$50 NLHE Full Ring: Trips Blinds v Button facing river shove

$50 NL HE Full Ring: Trips Blinds v Button facing river shove

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 16/15/3.8

Villian steals 56% from the button, so I didnt have an idea of putting him on
a range as I struggle with that anyway. Villians river aggro is 0.0 here so what do we make of this shove?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP2: $57.35 (114.7 bb)
MP3: $54.30 (108.6 bb)
CO: $29.25 (58.5 bb)
BTN: $50.45 (100.9 bb)
SB: $26.40 (52.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $53.85 (107.7 bb)
UTG+1: $53.80 (107.6 bb)
MP1: $52.50 (105 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with J:diamond: K:spade:
5 folds, BTN raises to $2, SB folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) K:heart: Q:club: K:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.25) A:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2

River: ($8.25) 4:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BTN raises to $46.45 and is all-in, Hero ??

Boats, worse Kings, or an Ace that thinks he's pushing you off a chop.

I call. If he has you beat it's pretty much a cooler.

is it still a call with his river aggro of 0?

Jurn8 said:

is it still a call with his river aggro of 0?

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How many hands did you have on the guy? Anything less than several thousand and you probably haven't seen him get to enough rivers to know.

hmm ok good point, so this is a call right?

I can't really reply to this hand because we already talked about it on AIM...but I'm wondering if we can find a fold here regardless. What really worse kings are in his range that he's shoving this river with?

The Shrog said:

I can't really reply to this hand because we already talked about it on AIM...but I'm wondering if we can find a fold here regardless. What really worse kings are in his range that he's shoving this river with?

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Well his steal % is high enough that he has any K in his preflop range. How many of those that we beat he shoves with? At least a few. Does he really play anything we're afraid of, other than KQ, like this on the flop though?

Well his steal % is high enough that he has any K in his preflop range. How many of those that we beat he shoves with? At least a few. Does he really play anything we're afraid of, other than KQ, like this on the flop though?

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What about QQ? He might even check 10J behind on the flop...not sure if he'll shove the river with it though.

The Shrog said:

What about QQ? He might even check 10J behind on the flop...not sure if he'll shove the river with it though.

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QQ is also possible but he should probably still bet it on the flop. JT should also bet the flop to try to take it down while he still has decent equity and we likely have nothing.

QQ is also possible but he should probably still bet it on the flop. JT should also bet the flop to try to take it down while he still has decent equity and we likely have nothing.

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Yea, I think some players might check the flop with QQ, the J10 though probably bets. It just seems to me like this guy is tight enough not to spaz out and shove with worse hands.

he isnt that tight, he steals 56% over like 300 hands so all these sorts of hands are in his range tbh.

Its just weird that he spazs and shoves on us

whats his cbet %? I cant see what hands he can conceivably have that we beat since i doubt he checks flop and shoves river with something like k,9 ince he just is only going to be called by hands that beat him. I fold here and feel good about it

I don't really like calling preflop. I'd rather 3bet or fold, tbh.

Villain not cbetting flop is kinda weird. I guess it's either a monster who thinks he crushes the board or a medium pair with some showdown value. Would need to know his cbet%.

As played, i'd probably go for a fold. Given pot odds, villain needs to bluff a lot for calling to be profitable. I'd need some read that he likes to spaz like that before comitting a stack here.

BelgoSuisse said:

I don't really like calling preflop. I'd rather 3bet or fold, tbh.

Villain not cbetting flop is kinda weird. I guess it's either a monster who thinks he crushes the board or a medium pair with some showdown value. Would need to know his cbet%.

As played, i'd probably go for a fold. Given pot odds, villain needs to bluff a lot for calling to be profitable. I'd need some read that he likes to spaz like that before comitting a stack here.

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are we not losing value if we 3bet and he just folds though?

Jurn8 said:

are we not losing value if we 3bet and he just folds though?

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No, we're not losing any value when we fold hands that have between 40 and 60% equity against ours and we avoid playing a so-so hand out of position without the initiative.

We're only losing value when villain 4bets us light, but i need some evidence that villain does that before i adjust.

Some good generalizations w/ 3betting:

Against players who call 3bets too light (and don't 4bet often enough) we can open our range to include hands like KJ and whatever we feel beats his range. If he's weak postflop as well, then we can open even wider to take advantage of that and cbet him off hands.

If he's more of a 4bet/fold player then that's when we start flatting hands like KJ that we know are ahead of his range but can't stand a 4bet. ie we 3bet only the hands we're ready to shove over a 4bet, flat everything that we feel beats his range, and fold everything else.

On a side note, when villain opens 56% on the BTN and we have KJo, our preflop equity vs. his range is 55%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.518% 42.92% 01.59% 5865160116 217856976.00 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 1: 55.482% 53.89% 01.59% 7363311852 217856976.00 { KJo }

That is most certainly not a compelling reason to want to call and play the hand out of position. Folding is fine, 3betting from time to time is most certainly immediately profitable, but i would only call if I believe villain has serious post-flop leaks that i'm good enough to be able to exploit out of position.

BelgoSuisse said:

No, we're not losing any value when we fold hands that have between 40 and 60% equity against ours and we avoid playing a so-so hand out of position without the initiative.

We're only losing value when villain 4bets us light, but i need some evidence that villain does that before i adjust.

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Ok I see your point guys here which is cool, so with these "so so"/Marginal good hands like KJ/K10/QJ/KQ those types, we can 3bet profitably OOP from stealing positions?

Also good point made by chuck regarding the two different types of stealers and again we can adjust ranges to see if we 3bet these marginal hands or flat them because they are ahead of villians range and if they are going to 4bet or fold.

Also the second player that chuck describes here is what I thought villian was which is why I flatted because KJ is way ahead of a 56% range right

Jurn8 said:

Ok I see your point guys here which is cool, so with these "so so"/Marginal good hands like KJ/K10/QJ/KQ those types, we can 3bet profitably OOP from stealing positions?

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Against most villains, you can 3bet any two cards for immediate profit when they open on the button. Fold equity is enough. you can't just 3bet all the time.

Also the second player that chuck describes here is what I thought villian was which is why I flatted because KJ is way ahead of a 56% range right

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We're really not that much ahead. You need to know that villain spews by barreling air so that you can call him lightish, or that he can get stupid with top pair shitty kicker, or that he folds really well when you min-raise his cbets so that you can do that with air. Against anyone who is decent, calling is just going to put you in a lot of trouble. Playing oop with a hand where you always have the risk of being dominated is not a great way to make money.

say if was AQ would you be flatting that in this spot?

Jurn8 said:

say if was AQ would you be flatting that in this spot?

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Depends on villain. If he calls a lot of 3bets, 3betting for value is fine. If he folds a lot, flatting for deception is nice. We're never folding, obviously.

Note that AQ is something like a 64% favorite against his range, while KJ was only 55%. That's a huge difference.

If he steals a lot and doesn't call a lot of 3-bets I don't see how you can do anything but flat this preflop. You obviously have to make plays sometimes when you miss because the main reason you call here is because he has a wide range. Belgo's probably right that it's profitable to 3-bet it, but I think flatting it is more profitable against most opponents. Of course if he likes calling 3-bets with weak SCs and stuff like that 3-bet him all day. But if he's 4-bet or folding in this spot as most people do I see no reason to 3-bet KJ in this spot.

zachvac said:

I see no reason to 3-bet KJ in this spot.

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And you really think flatting >> folding here?

What kind of an edge do you need versus villain's range to make flatting profitable despite of us having neither the initiative nor position? Do you really think being 55% favorite vs. villain's range is enough?

Our equity percentage means absolutely nothing at this point. Our hand may only be 55-45 against his range but we can play it much better. Also talking about our equity against his range then mentioning initiative as a separate advantage he has is kinda dumb because the only advantage initiative gives you involves ranges and perceived ranges. I can definitely tell you it has been profitable for me. Sure playing oop is tougher, but if they steal wide they will have a ton of hands that just don't play well postflop and assuming we're not just playing fit or fold we can make some money when we both hit (because with like KJ when we flop TP we usually have the better hand against a wide stealer) and win without the best hand a lot of the time. Obviously it also depends on the opponent I don't do this as much against competent opponents who can outplay me postflop but against the average player there is definitely an edge to be had playing broadway hands oop against bad players with wide ranges.

zachvac said:

but we can play it much better.

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Why? We have a divine right to play much better than villains? Villain here is playing 16/15/4 while stealing a lot. Doesn't look like a fish to me.

I agree about calling when we're playing against a fish, just because the more hands we play against fishes the better. But against a decent player, i much prefer folding.