$50 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK OOP vs nitty reg.

$50 NL HE Full Ring: TPTK OOP vs nitty reg.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 10/7/3.6

I'm thinking that this is a terribad spot. My instinct is just to fold here, but whats putting me off is his raise 3bet% is 31%. Any merits to raising here to ~$18, and folding to a shove.

Hand History:

BB: $31.05 (62.1 bb)
UTG+1: $49.75 (99.5 bb)
Hero (MP1): $53 (106 bb)
MP2: $61.95 (123.9 bb)
MP3: $61.95 (123.9 bb)
CO: $56.05 (112.1 bb)
BTN: $56.90 (113.8 bb)
SB: $46.05 (92.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with A K
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 3 A 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $8, Hero

Thank you bob. I was literally just about to randomly append to a post a request for a 50NL FR hand to get me braining before a session.

I think the important factor here becomes your stats. Depending on what you look like I'm jamming, or calling. I'd only be looking to fold if I had a nitty image, or figured this guy for total autopilot with no looking at my stats. I've moved up to 50NL relatively recently, but I see the nitball regs stacking of with top pair type holdings readily on these boards if they have any reason to say you're full of it.

Their aj+ is looking to defend against fdraw and other pocket pairs are just calling you a liar to your face. Sets are in his range, but he's not going to go that fast with a set. I say stack off happily.

Sample size? The raise flop c-bet stat might not be significant.

3-betting and folding to a shove is pretty criminal as draws and worse aces may be in his range. And if villain is bluffing, call and let him spew more. I prolly just dump this.

Sample is 14K hands or so, but considering he calls very little preflop this stat is likely well away from convergence. Im not on the table long, maybe 4 orbits but i was playing pretty nitty, but he prob has me as a 18/12 or something.

This is gonna be sets or flushdraws alot and since the Ad is allready out there means there is alot less flushdraws in his range then if it where the Kd on the board imo.

Board: 3d Ad 7h
Wins Ties equity
62.38% 0.42% 62.80% ( AsKh )
36.78% 0.42% 37.20% ( 33,77,KdQd,QJd,TJd,AQ,AJ )

Well if this range is any wher close then we obvs cant fold.
I guess we could maybe cut of AJ and TJ/QJd?

Whats his prf 3bet% btw?

Villain is incapable of calling with 54s, 56s, 78s, 67s?

No but i dont expect it all to often from a nit facing a mp raise.
You disagree?
If he where btn facing a utg raise id think it be alot more likly though.

I almost always peel one and 're-evaluate' turn. Basically I often see even the nittiest of nits bluff raise spots like this from time to time, and they almost never follow through on the turn/river. So I'm pretty happy peeling one and giving up on most turns if he keeps firing.

3betting the flop and folding to a shove doesn't make sense - it folds out his bluffs, gives him a chance to jam with his draws, and obviously induces from better hands. I might like raise/calling if i thought he was an aggressive reg who might spazz with AJ or a flush draw or even a complete bluff since we're repping like sets only he might think we're full of it.

What does his raise 3bet % have to do with this hand? Was that a typo for raise cbet %?

sindri_93 said:

You disagree?

Click to expand...

I have no idea, I don't play full ring. 6-max, I never fold TPTK to just one raise from a semi-competent player. I'll dump it vs. fish or super nits, but I don't think we're dealing with either of those here.

Raise/folding the flop is very very bad. Like, it allows him to fold all inferior hands and bluffs, and jam all draws (and get us to fold) and blows up the pot for sets.

I'd probably call and check the turn. A lot of nitty villains will check behind their draws (including gutshot + FD ones) for a free card when they are in position and it doesn't look like we will fold our Ace. they'll also check behind inferior Aces. If this happens and the river bricks I value bet. If they continue their aggression on the turn I fold giving them 77 or 33. If this was a donk/bad player/villain that overvalued hands I'd obviously just CRAI on a blank turn

Obviously meta wise we can't always do this since if villains catch on they will just bully us consistently, but since (especially at 50NL) most villains dont expect player to fold AK in this spot like -- ever, they'll slow down themselves

I'm late into this obv, but I'm inclined pretty much as Chuck says. Even from a nit there's a chance that this is air/flush draw/an Ace that we beat, which is a lot more hands than the obvious set that's afraid of the flush draw. Though since you've raised from early it's less likely that you have the flush draw, especially as Sindri notes the Ace of the flush is already out there.

c9h13no3 said:

Villain is incapable of calling with 54s, 56s, 78s, 67s?

Click to expand...

10/7's don't have these in their CC range. He also likely folds all the suited connectors Sindri assigned him. Nits calling with JTs, QJs, and even KQs is VERY unlikely anywhere but the button imo.

Honestly it sucks but I think you can just fold this. The best you hope for here is a split pot.

Edit: Is that supposed to be his raise cbet% that's 31%? If so, I don't think you can fold because he's likely just raising tons of flops and exploiting his nit image.