$50 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK + Qhi FD vs reraise on turn

eNTy

eNTy

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$50 NL HE Full Ring: TPTK + Qhi FD vs reraise on turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 11/8/2

60 hands, he has 3bet me short before when I stole from button, I folded, and reraised my cbet on flop before that where I also folded.

I wasn't quite sure if he was playing back at me or just had cards before, I decided it was safer to go with cards.

Now this hand I flop pretty decent. With my flushdraw I have no problem cbetting. I turn TPTK so I def don't mind barreling. Imo he can have many hands that I beat at this point. Sure he could have a set or two pair or even a flopped flush but it is unlikely.

Now I'm not sure about my line on turn. Is it profitable to shove over him here ?
I'm not sure but I think we can get worse hands to call. He could possibly have a naked K/A high flushdraw but if he'd call with it is another matter.
If he did have that I would be in the lead right, by a lot or a little ?

If we do that are we essentially turning our hand into a bluff ?
How would you play the turn.

SB: $50.85 (101.7 bb)
BB: $57.50 (115 bb)
UTG+2: $21.40 (42.8 bb)
MP1: $96.95 (193.9 bb)
MP2: $53.15 (106.3 bb)
MP3: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $53.60 (107.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with Q:spade: A:diamond:
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) J:spade: 2:spade: 5:spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.25) Q:heart: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $16, Hero ??
 
JimmyBrizzy

JimmyBrizzy

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I think you've got to have this shove fold out his hands >40% if you turn this into a semi-bluff and think he might have a set, two pair, etc... that seems a little high for bluffing. Of course theres also the chance of him calling with worse or other draws, so I'm not really sure what's correct here...but I think I instinctively just push (haha, great advice, right?)

Honestly what I'm wondering more about is the c-bet on this flop... I think I check behind, but I'd like to hear why that's not the right move against this player...
 
JimmyBrizzy

JimmyBrizzy

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hahaha, good question.... I was going to figure out what success rate you'd need on a shove with a flush draw being your primary means of winning...

I was using 35% equity (Turn + River) not 20% (River)....so it turned out a lot more favorable at first, but it was getting the money in on the flop with the size of the pot before your last action on the turn....DOHH!

My attention to detail and work ethic when coupled with my mathematical skills might be why I am a 5NL reg for life!!!!!
 
tenbob

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Baluga's Theorem - Turn check/raises should scare you.

Essentially that's it, I fully expect a shove to get called here. He is looking to get in here lots. I just fold unless I have a good read that he can c/r this turn with air.
 
eNTy

eNTy

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Baluga's Theorem - Turn check/raises should scare you.

Essentially that's it, I fully expect a shove to get called here. He is looking to get in here lots. I just fold unless I have a good read that he can c/r this turn with air.

I know that theorem but it makes no sense here.

Why would he flat a set on an all spade flop ?
If he has a set he never has a spade and thus its very unlikely he would flat that flop imo, especially since he already showed he can make flop reraises earlier.
 
JimmyBrizzy

JimmyBrizzy

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I know that theorem but it makes no sense here.

Why would he flat a set on an all spade flop ?
If he has a set he never has a spade and thus its very unlikely he would flat that flop imo, especially since he already showed he can make flop reraises earlier.

Kinda what I was thinking...

I mean a set normally raises that flop, right? What kind of makes sense is an AsJx (Or possibly AsX for that matter), KsQx type of hand....AK along with any 10's-AA's I think would normally 3-bet and this player seems like he understands poker at least a little bit.

I dunno, I been thinking about this hand too damn long... I think I just give up and switch tables.
 
tenbob

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Hands that play like this are not necessarily sets, and even with a set, I'm seeing more and more players take unusual lines with them.

Made flushes play this way, AQ, QJ, and all sets. Problem with making your flush is that you wont get called if your ahead on the river. Really easy push/fold spot, and really I'm on the side of fold, then again, you know this, I'm a nit.
 
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switch0723

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Made flushes play this way, AQ, QJ, and all sets. Problem with making your flush is that you wont get called if your ahead on the river. Really easy push/fold spot, and really I'm on the side of fold, then again, you know this, I'm a nit.

This is pretty much the same advice i gave, although without the 'clear push fold spot' part on the basis that if we have reason to believe he is bluffing or whatever which he is rarely doing in the first place imo, calling is better than shoving becuase a shove folds out 0 hands that beat us, and doesnt get called by worse, except AsQ maybe. In that case i think calling turn then river is better than shoving, but i fold anyway
 
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grvicious

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you seriously have to fold here against a 11/8. thats pretty nitty stats and what hand can you honestly beat right now. nothing o ok
 
zachvac

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lol wow as nitty as it sounds I think this is almost always QJ/flopped flush and I'd lean towards folding here. Note if you had As I'd like a shove much much more although it'd still be close. Considering you have the non-nut draw here though in a spot where you're almost always behind I'm pretty sure this is a fold. Like literally the only hand you beat is a bluff now. Maybe he's good enough to turn Jx with a spade into a semibluff? Maybe other Asx one-pair hands? Problem is even most of his bluffs have equity against us. The only way I'd be shipping here is if he's shown he can bluff raise complete air here. He's a nit and this is a bad board to bluff anyway. So yeah I think this is actually a fold. Flop is fine btw imo as is turn. Just gotta fold now because you're like never ahead.
 
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