$50 NLHE Full Ring: Trips in 3b Pot can this really be a fold?

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hackmeplz

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Villain is 19/11 with a 4% 3b, he should see me as around 18/16 with a ~55% fold to 3b.
 
youregoodmate

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I dont know if its hindsight speaking but I quite like checking back the turn, unless we know hes capable of calling two streets with TT-QQ, which nits often arent.

Sickeningly annoying spot because he always has it here. Just always. Maybe we can find a fold but I couldnt.
 
A

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It's quite a small 3bet...
I can't help but feel it's something that took a stab at the flop and picked up a backdoor flush, like ThJh type hand. Howeverrrrrrrrr in terms of your hand v's his value range you're dead unless he has AA and seeing as it's more likely he has the value range then I'm not super grimmed out by folding. Do you think he has a bluff here >30% of the time? Thin thin.

As the last poster said I also like a check on the turn. We can successfully rep 22-88, 9x and get some good value on the river v's almost his entire range.

EDIT - Don't you crush 400-2knl?
 
acky100

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i think its a sighfold, people just don't bluff like this generally imo, more likely to take this line trying to be creative with AK or something because "he might put me on a fd and i dont have one he he he"

guess its an exploitative fold though
 
WVHillbilly

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Big 3bet pre. I think that's where you should be finding your fold.
 
hackmeplz

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Big 3bet pre. I think that's where you should be finding your fold.

It's actually on the small side no? My standard size in his spot is $3.50 and I feel like a lot of people make it $4-$4.50. I min opened the button and he's 3-betting 4% in FR so he's not a massive nit by any means. I'm definitely near the bottom of my defending range but folding seems pretty exploitable.
 
ChuckTs

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Fold pf, this is just such a gross hand to call with, even IP.

Turn bet is fine, we float this board a ton with gutshots and despite betting being a little unbalanced it doesn't matter if we think he can c/c with his TT or 9x or whatever or c/r as a bluff occasionally. That said his c/r range is still incredibly strong and I think I just fold.

Super polarized; KQ+/99 or backdoor draws, but with a %4 3bet he has very few semibluff combos. Only with a range as wide and silly as this is it a call:

Board: Kd 9s Kh 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.432% 55.57% 02.87% 422 21.75 { 99, AKs, AhQh, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 41.568% 38.70% 02.87% 294 21.75 { KcJd }

Being a minraised/~3x 3bet pot adds significance to the hand imo. Regs generally play a lot more carefully with this psychological barrier of overestimating our SPR and don't generally get as sloppy IME.

I also think your turn bet is way too big. His range is a lot more polarized once he checks turn and we're trying to eke value from his marginal pairs and induce bluffs, not isolate the nut/semibluff part of his range. I bet like a little over half pot at most.
 
hackmeplz

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Fold pf, this is just such a gross hand to call with, even IP.

This cannot possibly be true. I'm min opening something like 60% here if I'm folding KJo I'm pretty sure I'm throwing money down the drain. He has an overall 4% 3b at FR didn't have a huge sample but I'd assume his 3b in this spot is closer to 7-10%. With the odds I'm getting and being IP with money behind, I just can't imagine a call not being profitable here.

Turn bet is fine, we float this board a ton with gutshots and despite betting being a little unbalanced it doesn't matter if we think he can c/c with his TT or 9x or whatever or c/r as a bluff occasionally. That said his c/r range is still incredibly strong and I think I just fold.
If he has TT do you actually think he's ch/f turn with it? I figured when he checked turn he'd have a ton of TT-QQ/AA-type hands along with some weaker Kx. I thought maybe he wouldn't barrel KQ but that other than that the only thing I lose to is slowplayed monsters in a spot where it's pretty retarded to be slowplaying monsters (on the turn anyway). And then to ch/shove if he had a monster is possibly even more retarded, since the only actual reason to slowplay a monster is to get more money out of my bluffs. Generally when I know the only time I lose is if they're being retarded and that I would have gone broke against their retarded range if they'd played it better, I have a hard time folding just because I know I'm still winning against them overall even if I make this bad decision. It's not a good thought process at all which is why I posted it to see if people really do agree it's a fold when he ch/shoves this turn.

Super polarized; KQ+/99 or backdoor draws, but with a %4 3bet he has very few semibluff combos. Only with a range as wide and silly as this is it a call:

Board: Kd 9s Kh 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.432% 55.57% 02.87% 422 21.75 { 99, AKs, AhQh, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 41.568% 38.70% 02.87% 294 21.75 { KcJd }

I realize it's optimistic to put this many bluffs/semibluffs in his range but it's also optimistic to give him 100% of 99/AK/KQ being played this way.

Being a minraised/~3x 3bet pot adds significance to the hand imo. Regs generally play a lot more carefully with this psychological barrier of overestimating our SPR and don't generally get as sloppy IME.

I also think your turn bet is way too big. His range is a lot more polarized once he checks turn and we're trying to eke value from his marginal pairs and induce bluffs, not isolate the nut/semibluff part of his range. I bet like a little over half pot at most.

If he calls my turn bet the pot is $40.87 with $35.34 effective behind. Since his range in general is a lot of bluffcatchers when he checks the turn my range wants to put maximum pressure on him so I really want to be able to set up a river shove with my entire turn betting range. That's why I bet that sizing. As for the minr part you're probably right. I mean it's one of the biggest benefits to doing it in the first place and it's another reason why I think folding preflop just can't be correct. He's going to play his hand extremely face up and I'm going to be able to take advantage of that IP. That said if I'm going to donate him money when he always has the nuts maybe it is better to just fold pre lol.
 
John A

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This is one of those spots you'll start understanding more as you gain more experience. I think someone else said it in here, how many streets of value can you get with this hand vs a nit? I think 2 streets is max, so what's the difference between betting the turn and going for value on the river if he checks, or calling a reasonable bet? You should be considering that right away on the flop, and make a plan for your hand. Against donks/weak players, you're betting the turn all day with joy in your heart. But you always need to know what size pot and how much value can you get with this hand vs. this opponent.

Draws are going to be a small small portion of this kind of players range, so there's not a ton of incentive to have to get value from draws on the turn.
 
John A

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If he calls my turn bet the pot is $40.87 with $35.34 effective behind. Since his range in general is a lot of bluffcatchers when he checks the turn my range wants to put maximum pressure on him so I really want to be able to set up a river shove with my entire turn betting range. That's why I bet that sizing. As for the minr part you're probably right. I mean it's one of the biggest benefits to doing it in the first place and it's another reason why I think folding preflop just can't be correct. He's going to play his hand extremely face up and I'm going to be able to take advantage of that IP. That said if I'm going to donate him money when he always has the nuts maybe it is better to just fold pre lol.

Just read your post and it's pretty clear that you're not adjusting your thinking/strategy to your opponents. So if this was a decent good/tricky reg, I agree with what you're saying about why you played the hand the way you did. But it's not, and so this line of reasoning shouldn't apply imho.

Hope you see that as helpful.
 
hackmeplz

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The plan was definitely to bet turn shove river. Whether that was a good plan is another question.
 
John A

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The plan was definitely to bet turn shove river. Whether that was a good plan is another question.

That's good you had a plan. I think a couple of us are trying to point out that in future situations, you may want to consider a slightly different plan.
 
hackmeplz

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Are you honestly trying to tell me that you think betting turn/shoving river is bad? I can see you saying that calling his ch/shove was bad but I find it hard to believe bet turn/shove river not being a profitable line, especially given that some people seem to think that he takes this cb flop ch/shove turn line with 100% of his value combos.
 
John A

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Are you honestly trying to tell me that you think betting turn/shoving river is bad? I can see you saying that calling his ch/shove was bad but I find it hard to believe bet turn/shove river not being a profitable line, especially given that some people seem to think that he takes this cb flop ch/shove turn line with 100% of his value combos.

I'm pretty sure that's what I said, let me re-read..... yup. :) What was the purpose of posting this hand if you already are convinced you played it ideally?

I don't go for more than 1-2 streets of value against a nit in this spot unless I have a particular read or dynamic.
 
hackmeplz

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I posted it asking about the line after he ch/shoves. I guarantee if I hadn't posted the part about him ch/shoving on me 90% of this forum (probably the same people suggesting ch turn) would be saying bet turn shove river. I'm not trying to be arrogant but I'm positive against the average opponent checking turn here is going to be really bad, especially if we want to have any semblance of balance in our game. The part I was confused about (leaning towards fold given responses in this thread) was what to do the super rare times he ch/shoves on us.
 
TheKid84

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Honestly, I'd call that shove. Maybe because this isn't my money and I'm looking at someone else's hand? Maybe it's just because I'm a bad player? I'm not sure, but I'd call it.

From looking at it through his window, if he's holding 9s or AK/KQ/K9, I'd think you're faced with a reraise, but maybe not a complete shove.

The shove would maybe tell me some sort of high pocket pair hoping to buy the pot off you. I also noticed he started with $50 flat in the BB - was that his first hand at the table? He just tryin to steal a quick buck with no history on him maybe?

Those are my thoughts, good and bad :)
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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FR spots -.-

seriously though is the villain at all thinking? because thats kinda the deciding factor here since anyone decent isn't going to x/j value hands (AK/99/KQ?) here since a lot of our range is floats/air/mid pairs and a few Kx hands.

if he's a retard then Acky's point stands, but personally can't see this being a fold..

also Hacks right, he doesn't x/j turn and everyone in this thread votes for 3 streets 100%.. just because he x/j turn doesn't make that line wrong.
 
John A

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I posted it asking about the line after he ch/shoves. I guarantee if I hadn't posted the part about him ch/shoving on me 90% of this forum (probably the same people suggesting ch turn) would be saying bet turn shove river. I'm not trying to be arrogant but I'm positive against the average opponent checking turn here is going to be really bad, especially if we want to have any semblance of balance in our game. The part I was confused about (leaning towards fold given responses in this thread) was what to do the super rare times he ch/shoves on us.

In general I'd agree with your statement, but you're completely missing the point. He's not the average player, and when you are planning/betting a hand, you need to understand how to get max value against each player type you're facing. If you think you can get 3 streets of value against someone raising 11% of their hands, and 3-betting 4%, which is a 99+/AQs+ I don't think you're fully thinking this through imho.

As the players you face get more sophisticated, checking the turn for delayed bluffs and for value become great lines. Right now you're facing the question, can I get 3 streets of value against TT-QQ/AA if I bet turn and jam river? The answer is no.

Here's why:
1) Only a % of the time those hands will call,
2) Add that in with the times you're behind
3) You can squeeze extra value a larger percentage of the time from more of their pocket pairs
4) AND allow your opponent to hit a second best hand like Ax
5) and not stack off with the worst of it...

Now if you think, and it may be completely correct, because 19/11 is kind of fishy, that you can absolutely get 3 streets, then bet the turn. I don't know anything else about this opponent other than what you offered, which isn't much.
 
theskillzdatklls

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i play the hand the same and never fold in a million years. gl.

edit: by default i bet the turn smaller than you with anything though.
 
hackmeplz

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raising 11% of their hands, and 3-betting 4%, which is a 99+/AQs+ I don't think you're fully thinking this through imho.

For the most part what you say makes sense, but I figured I'd discuss this. Do you play much FR? At FR a 4% 3b is actually about normal/maybe slightly low. I think his 3b against a button minr will be astronomically higher than his average 3b which includes UTG opens and such. I'd imagine the average reg who 3-bets 4% probably 3-bets between 7 and 10% in this spot.

As the players you face get more sophisticated, checking the turn for delayed bluffs and for value become great lines. Right now you're facing the question, can I get 3 streets of value against TT-QQ/AA if I bet turn and jam river? The answer is no.

I disagree.

Here's why:
1) Only a % of the time those hands will call,
2) Add that in with the times you're behind
3) You can squeeze extra value a larger percentage of the time from more of their pocket pairs
4) AND allow your opponent to hit a second best hand like Ax
5) and not stack off with the worst of it...
1. Of course, although I figure that % is something like 90%
2. Sure, but I figure that number is actually really low, and if he ch/jams them rather than ch/c ch/c my jam that makes it even better for me if I can fold to the ch/jam.
3. Fair point, especially since there are no Ax gutters that can ch/c this turn, but I think there are very few times villain will be calling A high/2x if we ch turn bet river.
4. Valid as well, but most of his hands are going to have 3 outs to hit a hand to call at very best.
5. That's basically restating #2, but sure

Basically my logic is that I think his range is almost entirely composed of air and 9x/super-weak Kx/TT-QQ/AA. Assuming the average 19/11 will never take the cb/ch/bet river line in a 3b pot as a bluff, we can basically ignore the air. What does:

1. Our hand
2. Our range

want to do against that range? Now obviously we could debate just how many combos of AK/KQ/99 we can include and that's definitely relevant, but hopefully you can see where my thinking is pretty sound. Against a range of almost entirely bluffcatchers against our range, and I mentioned earlier but in a spot it's absolutely retarded to check AK/KQ/99 on the turn against our range, we definitely want to be betting on the big side with our entire range. Maybe with our specific hand we want to bet a bit smaller then a bit smaller than a shove on the river to get more calls, I'm not sure.

Now if you think, and it may be completely correct, because 19/11 is kind of fishy, that you can absolutely get 3 streets, then bet the turn. I don't know anything else about this opponent other than what you offered, which isn't much.

This was one of the first times I'd played 50nl when I was not drunk in forever (was 20-tabling off-peak so had to do 50-400nl to get enough tables) so I would hardly have any hands on most regs at that stake. I also don't cheat so don't have any datamined hands.
 
hackmeplz

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John A

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For the most part what you say makes sense, but I figured I'd discuss this. Do you play much FR? At FR a 4% 3b is actually about normal/maybe slightly low. I think his 3b against a button minr will be astronomically higher than his average 3b which includes UTG opens and such. I'd imagine the average reg who 3-bets 4% probably 3-bets between 7 and 10% in this spot.



I disagree.


1. Of course, although I figure that % is something like 90%
2. Sure, but I figure that number is actually really low, and if he ch/jams them rather than ch/c ch/c my jam that makes it even better for me if I can fold to the ch/jam.
3. Fair point, especially since there are no Ax gutters that can ch/c this turn, but I think there are very few times villain will be calling A high/2x if we ch turn bet river.
4. Valid as well, but most of his hands are going to have 3 outs to hit a hand to call at very best.
5. That's basically restating #2, but sure

Basically my logic is that I think his range is almost entirely composed of air and 9x/super-weak Kx/TT-QQ/AA. Assuming the average 19/11 will never take the cb/ch/bet river line in a 3b pot as a bluff, we can basically ignore the air. What does:

1. Our hand
2. Our range

want to do against that range? Now obviously we could debate just how many combos of AK/KQ/99 we can include and that's definitely relevant, but hopefully you can see where my thinking is pretty sound. Against a range of almost entirely bluffcatchers against our range, and I mentioned earlier but in a spot it's absolutely retarded to check AK/KQ/99 on the turn against our range, we definitely want to be betting on the big side with our entire range. Maybe with our specific hand we want to bet a bit smaller then a bit smaller than a shove on the river to get more calls, I'm not sure.



This was one of the first times I'd played 50nl when I was not drunk in forever (was 20-tabling off-peak so had to do 50-400nl to get enough tables) so I would hardly have any hands on most regs at that stake. I also don't cheat so don't have any datamined hands.

No offense honestly hack... you're probably a phenomenal poker player, probably much better than me. But the fact that you are questioning if you should fold once you bet the turn shows that you aren't really sure what you're doing in a lot of spots. No winning 200nl player is going to question whether they should bet fold the turn here.

So you can have your opinion, I was just trying to help, and I'll have mine.
 
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hackmeplz

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And I thank you for the help, I welcome any and all comments I know sometimes I can come off a bit arrogant that's just kind of my writing style I present why I did what I did and the reasons and if people can show me where my logic is flawed I can learn something and learn to play better. Also I asked people not on CC and although the majority of people said to probably just lol and fold I had several players that beat 1knl saying snapcall, so I'm going to disagree with your claim that any winning 200nl player is going to do anything but fold turn once we bet. I'm pretty convinced that if we're trying to play gto we should call but given that 50nl 19/11's are way more likely to be dumb and do this with nutted hands (you do agree his line is absolutely retarded right? I did call and he had AK) than to get out of line and do this with a ton of weak draws/air it's pretty likely to be a fold in practice.
 
John A

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And I thank you for the help, I welcome any and all comments I know sometimes I can come off a bit arrogant that's just kind of my writing style I present why I did what I did and the reasons and if people can show me where my logic is flawed I can learn something and learn to play better. Also I asked people not on CC and although the majority of people said to probably just lol and fold I had several players that beat 1knl saying snapcall, so I'm going to disagree with your claim that any winning 200nl player is going to do anything but fold turn once we bet. I'm pretty convinced that if we're trying to play gto we should call but given that 50nl 19/11's are way more likely to be dumb and do this with nutted hands (you do agree his line is absolutely retarded right? I did call and he had AK) than to get out of line and do this with a ton of weak draws/air it's pretty likely to be a fold in practice.

lol.... sorry man, but this thread is hilarious, and I guess has become a giant waste of my time. But I always start out with high hopes.

My best advice to you, if you really have a strong desire to learn is read back through this thread and your responses. I ask you why you posted in the first place, and it was because you weren't sure about calling the hand. I assumed it was about whether you should be betting the turn, because that was really the only play in question (perhaps besides pre-flop). And the reason I even asked that is because there's no way against any semblance of a hand range you can fold getting 2:1 on the turn. 1knl players aren't saying that just because they see a wider range in these spots on average, it's because unless you put him ONLY on AK/KQ/99 you have to call.

Secondly, I started by pointing out this is WHY you check the turn and go for value on the river against this kind of opponent, but you argued that the range is much wider, but now you argue that it's not.

So.... good luck to you man.
 
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