it's a question of how much to bet. And I vote "small."
 
F Paulsson

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By the way, I don't think very many opponents fold 77 or 99 to your turn bet. That's 12 combos right there that you can compare to the 7 combos of flopped sets. Given that he didn't raise the turn, you have to discount sets at least a little bit more than even that, and I don't think "I am so screwed" is a correct estimate of your situation on the river. :)

... and that's not accounting for the fact that I think you're underestimating his preflop range. The range you listed is only 9% wide, and it looks like he'll look at the flop with almost twice that. All pairs and quite a few more suited connectors than just the broadway ones, I'd say, which makes some 8x hands pretty likely.

As played, I don't know if I bet/fold the river or check/call, but probably lean towards betting small versus what seems to be a very passive opponent. Once he calls the turn, there aren't many kings in his range so you can probably safely valuebet versus 77, 99, 8x and maybe even smaller pairs.
 
BelgoSuisse

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I agree with FP about early streets. I don't think he read stack sizes before considering a bet/fold as a possible play on the river.

As played, there is no way in hell we can ever fold this considering that if we check and villain shoves we'll be offered 4:1 on our call and we're certainly good against 25% of villain's range here. Considering the flop wasn't super draw heavy, I prefer betting this river instead of check/calling. The only possible bet size is obviously shoving here.
 
F Paulsson

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Engh, I could have sworn we were 100 deep. I thought Isildur was villain for some reason.
 
Double-A

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Considering the flop wasn't super draw heavy, I prefer betting this river instead of check/calling. The only possible bet size is obviously shoving here.

I don't understand...

Doesn't shoving the river just fold worse and get called by better?
 
S93

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I don't understand...

Doesn't shoving the river just fold worse and get called by better?
Villains gonna feel commited alot and call with his 8x and PPs but when we check we allow villain to check back with the hands we beat and jam the hands that beat us.
 
Double-A

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So, in my mind, this is not a question of whether or not to bet, it's a question of how much to bet. And I vote "small."

I'm struggling with this hand...

I see what you're saying about value betting the turn. It's a little confusing for me though, because we know the river card.

I'm confused about whether picking up the value from 77, 99, and 8x calling is worth increasing the pot and facing scary river cards.

I guess my question would be, if we value the turn and get called then what's the plan for the river? And, is that a good question at all?
 
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Villains gonna feel commited alot and call with his 8x and PPs but when we check we allow villain to check back with the hands we beat and jam the hands that beat us.

Ah, I get it. And as played we have to call his shove, right?
 
F Paulsson

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I'm struggling with this hand...

I see what you're saying about value betting the turn. It's a little confusing for me though, because we know the river card.

I'm confused about whether picking up the value from 77, 99, and 8x calling is worth increasing the pot and facing scary river cards.

I guess my question would be, if we value the turn and get called then what's the plan for the river? And, is that a good question at all?
Sometimes, think less. :)

So a scary (sorta) card came on the river, putting us in a pickle. Now consider what it means that that card is scary: "It improved our opponent's range." Now consider what that range must be if his hand was improved by the king.

Now consider what a horrible mistake it is not to valuebet against that range if he's calling with something that was improved by the king.

With 100bb stacks, I stand by my original comments. With 50bb stacks, I'm not so sure anymore, but I'd probably bet bigger on the turn and quite possibly get it in on the river.
 
Four Dogs

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I wouldn't be so certain that my TT wasn't good here but certainly not good enough to bet or raise with. My line here would be check call and hope to pick off a bluff.
 
BLieve

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Allow me to rephrase your conundrum for you:

On the turn, you're feeling pretty certain that your hand is in one of three categories: Crushed (by a set or somewhat unlikely JJ+), crushing (versus a smaller pair) or in decent shape versus overcards. You're out of position. Is there a reason to bet?

Yes there is: For value. You can bet/fold the turn if you think villain is very unlikely to raise with worse than what you have. Combinatorically, your opponent's range is of course heavily weighted towards hands that you beat, and unless you have reason to believe he's floating the flop with the intention of bluffing the turn if checked to, betting makes the most sense - but only if you beat his calling range.

How do we accomplish this? By betting small. You'll induce loose calls from small pocket pairs that feel they're getting a good price, and you'll induce folds from overcards that probably shouldn't fold if they knew what you had. It doesn't take much for him to fold ~15% equity with a hand like QJ and out of position that's not a bad proposition for you. So bet less than the $7.50; probably more like halfpot or even just $4. If you get raised, you lose a smaller amount than with your bet size, and you should get called more often by weaker hands than with your larger bet size.

So, in my mind, this is not a question of whether or not to bet, it's a question of how much to bet. And I vote "small."

Thank you FP I feel enlightened with your post. I also added a new word to my vocabulary. Combinatorically :D. However I have to assume that this took you a few minutes to analyze, I dont think anyone can run this kind of thinking in 15-30 seconds.

Engh, I could have sworn we were 100 deep. I thought Isildur was villain for some reason.
Does this change your analysis?
 
BelgoSuisse

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However I have to assume that this took you a few minutes to analyze, I dont think anyone can run this kind of thinking in 15-30 seconds.

actually, when you get used to it, it takes a couple of seconds at most. Once you know how to think about this because you analyzed this kind of problems offline, the actual thinking about a given hand is typically pretty fast.
 
F Paulsson

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Yeah, this doesn't actually take long. The conscious thought process about this hand is "unimproved PPs, 8x and sets will continue. Sets will raise. I can bet/fold. I want 44 to call. I bet small", pretty much.
 
Double-A

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Now consider what a horrible mistake it is not to valuebet against that range if he's calling with something that was improved by the king.

With 100bb stacks, I stand by my original comments. With 50bb stacks, I'm not so sure anymore, but I'd probably bet bigger on the turn and quite possibly get it in on the river.

Okay, I get it. I had to run it through PStove... Thanks.
 
KardKlub

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in my experiance this guy always seems to have JJ. I don't know why but it's like there afraid of overs to arrive on the turn so keep the pot small on the flop by calling.

And your turn bet sets stacks up perfect for him to call your shove.

As played though id bet every street like you did. then chuck it all in on the end hoping he had 99 or some crappy second pair.
 
IveGot0uts

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I think your image comes into play here. I'm a laggro donkey and barrel my face off, so people like floating me. I check call this river and get jammed on 90% of the time if I give the oppenent any credit for being awake. For the stack sizes I think you have to be just sticking it in on the river if you don't have an image that assures the river jam. 100bb deep I'm with Paulsson. Pot control but keep up aggression, you're definitely betting for value, probably still on the river even, just a bit thin.
 
lupefan

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Why do you think he is floating? Isnt the definition of a float to call the cbet on flop and take the pot down on the turn by him making the donk bet?
 
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